Don't listen to all the propagandists. Mining is fine. - page 2.

nebiki

sr. member

Activity: 742

Merit: 250

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:58:56 AM

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:54:12 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:51:49 AM

I do not need numbers...people said the exact same thing you are saying now 6mos ago...mining continues to turn a profit currently. My OPINION is that speculators (and myself) have no idea. Proof of this is in the past threads.

It does however make me wonder why you seem so intent on swaying people from mining...I honestly am not trying to get people to do it, I am just pointing out the flaws in most naysayers...always come with a bunch of numbers that do not take into account value increase.

By your logic mining was never profitable...you do know most early adopters were eating their hardware/power cost while everyone was telling them they were stupid and that BTC would never be worth anything...now everyone is saying the only people who can make money are the early adopters...it gets more and more stupid...everyone thinks they can predict the future behavior of a group of humans by using a bunch of hardware/difficulty calculations.

If you are right...great...I still won't care. It won't change my decision...just as I hope others come to their own conclusions.

NEVER risk anything more than you can afford to lose, ever...and everything has levels of risk.

See for me, I am GPU mining with 1 card. You can look up my total net worth by copying my signature link and putting it into block explorer.

I am on these forums to discuss rationally and logically with people about bitcoins. I am not promoting hysteria, but I am also not promoting blind faith. People who say "I don't need numbers" are the ones I really begin to question. "It worked in the past!" These logical fallacies are exactly the wrong way to discuss Bitcoins.

You claim that value increase is being discounted, but I specifically asked you to put forth what value increase is necessary to keep things as profitable as you claim they will be. I see that I cannot engage you in logical discussions, so I will bow out.

Probably a good idea for both of us...I have no numbers (I am speculating...I could be wrong and I still would turn a profit somehow) and I was starting to wonder if I was talking to a machine with an extra goto 10 line in the wrong spot.

i love people who always go all-in with each pair. gotta love them.

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:54:12 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:51:49 AM

I do not need numbers...people said the exact same thing you are saying now 6mos ago...mining continues to turn a profit currently. My OPINION is that speculators (and myself) have no idea. Proof of this is in the past threads.

It does however make me wonder why you seem so intent on swaying people from mining...I honestly am not trying to get people to do it, I am just pointing out the flaws in most naysayers...always come with a bunch of numbers that do not take into account value increase.

By your logic mining was never profitable...you do know most early adopters were eating their hardware/power cost while everyone was telling them they were stupid and that BTC would never be worth anything...now everyone is saying the only people who can make money are the early adopters...it gets more and more stupid...everyone thinks they can predict the future behavior of a group of humans by using a bunch of hardware/difficulty calculations.

If you are right...great...I still won't care. It won't change my decision...just as I hope others come to their own conclusions.

NEVER risk anything more than you can afford to lose, ever...and everything has levels of risk.

See for me, I am GPU mining with 1 card. You can look up my total net worth by copying my signature link and putting it into block explorer.

I am on these forums to discuss rationally and logically with people about bitcoins. I am not promoting hysteria, but I am also not promoting blind faith. People who say "I don't need numbers" are the ones I really begin to question. "It worked in the past!" These logical fallacies are exactly the wrong way to discuss Bitcoins.

You claim that value increase is being discounted, but I specifically asked you to put forth what value increase is necessary to keep things as profitable as you claim they will be. I see that I cannot engage you in logical discussions, so I will bow out.

Probably a good idea for both of us...I have no numbers (I am speculating...I could be wrong and I still would turn a profit somehow) and I was starting to wonder if I was talking to a machine with an extra goto 10 line in the wrong spot.

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:51:49 AM

I do not need numbers...people said the exact same thing you are saying now 6mos ago...mining continues to turn a profit currently. My OPINION is that speculators (and myself) have no idea. Proof of this is in the past threads.

It does however make me wonder why you seem so intent on swaying people from mining...I honestly am not trying to get people to do it, I am just pointing out the flaws in most naysayers...always come with a bunch of numbers that do not take into account value increase.

By your logic mining was never profitable...you do know most early adopters were eating their hardware/power cost while everyone was telling them they were stupid and that BTC would never be worth anything...now everyone is saying the only people who can make money are the early adopters...it gets more and more stupid...everyone thinks they can predict the future behavior of a group of humans by using a bunch of hardware/difficulty calculations.

