Topic: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? - page 7. (Read 942 times)

Martingale strategy is a part way to lose money in gambling and I am an example of that. I lose in dice playing using martingale strategy in July and I have not recovered from the loses up till now. It is something that doesn’t work and I do depend on my luck since I lost huge in that. No strategy work! Only luck work in gambling.

There is no really strategy that will make you have better chances against the house

If you are trying to make money gambling, you are like paying because you don't understand statistics.

What you can do is to pay to have some fun. You won't make money unless you are very lucky (which is ,win something highly improbable, against the odds). It is possible, but not probable

Even if you have all 21,000,000 million bitcoins in your balance it is mathematically proved that martingale strategy decreases your chance. The more you reduce the initial bet and increase your balance, the more you have to repeat the game to win a certain amount. Your chance of winning one game is increased, but your chance of winning the games for n times decreases.

So long as there is no upper limit on bet size, and you have unlimited balance, then you should eventually win using the martingale method.

However, given that the house edge exists it is like comparing two infinite states, where one infinite is marginally bigger than the other.

Because of this, even with infinite balance and no bet size limit, the house is still more likely to get a lucky run that somehow empties your limitless balance.

Beyond that, most casinos have a max bet size or win amount that will eventually rekt you when using martingale.

Martingale is a high risk level of trying to be profitable. Of course it is gambling and one of the methods. If it doesn't work for one does not mean it doesn't work for another but one thing we know is that it involves high risk and can wipe you off.

I know Martingale strategy has already discussed as it's not something new. I just made a calculation of the chance when you use Martingale strategy and I shared it. I don't think such a calculation has been done before. Also, I didn't say it's profitable. I did the calculations to prove it's not profitable.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/is-the-martingale-working-or-not-2570086
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/does-martingale-really-works-610339
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2995887.40
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.80
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/why-the-martingale-system-sucks-doubling-down-on-losses-5166446
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-many-bitcoins-needed-for-martingale-2098050

All of these threads prove out regarding Martingale.

This topic has been discussed a million times already.

Martingale strategy is too risky to use specially if you bet with higher stakes and it does also depends on your chances whether it is a luck-based game or skill-based game. If you feel you have the luck in a game then use this as your main strategy but i wouldn't recommend it if you have a bad day.

Martingale is a popular method some gamblers use to increase their chance in dice games.
First I describe this method for those that are not familiar with this method.
In this method, players increase the amount of the next bet when they lose. They increase the amount of bet to cover all the previous losses. This increasing continues until they finally win. They believe that it's impossible to loss all the bets and they will finally win a bet.
Here I want to calculate the chance of winning when players use this method.

Let's assume that a player has 1 bitcoin and starts with 1 Satoshi. I guess I have considered the bet increment as small as needed.
I also assume that the bet odd is 2 and win chance is 49%.

So, If I bet to double my bitcoins my chance is 49%.
But I will use Martingale strategy to increase my chance. I bet 1 Satoshi, If I lose I double the amount of the bet. Whenever I win, the amount of my next bet is 1 Satoshi.
The amount of bets are:
1, 2, 4, 8, ...........

My 26th bet will be 33,554,432 Satoshis. If I lose this bet I cannot double my bet. Because I have already lost 67,108,863 Satoshis and my balance is only 32,891,137 Satoshis,
But no problem. I can try my luck 26 times. It's impossible to lose 26 times in a game with 49% chance of win.
The chance of losing 26 times is
[(0.51)^26] = 0.0000000249

So The chance of winning at least one of the 26 bets is
[1-0.0000000249] = 0.9999999751
It's great. It's impossible to lose. I will always win. I will become rich soon.

I will repeat this 100,000,000 times to double my bitcoin. I will have 2 bitcoins soon.

Every time I use this method, my chance is 0.9999999751 and my chance of winning for 100,000,000 times is

[(0.9999999751)^100000000] = 0.0829

Did you see what happened?

Martingale strategy decreases your chance. Avoid it.