Topic: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? - page 5. (Read 944 times)

x10? I did even up  23x losing streak in dice with the minimal base bet amount on using up martingale.Sooner or later on using up this method it will just bust up your entire balance on an instant when a long losing streak hits you.No matter how big your bankroll is but there were people who do really force out therselves to use up this strategy because of believing that this could work.

You've earned 40$ after 21m bets while risking 750 $ if martingale will go too far? With regular martingale ~30% gamblers are lucky enough to double. You are far from doubling. Even if you will double your portfolio (earn 15 times more than you have already earned) you could be in those 30% lucky gamblers - it does not proof that your strategy is working. In fact if you will proof that it works you will open door to new mathematics in which 1+1=/2 because simple math proofs that it is impossible to beat casino.

Agreed, at times we might apply any of the strategy and we experience a coincidence. Upon the same we cannot come to an conclusion that strategy works good. This is completely wrong, and I believe gambling is all about luck and a small portion depends on our self research to know tricks of playing. Beyond this very few returns home with a bag full of winning amount... Lol

Your test result on the same calculation method for martingale, in which after you lose, multiply by x. That's one of the way to do martingale and known to be failed early.

Check the following stat of my own martingale method (not publicity exist yet and no i don't publish it) and tell me how it can survive (21 million bets+).
https://imgur.com/a/1SIspbc

If you want to prove more, I will get a screenshot after it reach 100m bets, keep follow up since it's real betting thus taking like 10-11 months to have that.

Keep chasing your loses will ruin your bankroll. Martingale strategy might work for those who knows how patience works inside this activity. Whenever you use this method, always pay attention with how you find your little advantage against the house. Never to be greedy, Martingale will be a trap for you to keep losing your money while using this strategy.

Be very careful and be emotionless while playing the game to avoid making mistakes.

I've coded a simulation (brute force) in which i've tested martingale:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.49832531

And also i'm running a thread in which i'm coding simulation of every strategy given by community to show that none is better than single bet strategy (all your money in single bet, double or go home with 0)

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52217862

This is a long and good analysis that martingale is not a sure way method OP has given full details and analysis, every player get hooked on Martingale because of this so-called mathematical calculation but in the end, it's not going to work as there is a long drought of losing a bet, I have experienced that so many times using Martingale.

I do not know the calculations but I do know that it will not help you to win or get back what you had lost. It is to gamble for fun than to earn money because we all know that we will end up losing, at least if we are having fun, that don't really matter.

For those who does not experience using this method, they might think that it will improve their chance of winning because they might think losing x10 in a row is impossible. But, for people like me, I would say it's not a working method, hence it will never increase the chance of winning in dice game, in fact, I would call this a recipe for disaster as it's like chasing your loses until you got rekt.

That's the main reason for every one to lose, it does not need to do so, there is odd to be used as martingale base rather than bet stake. And "double every next bet" is a for sure lose, with combination of odd, and increase enough bet size it may be as less as 0.01% is enough to recover loss and earn some gains. Another case where majority of people don't realize that with the same capital betting on 50% chance will cause the whole balance to be lost easier than 10% chance.

Also, the statement "you will lose in long lerm" is correct but not 100%, the question here is how long it is, "standard long" may be a week 24/7, but it may be extended as long as 1 year or 10 years. If you managed to have a strategy that can stretch 10 years 24/7 straight.. that could be enough since you may have option to quit with profit during the time.

Martingale is an aggressive strategy where you double every next bet. It works sometimes, but not forever, sooner or later you stumble upon some losing streak and you lost everything you have.
If you wish to win in gambling you need to play aggressive and you need to bet higher after you lose. Talking about this in few lines is impossible, cause everything depends from the game you play, your bankroll and of course what kind of odds you prefer to bet on. I tried many strategies and non of them works entire night, that`s why I advise to mix your strategies, to change them often, to change games you play as much as possible, same like you need to change odds you bet on, as much often as you are capable. Try playing with bigger amounts and lower odds, then try to hit some big odd with small bet, you need to have some feeling about what will happen next and try to predict the outcome.