If you are right...great...I still won't care. It won't change my decision...just as I hope others come to their own conclusions.

NEVER risk anything more than you can afford to lose, ever...and everything has levels of risk.

See for me, I am GPU mining with 1 card. You can look up my total net worth by copying my signature link and putting it into block explorer.

I am on these forums to discuss rationally and logically with people about bitcoins. I am not promoting hysteria, but I am also not promoting blind faith. People who say "I don't need numbers" are the ones I really begin to question. "It worked in the past!" These logical fallacies are exactly the wrong way to discuss Bitcoins.

You claim that value increase is being discounted, but I specifically asked you to put forth what value increase is necessary to keep things as profitable as you claim they will be. I see that I cannot engage you in logical discussions, so I will bow out.

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:44:20 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:41:04 AM

Cool...but how is this new?

I am asking for you to toss out some numbers to back up your claims : )

You can't just say 'I am right' nor 'Others were wrong in the past, therefore I am right'.

What would Bitcoins need to be worth, given a 7,000,000 + difficulty, to be profitable?

I do not need numbers...people said the exact same thing you are saying now 6mos ago...mining continues to turn a profit currently. My OPINION is that speculators (and myself) have no idea. Proof of this is in the past threads.

It does however make me wonder why you seem so intent on swaying people from mining...I honestly am not trying to get people to do it, I am just pointing out the flaws in most naysayers...always come with a bunch of numbers that do not take into account value increase.

By your logic mining was never profitable...you do know most early adopters were eating their hardware/power cost while everyone was telling them they were stupid and that BTC would never be worth anything...now everyone is saying the only people who can make money are the early adopters...it gets more and more stupid...everyone thinks they can predict the future behavior of a group of humans by using a bunch of hardware/difficulty calculations.

If you are right...great...I still won't care. It won't change my decision...just as I hope others come to their own conclusions.

NEVER risk anything more than you can afford to lose, ever...and everything has levels of risk.

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:41:04 AM

Cool...but how is this new?

I am asking for you to toss out some numbers to back up your claims : )

You can't just say 'I am right' nor 'Others were wrong in the past, therefore I am right'.

What would Bitcoins need to be worth, given a 7,000,000 + difficulty, to be profitable?

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:39:22 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:31:51 AM

Not talking about the difficulty increase...they all said mining would stop being profitable by X date...they so far have been wrong...it might be less profitable but still making money.

So, without new hardware hitting the market, and given 6 30-50% difficulty increases from now to mid-late August, you say it will still be profitable to make bitcoins.

That would require the price of bitcoins to match the difficulty rate, right?

So far that isn't exactly happening, since price depends on demand, not difficulty.

Cool...but how is this new?

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:31:51 AM

Not talking about the difficulty increase...they all said mining would stop being profitable by X date...they so far have been wrong...it might be less profitable but still making money.

So, without new hardware hitting the market, and given 6 30-50% difficulty increases from now to mid-late August, you say it will still be profitable to make bitcoins.

That would require the price of bitcoins to match the difficulty rate, right?

So far that isn't exactly happening, since price depends on demand, not difficulty.

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:25:13 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:13:24 AM

Again...most speculator who have stated the exact same thing in the past ended up being wrong. Always factoring in difficulty increase but always assuming a stagnant or declining value. Really though nobody knows what will happen.

Can you show me where they were wrong? The increases in difficulty are shown here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

6/26 40%
6/15 54%
6/6 30%
5/26 78%
5/18 55%
5/9 43%

I mean really. The last month has been huge, and you can see that only 2x on that chart has it been negative, and a few negatives are more than cancelled out by 300% and 78% increases, lmao.

Not talking about the difficulty increase...they all said mining would stop being profitable by X date...they so far have been wrong...it might be less profitable but still making money.

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:13:24 AM

Again...most speculator who have stated the exact same thing in the past ended up being wrong. Always factoring in difficulty increase but always assuming a stagnant or declining value. Really though nobody knows what will happen.

Can you show me where they were wrong? The increases in difficulty are shown here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

6/26 40%
6/15 54%
6/6 30%
5/26 78%
5/18 55%
5/9 43%

I mean really. The last month has been huge, and you can see that only 2x on that chart has it been negative, and a few negatives are more than cancelled out by 300% and 78% increases, lmao.

