While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, [...]
Everything you say is true, but I have little hope that you will ever convince him of that.
I see people using the "bet small until you see N the same in a row, then bet high that the streak will end" technique a lot on Just-Dice. Usually they wait for the streak and then start Martingale betting.
What's funny is that it often works very well.
The reason for this is that Martingale *does* work very well until you hit a streak that's too long, and if you play enough times you will hit that streak.
But when you wait for a streak before you even start, it has the side effect of really reducing the number of real bets you can make per hour, which really increases the time until you reach a streak that busts you.
So the described strategy "works" in a sense, in that Martingale is a horrible strategy, and waiting for a certain condition to occur before starting each Martingale progression means you play less.
People see this, and think that the magic of waiting for a streak in the dust bets is what it working, whereas smoking a cigarette or reciting the Lord's Prayer between each bet would "work" just as well, to the extent that both would slow you down.
Yes; it is amazing to see how many players think they can change the outcome by the way they bet or when they bet
If you are going to use 100BTC to play a martingale 1BTC 2BTC ect. and you decide you will stop after 50BTC have been won you have better odds betting 100BTC @ 1.5 once
I was thinking about that yesterday looking at a player bet strange amounts in a strange order then say he played badly on the chat after he lost; you said it doesn't make sense to allow autobeting but it does because probably more than 50% of the players don't think in terms of probability but in other terms
