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Topic: Dollar slowly collapsing (Read 5251 times)

legendary
Activity: 4438
Merit: 3387
November 21, 2012, 11:52:19 PM
#50
We can't audit the Fed, so we can't prove they are insolvent.  They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.
The FED can never go insolvent because they create the money.

And yes, you're right, nominally, this is true, they can't go "insolvent".  In practice, though, they could print all the money in the world and still be unable to solve debts they must pay, because at some point everyone says "I don't want your monopoly money anymore, fuck you".  Hence, insolvency.

I think this is the scenario you are talking about: inflation finally starts to rise and the Fed needs to act, but it can't reduce the money supply because all the toxic assets that it bought have defaulted, nobody wants treasuries, and raising the reserve ratio will cause widespread bank failures. Hyperinflation follows.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
November 21, 2012, 11:40:07 PM
#49
We can't audit the Fed, so we can't prove they are insolvent.  They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.

The FED can never go insolvent because they create the money.


Just like in the Parker Brothers MONOPOLY game.

And yes, you're right, nominally, this is true, they can't go "insolvent".  In practice, though, they could print all the money in the world and still be unable to solve debts they must pay, because at some point everyone says "I don't want your monopoly money anymore, fuck you".  Hence, insolvency.
legendary
Activity: 1002
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin
October 20, 2012, 11:19:20 PM
#48
My bet : hyper-inflation disguised is occuring scince few year now.. Watch out those who have pilled lots of $ for their retirement !  They may discover that their purchasing power worth not an half they were anticipating.

At the rate currency are printed, specially the reserve one !
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
October 08, 2012, 05:11:18 PM
#47
Nice try.  Now let reality have a chance!
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1001
October 08, 2012, 09:49:09 AM
#46
The Federal Government is overspending by such a wide margin the only solution they have at this point is to devalue the dollar so the cost of borrowing does not collapse the welfare spending mountain.

The problem is so bad with excess federal spending that the only solutions we have at this point would be to cut spending across the board by 50%, raise taxes on every single person by 25%, confiscate wealth from the people in any way possible, or just default on the federal debt.

If we default on the federal debt the main group which will be crushed would be...The Federal Reserve.  The Fed has been putting so much federal debt on to its books that any change in the system at this point would really pound them.  If Ron Paul really wanted to "End the Fed", this would kill two birds with one stone.

1) Allow the Fed to buy U.S. debt back from foreign investors and don't sell any more debt outside the Fed.
2) Announce a new currency which will be backed with a basket of items such as Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Lithium, etc...
3) Give everyone 1 year to exchange the old dollar with the new currency
4)  The Fed would take the loss from the currency devaluation and the federal debt.  This would end the Fed.

5) We start over.

I am not the Federal government.  I am a US Citizen.  As such, I am not responsible for reckless decisions, favoritism, payoffs, and endless wars the government of the country that I choose to inhabit chooses to fund by debt spending.  Therefore, I vote to solve the problem we:

1 - declare 99% of the federal government useless, unconstitutional, and dissolve it
2 - declare all debts incurred by said useless government null and void
3 - pass a law once again allowing anyone to create "money".  the market will quickly determine what is valid and valuable, and what isn't
4 - that will cause the so called federal reserve to quickly go bankrupt and out of business, because no one will want to use so called dollars (federal reserve notes)

That said, 99% of the world's problems are caused by corporations and governments.  Corporations and governments themselves are not mindless entities, they are run by people.  Therefore 99% of the world's problems are caused by people.  Until the mindset of people raises up and gets out of the petty egotistical power hungry greedy godless mentality that most live in, it doesn't matter WHAT economic structure, what government, what laws we have, we'll all end up in the same boat, different name.

M
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
October 08, 2012, 01:55:42 AM
#45
Money has been inflated since the dawn of time, and has been reset countless times by every culture. Every debt based fiat currency is heading the way of Zimbabwe, just at different speeds.

And as a matter of basic economic theory, a banana costing billions in Zimbabwe probably had more to do with the lack of bananas than the printing of more money. Printing money just gave the printers access to goods first.
legendary
Activity: 1002
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin
October 08, 2012, 01:22:33 AM
#44
Or maybe he's trying to soften the deflation.  Nothing kills a consumerist economy like falling prices.

This is only true for dept based currency, as the dollar and all other fiat currencies.  

This only applies to reality...

Not for gold or bitcoin  Wink

+1
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
October 07, 2012, 11:09:43 PM
#43
2) Announce a new currency which will be backed with a basket of items such as Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Lithium, etc...

You do know the entire point of backing a currency is that when currency is transferred from one country to another.. the actual physical good backing it is transferred as well?

That is why a gold backed currency isn't even really possible or feasible for the US anymore. Back in the day the USD was pegged at say $35/oz. So if a company in say China had $3500 of our money, they could directly ask for 100oz of gold. And guess what.. there isn't infinate gold out there, eventually the US would 'run out' of money and our economy would shrink.

Just saying...
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
October 07, 2012, 02:02:49 PM
#42
Why is it when shit hits the fan ppl still race to the dollar?
Because the fiscal disasters in other large economies are even worse.

