Topic: Don't Fomo , 3800$ incoming ? (Read 14040 times)

The more and more I read about TAs and chart predictions, the more I am convinced that BTC doesn't work exactly that way...
Market is too small? too immature? market makers are too few and loaded with too much BTC? well, don't know... but the fact is that BTC often does a lot of stuff that nobody can explain...

Nothing TA wise pointed to a movement to the upside, everything was screaming down, and it just did not work this time, it's normal it happens quite often because TA is not a crystal ball.

using the term "panicked"  makes me think that you are not a day trader, which is why you shouldn't be reading any TAs because they will be of no use to you, anybody who knows about TA would have shorted the 5.8k region because the probability of falling from a resistance is more likely than not , but whatever the plan failed  and that happens every day, and we did close above 6k which means that shorting at that point is useless, and entering long position is the proper move.

this is what i mentioned

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Update

i took a loss on my all of last shorts with the an average loss of about -7.4% , but I entered long and i am already at about 6% profit , I did close all my long positions too at current price 6860 , not going to fight the 6800 level , in fact i am thinking of opening a few short position for a possible correction to the lower 6k area or lower.

The key here is not to get married to one side of the trend and admit that you were wrong when  it happens and act based on the current situation in front of you


I am also going to be focusing more on ALTs , when BTC domince gets this high , there are always better chances with ALTs than with BTC

I will of course keep this chart updated

The chances that bitcoins will go down with 50% to $3800 seems very small now, the bitcoin market is much bigger than in 2015, I think bitcoins will go sideways for some times and then try to break bullish, testing $9k or $10k, with one year to next halving we are now in a period where people buy more bitcoins than they want to sell.

I am a bitcoin believer and I have substantial investment in bitcoin till date but I still believe that there will be a very big retrace soon back to $4000 or $4500 possibly, you are right that the market is obviously switching to an uptrend, but presently, the market has been overbought, so there is a possibility for a big retrace before we fully embark on the uptrend that will lead us to the bull run.

So for a long term holder, they should keep continue holding but for short term investment, this is not the right time for them to buy if I may say, so they should be patient. Anyway, I know time will tell and we will know who is good at it.

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming. it can teach you not to go against the market trend when it is obviously in an upward movement just because you saw SMAs looking a certain way because they don't indicate anything specially when all the rest of the signs (the market trend, the sentiment, the volume,...) pointing to a rise instead.

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming.

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions

I know most of you guys hate it when someone points out a bearish set-up , we all want lambos but facts must be stated.


last month i started this topic > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50358025


i mentioned that if we were to close above 20SMA on the weekly, we will head to the 50SMA which was at about 5600$ , that was when btc price was struggling to break 4000$, surprisingly , it did exactly that, despite the low probability.


This suggests that we can very likely continue with the same structure, let's look at the chart. 




looking back at july 2015 , we can see that right after testing the 50SMA we head straight back to the 200SMA , which now sits at around 3600$ , but with a bit of room till the price gets there, it should be at around 3700$-3800$ , also notice that we can have a wick like we did back then, that wick can go to as low as 3300$.


this , plus being at probably the strongest resistance area that we had since day 1 in bitcoin , breaking that from the first trial is not very possible, a good run of correction to the down side is very high likely going to happen.


so don't fomo, don't panic, if the 2015 chart is to repeat itself, in about a month from now, we should mark the our bull-market-starting-point.



*This set up gets invalidated if we close above 6k
*a correction is very likely, but no guarantee we going that low , so buying at possible support areas is the best practice.

This is not a financial advice




let's see what you guys got to say about this, hopping to see some counter-TA and not some crystal ball or my girlfriend thinks so b.s  .

also, moon guys, don't hate , i am trying just trying to warn you about a very possible scenario.


Good luck

Remaining calm and trade base on the analysis you have done is what separates amateur from professionals traders.  I think we have see many analysis like this in the past and many of them did not come to pass and we just need to wait for time to tell.  If you sell because of another person analysis you may blame yourself in future.

You should notice by now that TA doesn’t really work that much in predicting the long term value of Bitcoin, this is exactly the same way someone who I believe could read TA better than me, practically told me that it will be impossible for bitcoin to break the barrier of $6000 without first having a retest of $4800, and advised that I never buy more for now, but to sell while waiting for the retest, look at the value now.

I am glad I dint follow his suggestion and decided to go with mine. We broke the barrier of and I see that this may be how we will continue to increase until probably there will be a FUD news that will pull it backward.

Thought i'd drop and update here:

as you can tell, we did close above the 50SMA on the weekly , however ! ! i am still leaning towards a re-test towards 3.8k to 4.4k or so

This scenario will of course be invalidated if we close above 6k , or 62xx$ on the BLX chart, the big question is , what are the chances of breaking above 6k vs going down?

i would say 30% to break up and moon, 70%  drop . The way i am playing the charts now is simply adding more shorts , not exactly aiming for 3.8k  , my aim is 4.2k-4.4k but that all of that can change depending on how things evolve.

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions tho i don't see that happening, those who are in shorts positions, be prepared for some wicks , stay calm and pay attention to candle closing and not just a wick.

Bear market is over guys , cant you see bitcoin is going up little by little as the day passes. Im pretty sure that bitcoin heading to 10,000$  by july.

Bear market is over guys , cant you see bitcoin is going up little by little as the day passes. Im pretty sure that bitcoin heading to 10,000$  by july.

if we continue with this gradual increase, we will have great chances to end the year with the price of $8000

is Tom Lee trying to appear less in the press to preserve his image?