Grouver (BtcBalance)

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Can the difficulty decrease?
If the hardware cannot keep up and there are less blocks created then what was it 7 blocks an hour?
Then the difficulty just decreases to X amount so it still maintains the 7 blocks an hour.

Just wondering...

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:10:38 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:07:50 AM

There may be nothing as fast as the 6990 but you can certainly get rigs with a much better cost/mh/s.

My point is only that with continually increasing difficulty, the BTC/day drops dramatically in a very short time.

If you spend $800 on a rig instead of $1000, sure you get a better rate. But you're still only getting 0.1 BTC/day with your $800 or $1000 rig in mid August. Is that 0.1 BTC/day going to pay itself off? Not at $17/BTC.

Again...most speculator who have stated the exact same thing in the past ended up being wrong. Always factoring in difficulty increase but always assuming a stagnant or declining value. Really though nobody knows what will happen.

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:07:50 AM

There may be nothing as fast as the 6990 but you can certainly get rigs with a much better cost/mh/s.

My point is only that with continually increasing difficulty, the BTC/day drops dramatically in a very short time.

If you spend $800 on a rig instead of $1000, sure you get a better rate. But you're still only getting 0.1 BTC/day with your $800 or $1000 rig in mid August. Is that 0.1 BTC/day going to pay itself off? Not at $17/BTC.

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 19, 2011, 11:05:49 AM

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:02:05 AM

I don't know if you realize this but people have been stating the exact same thing as you for over 6mos yet people have still managed to pay off their rigs...you can probably make more money buying stock in an electronics manufacturer as opposed to selling their item but it doesn't mean either way is better...they both have their pluses and minuses...just like mining/investing.

I would have made more investing for sure...doesn't mean mining was stupid...just different methods/risk/end goal.

I would really like to see the price of BTC continue to rise, like it has in the past 6 mo. If it does, that will help the current adopters to pay off their rigs.

Really though, we seem to be running into a GPU limit. 1.0 Ghash (3 cards) puts out 1.0 BTC/day. In the next difficulty that rig only puts out .6 BTC/day. Then, 10 days later, will put out .4 BTC/day. The amount of media attention and network growth is impressive. The hardware is not keeping up. By mid August we're going to have hit a wall in terms of producing BTC simply based on ever-increasing difficulty, and nothing being faster than the 6990.

There may be nothing as fast as the 6990 but you can certainly get rigs with a much better cost/mh/s.

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 11:02:05 AM

I don't know if you realize this but people have been stating the exact same thing as you for over 6mos yet people have still managed to pay off their rigs...you can probably make more money buying stock in an electronics manufacturer as opposed to selling their item but it doesn't mean either way is better...they both have their pluses and minuses...just like mining/investing.

I would have made more investing for sure...doesn't mean mining was stupid...just different methods/risk/end goal.

I would really like to see the price of BTC continue to rise, like it has in the past 6 mo. If it does, that will help the current adopters to pay off their rigs.

Really though, we seem to be running into a GPU limit. 1.0 Ghash (3 cards) puts out 1.0 BTC/day. In the next difficulty that rig only puts out .6 BTC/day. Then, 10 days later, will put out .4 BTC/day. The amount of media attention and network growth is impressive. The hardware is not keeping up. By mid August we're going to have hit a wall in terms of producing BTC simply based on ever-increasing difficulty, and nothing being faster than the 6990.

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: Elokane on June 19, 2011, 10:56:18 AM

By the time these magical ASICs are designed, produced and put in use GPU mining will mostly be inefficient anyway unless the price per BTC increases by A LOT. It takes time to produce such a chip.
Buying equipment for mining NOW would be STUPID. It'd be safer, as an investment, to just buy some bitcoins on the market. However, if you're a miner and have some bitcoins, it would be prudent to urge more people to mine and acquire bitcoins for the sake of increasing the size of our economy despite the impact on your mining profitability in bitcoins.

I don't know if you realize this but people have been stating the exact same thing as you for over 6mos yet people have still managed to pay off their rigs...you can probably make more money buying stock in an electronics manufacturer as opposed to selling their item but it doesn't mean either way is better...they both have their pluses and minuses...just like mining/investing.

I would have made more investing for sure...doesn't mean mining was stupid...just different methods/risk/end goal.