Ain't know much this strategy the "Martingale strategy", this is such quite tempted to gamblers and interesting concept! Especially in gambling, it's easy to apply and everyone can benefit out of it. But the fact that we should know there's no strategy in gambling, martingale strategies are in such a fantasy state that it is can't even be called a realistic strategy. It is risky and may cause massive losses.

Personally and to be honest, I won't use this strategy rather than a basic strategy will be fine, and apply some techniques is much better.

By experience, it doesn't really help one to win more. It only gives you the wrong notion of chasing after your losses which often results into bad breaks. It may work on the first few tries but over time, you would incur more losses rather than earning some profit, so I suggest anyone playing dice games to stop doing the said method no matter how 'tweaked' it gets.

Regardless on how you analyze, that strategy would never work long term, it will only work if you are betting on games that has no house edge, but in dice particularly there's no chance to will win consistently.

I have avoided this kind of strategy, because personally I experience that my bankroll got busted in an instant, so I don't recommend this one, it will only make you greedy and will loss the fun in gambling.

It depend on how do you perform multiply after each lose, I myself did it differently which is not "multiply the stake by x % after each lose" but:
- Given B as current running balance (capital & profit).
- Given D as the biggest drawdown (total cummulative loss of the losing streak before a win).
- With above values, maintain bets with appropriate stake sizes so that the expression B > D * 2 remain true all the time.

The tricky part is to find out best multiply value, it is not too common of "multiply by x2 after each loss on 50% win chance" but, basically after a rare losing streak occured, let call it LS your profit after winning that streak your balance basically can sustain LS + 1 and also maintaining above expression B > D * 2. It's a kind of "curve fitting" in Excel which more than one of you may hear of in which there is always a gap between your running balance and the cost/drawdown of the losing streak. Another variable to look for which is total earned/profit versus total wagered, from which I've done in simulation & real playing on dice game it is maintained at 7.8% to 8.0% of wagered amount. The more the wager amount increased the more profit made (to maintain that 7.8% - 8.0% ratio) and it always be B > D * 2. A requirement is the casino chosen for your play must have house edge less than this earned rate.

Recall rare losing streak, split it further into common rare losing streaks and extremely rare losing streaks where your running balance should be able to sustain the common ones (B > D * 2), and the extremely rare one is base on luck, but delay it as long as possible (basically 1 in 1 billion bets). To have this kind of bet count, utilize simulation mode of those bots available today or write yourself a provably fair number generator and test against it.

In summary, it's not "martingale increase your chance of winning" but "delay the losing chance of all captital & profit to the minimum or delay it as long as you can". Since above 1 billion bets in real life, with asumption of a casino that support 4 bets per second (250ms per request), you can sustain 1000000000/4/3600/24 = 2893 days. Almost 8 years and who know you might quit in between in the green (given a scenario that you did not get bursted too early, well it's extremely unlucky), test out first, utilize multiple instances with the simulation mode of bots to reduce testing time.
 

it has been proven so many times and with so many posts, that it's not going to work, but people still believe that it does, and there were some gamblers proving it otherwise, they may have a success in one day but it doesn't guaranty that it will go on and you will be lucky to implement it daily and win.

It only deceives you to think that this strategy can make you win.It is discussed many times in many threads here but the overall conclusion is always the same and is that you cannot win and martingale does not increase your chance to win either.

This strategy was applied in roulette tables when it first came out until betting limits were in place to make this strategy irrelevant.

thanks for taking the time to explain martingale strategy  . ive seen different threads simillar to martingale but most of them are only asking if its working or not but you , you make an example that shows how martingale is considered to be one of those risky strategy   .  i didnt know this fact before and im blinded by the truth , i thought i can won at all times when i use martingale but eventually i still got a lot of red streaks in which i cannot recover what i loose anymore .

Everyone deserves to try to the Martingale system out at least one time.  People always think they found some magical strategy that will work until they find out differently from testing it.  Eventually they will reach a long losing streak and won't have the funds to keep doubling their bets.

^ Definitely right, you need to have a huge of capital on this strategy and to bet the house edge is that just easy. I dunno why people used this Martingale strategy, they probably think that it will increase their chances of winning but the fact is you need to be a high roller and that is very risky. Nevertheless, I still believed in good luck in gambling and also strategy doesn't work but if you applied techniques probably there is a high chance of winning.