I direct myself to the OP:
Now, first of all, hands off the ignore button. I consider the 'Oh-I-disagree-with-you-IGNORE' reflex as a kind of mediocre self defence mechanism, which does not really contribute in getting a decent view on any given situation. Fact of the matter is: this topic breathes panic. It is another one of those topics that, seemingly desperately, tries to keep as many people in the sinking ship as possible. What we do know pretty much for certain is this:
- 'Adoption' as it is used as an argument here, each and every time, is extremely overrated. I still see no one using Bitcoin, nor did I ever hear someone else talk about using it to buy things. Also, why should merchants all over the world start using something this volatile?
- The press revolving around Bitcoin is close to 90% 'negative press'.
- The 'weak hands', or in each case the average Joe that got fucked during the latest bubble, is leaving 'the game'. Without the average Joe, market manipulation will be a lot harder as there is less to gain.
- The Bitcoin price has been steadily dropping for months already and for now there is absolutely no end in sight. Bitcoin just is overvalued, whatever some of the more prominent members on these boards are saying. The ones that are talking their order book that is.
- Most importantly: historical data does not, in any way, guarantee that Bitcoin will recover. There are multiple second generation Cryptocoins out there already and it has always been argued that Bitcoin might have simply been a first step. Bitcoin might very well be destroyed in the next few months/years.
- As long as the price keeps dropping, miners will get more and more uncomfortable which will probably affect the price drop.
1. Bitcoin cap is measured in billions. For you seeing it used everywhere the cap should reach trillions. So far, the adoption is a niche one. You can argue that if even one on 100 or 1000 is using it, you should still know somebody who uses it to buy something. Well, probably you do know them, they just keep quiet about it, because the "something" is drugs or gambling or pron.
2. Bad news just sell better. When everything's fine in my city/country, the press ignoring them. They appear in news only when something bad happens.
3. When price will come back, the Joe will come back as well. So far very tiny sliver of Joes been in bitcoin.
4. Bounce of 275 with good volume is a sign.
5. Altcoins exist for a while. No bitcoin-killer so far. IMO an altcoin can replace bitcoin only if all states will agree to ban bitcoin. Then some more stelthy altcoin, like Monero or something will take it's place.