When the shit hits the fan people race for what they know.  Gold, silver, other precious metals and possibly BTC this time round.  If we are lucky.  Its just a matter of time and how deep the depression will be!!
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 06, 2012, 01:12:24 PM
#41
Quote
We will have falling wages, but purchasing power per dollar will increase.
why would purchasing power per dollar increase due to inflationary policies? Even with real economic growth, purchasing power per dollar falls due to inflation

Because, as I already stated, the deflationary pressures are stronger than the actual effects of the policy due to the fact that the printed money only goes to the financial sector and they are hording it.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 06:59:03 PM
#40
Quote
We will have falling wages, but purchasing power per dollar will increase.
why would purchasing power per dollar increase due to inflationary policies? Even with real economic growth, purchasing power per dollar falls due to inflation
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 06:39:31 PM
#39
Credit money, when paid back, disappears until a bank decides to create a new loan. There is nothing to loan until the bank decides to loan. If banks, as a whole, decide to reduce the amount of credit money in circulation, yes there will be bankruptcies and such, but there should also be deflation and things will eventually work itself out if the central bank does not intervene. Interest has very little to do with the situation. Loaning money into circulation puts money in circulation. It doesn't matter how it got there as long as it's circulating. And interest can go on indefinitely without printing money as long as the employees/shareholders of the bank spend money at some point, but this is true for anyone who comes into possession of money.

There are reserve requirements though, so when the money comes back, it allows them to loan that much more back out.  Before it comes back they can't loan it out if they are already at the limit.  But, a lot of banks are aren't at the limit.  They are just holding large reserves and being ultra conservative... reducing the amount in circulation and steering us toward waves of bankruptcies.  Sure, they can fight the deflation with money printing, but they still haven't solved the problem of getting the money out of the financial sector.  Right now, they are giving wall street exactly the powder they need to hold the dollar hostage.

There will be no glamorous and hollywood-esque "dollar death", but instead a slow decline of standard of living and purchasing power. If the malinvestment policies keep up at their current pace, we may have the first reversal in our otherwise monotonic real wage growth of the last ~70 years.

We will have falling wages, but purchasing power per dollar will increase.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
October 05, 2012, 02:04:13 PM
#38
There will be no glamorous and hollywood-esque "dollar death", but instead a slow decline of standard of living and purchasing power. If the malinvestment policies keep up at their current pace, we may have the first reversal in our otherwise monotonic real wage growth of the last ~70 years.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2012, 01:59:41 PM
#37
Credit money, when paid back, disappears until a bank decides to create a new loan. There is nothing to loan until the bank decides to loan. If banks, as a whole, decide to reduce the amount of credit money in circulation, yes there will be bankruptcies and such, but there should also be deflation and things will eventually work itself out if the central bank does not intervene. Interest has very little to do with the situation. Loaning money into circulation puts money in circulation. It doesn't matter how it got there as long as it's circulating. And interest can go on indefinitely without printing money as long as the employees/shareholders of the bank spend money at some point, but this is true for anyone who comes into possession of money.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 01:27:26 PM
#36
Right, and when they do that, there is not enough money to pay the interest that is due

Again, not strictly true. The same dollar can pay off multiple debts as long as it is spent back into circulation.

But the point I keep repeating is that it's not getting spent back into circulation.  It is only being loaned.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2012, 12:07:37 PM
#35
Right, and when they do that, there is not enough money to pay the interest that is due

Again, not strictly true. The same dollar can pay off multiple debts as long as it is spent back into circulation.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 12:00:40 PM
#34
Quote
Banks hold tight to their money these days.

This is the problem of credit money. Banks have all the power, and they can shrink the effective supply of money very easily.

Right, and when they do that, there is not enough money to pay the interest that is due and we will soon start to have waves of bankruptcies unless some miracle jump starts the economy.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
October 05, 2012, 11:49:21 AM
#33
Except savings and CDs have been neutered to the point that they only way for repaid debt to reenter circulation is for it to be lent out again.

This is not strictly true in any sense. Banks have employees and shareholders that get paid via the interest returns on loans. Although some people believe if all debts were paid there would be no money, this is not true. There are two types of money, base money and credit money. Base money is what the fed "prints" into its computer, credit money is what banks create. Base money can't disappear.

Quote
Unless something changes, you do need more printing to pay down the total debt.

Paying down the (national) debt means private citizens hold more money and less securities. To pay for the securities you need money to start with. You do not need to print more money. The Fed does "print" money to buy securities and holds a significant portion of them, but this is not a necessary thing with a balanced budget.

Quote
Banks hold tight to their money these days.

This is the problem of credit money. Banks have all the power, and they can shrink the effective supply of money very easily.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 05, 2012, 11:30:52 AM
#32
They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.

They also have the US military/policing power backing up their position. You can foist any amount of crappy currency or ideas on anyone if you have a big enough army.

For how long?

Even a nuclear arsenal requires wealth to maintain. A slow slide into bankruptcy can accomplish some of the same results as a sudden military strike. See the former USSR.

But they only went bankrupt because they wasted a decade fighting the mountain people in Afghanistan... oh wait...
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1006
October 05, 2012, 11:15:18 AM
#31
They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.

They also have the US military/policing power backing up their position. You can foist any amount of crappy currency or ideas on anyone if you have a big enough army.

For how long?

Even a nuclear arsenal requires wealth to maintain. A slow slide into bankruptcy can accomplish some of the same results as a sudden military strike. See the former USSR.
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