It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.
I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.
A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:
2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD
If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.
If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.
Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.
Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.
Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
I don't think the 2013 spring peak-to-trough number is correct. Specifically, it looks like you're using $40 as the post-$266 low, but IIRC, it never broke below $50.00.
