the original kelly bet also had a very high risk of bankruptcy. Something like 8% was what i calculated... Kelly is the path to quickest riches but also EXTREMELY risky.
Are you bearing in mind that the max profit per bet is *always* 1% of the total bankroll, and so it decreases as the bankroll decreases?
I don't think you can really put a number on "risk of bankruptcy" in such a situation. You can work out the chance of someone taking half the bankroll - say it's 10%. But then the chance of them taking half of what's left, taking it down to 25% of the starting roll is another 10%, making it 1% overall. And so on. The chance of halving it again to 12.5% is another 10%, for a 0.1% chance overall, etc.
At which point do you consider "bankruptcy" when all they can do is keep halving the bankroll?
(Note that the 10% here is completely made up - I've no idea what the real number is. But nakowa was incredibly lucky and "only" took us down 14% one week and 12% the next. I expect your 8% is far too high).
You bankroll can never hit 0, but if you are super super super super super ..... super super unlucky the bankroll can get so small, and therefore the max bet so small that no one will play and then you aren't bankrupt according to the rules of monopoly, but you also aren't making any moey.