Elokane

hero member

Activity: 817

Merit: 1000

Truth is a consensus among neurons www.synereo.com

By the time these magical ASICs are designed, produced and put in use GPU mining will mostly be inefficient anyway unless the price per BTC increases by A LOT. It takes time to produce such a chip.
Buying equipment for mining NOW would be STUPID. It'd be safer, as an investment, to just buy some bitcoins on the market. However, if you're a miner and have some bitcoins, it would be prudent to urge more people to mine and acquire bitcoins for the sake of increasing the size of our economy despite the impact on your mining profitability in bitcoins.

Hook^

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Quote from: nebiki on June 19, 2011, 09:52:31 AM

Quote

Looks like Delphi!

how could you tell? Cheesy

no, it's the only thing i've learned in school. never felt the need to switch to something cooler.

Delphi is my fave. I have V10 now. Unfortunately our company switched to C# two years ago. Although C# is actually a more powerful language, its syntax isn't as nice as Delphi.

Hook^

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Quote from: fcmatt on June 19, 2011, 02:26:39 AM

Quote from: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:56:59 AM

Quote from: rograz on June 19, 2011, 12:38:31 AM

Quote from: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:58:26 PM

That is because everyone knows that ASICs are the inevitable end game. Whoever has those wins.

Even a ASICs design will have a hard time vs a few million gamers worldwide who consider their graphics cards free and GPU shrinks that happen every 18-24 months on average. Any ASIC design brought out today will have to compete with the radeon 7xxx series and not current hardware.

The problem is that an ASIC can be custom designed to go orders of magnitude faster than a GPU for a specific task. As just a very rough estimate, one SHA256 engine with bitcoin hash difficulty detection would take something like 1 million transistors. The latest ASIC technology allows 2 billion transistors. So that would allow 2,000 of these engines per chip. If you layed them out by hand, you could probably get them up to 4 GHz. Assuming one hash per clock, this ends up being 8 TH/S per chip. In other words, this one chip could outperform the entire current BitCoin network. And once the multi-million up front tooling costs are covered, you can make each chip for $50 each. So for another $10,000 you could make a system with 200 chips that would be able to dominate the entire network at 200 times its current capacity. It would pay for itself in about 20 days, because you would get every bitcoin made in that period.

If the exchange rates hold, you could multiply your earnings and buy thousands more chips for a low incremental cost to maintain your dominance. I don't see how GPUs could begin to compete with this.

it all sounds so good except that one or a group of people have to come up with millions of dollars to do this. And i have a feeling
2 million is just enough to go bankrupt trying without producing a single thing.

sure.. if you get lucky and manage to rope in a few experts in the area you have a greater chance of success.. and if they donate their
time for basically a shot at making bitcoins... and if several stars align just so... maybe someone will make a package that can do this.

i am not an expert in the field. i am known to be wrong and probably am. this is just a gut feeling that if people guess that it will take
1 million dollars to do the job.. i normally multiply that in my head by a factor of 5 to really make it happen.

edited to add:

10:31 TD so it's $1000 per gigahash?
10:32 ArtForz well, if support components, PCBs, cases, ... grow on trees, yes

----

but he wins on the power side of things for sure.

According to rumors I have seen around the forums in the last few weeks, there is a group called LargeCoin that has managed to secure a couple of mil and the ASIC engineers to do just that. If I were one of the original bitcoiners that just made 5 million in the last week, this project is exactly what I would be doing with half of the proceeds.

ArtForz used structured ASICs which are just one step above FPGAs. They won't have nearly the performance of a full custom ASIC.

nebiki

sr. member

Activity: 742

Merit: 250

Quote

Looks like Delphi!

how could you tell? Cheesy

no, it's the only thing i've learned in school. never felt the need to switch to something cooler.

Hook^

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Quote from: nebiki on June 19, 2011, 09:22:02 AM

i thought it would be fun to write a calculator for this. i know people have been trying to do it with excel spreadsheets, but honestly they suck and usually don't work with openoffice.

here's my calculator's result for mining in germany and within the US. it's funny. this example shows buying a 6950 at 200€
.

[edit] "in the minus" sounds very german. oh dear. i hate myself. and changed the picture. because 200 eur is not 200 usd.

Looks like Delphi!

Topic: Don't listen to all the propagandists. Mining is fine. - page 2. (Read 10321 times)