Topic: Dow Jones Price Drop & The Corona Virus? - page 4. (Read 765 times)

And suddenly it makes some other assets go higher, like bitcoin for instance.
It grew out of some strange twisted logic which I barely can understand.
But it surely does something with short players inflating the market at the moment.

Corona virus which started in China had greatly affected their own economy and since this virus has already threathend worldwide, then it's very possible that those affected countries will also be facing an economic crash. Corona virus may not affect the crypto market indirectly but those people who suffer from corona virus may greatly affect the whole market.

I do not see any other options for the development of the situation except for a full-scale fall in the markets and stock exchanges, in particular in China.
If I’m not mistaken, on Monday, during the opening of exchanges, China will throw a large amount of money into stock exchanges to compensate for the situation related to Black Monday.

I think that the stock market will pull a cryptocurrency market.

Haha.. Wow.. Could you elaborate on the "pull a cryptocurrency market"?

I would like to have the same confidence as you, but the number of cases every day only increases, the vaccine will be ready, at least in a few months, if they do not miss the stage of clinical trials, and you are talking about month.

I think this outbreak will have a pretty serious impact on global markets.

first, a deadly virus that spreads in various countries will make its citizens die, then economic assets there (countries affected by the virus) will be in vain. meaning many assets but no users. maybe that's what causes the economy to weaken. and if it continues and there is no prevention and treatment, then the victims will continue to grow and the economy will weaken even more.

Now by all means im not complaining but has anyone seen how high the Dow Jones has gone up while Donald Trump has been in office?

This stupid virus could be the real reason of 2020 recession

First of all corona virus isn't deadly itself. It's similar to pneumonia and it can cause complications to people that already have some serious health conditions that might result with death  But the percentage of people who are affected and die is relatively small.
Such virus threaths, if they last a long time can cause problem also with world economies but currently I don't think that is the case and especialy it doesn't affect cryptocurrencies.

The short answer is "We don't really know yet."

The slightly longer answer is a bit more complicated. We have few data at the moment, and the situation is changing rapidly.

The R₀ value is essentially how many secondary cases you would expect to be created by each infected person. The most recent data I've seen puts this at 4.08. So each person is expected to infect 4 other people. This is high. Seasonal flu has an R₀ value around 1.3, and flu pandemics have an R₀ value around 1.5-2. SARS had a similar value, of between 3 and 5, but as the graphic shared by MinerHQ above shows, despite similar R₀ values, 2019-nCoV is spreading exponentially faster.

Mortality rate is currently estimated at between 2 and 6%. Again, this number is constantly subject to change as the situation develops. For comparison, SARS had a death rate of 10%, but seasonal flu has a rate of <0.01%, and H1N1 or other more serious flu strains are around 0.02%.

So we have a virus with the potential to spread rapidly and the potential to cause between 1 in 20 and 1 in 50 to die from it (based on current data). We also know this virus can spread from person to person. The first confirmed cases in Germany was transmitted from someone who has a "brief and nonspecific" illness. We also know that you can be infected and infect others while being completely asymptomatic.

Quarantines on Wuhan will achieve very little at this point, as local epidemics of the disease have already been established in multiple Chinese cities, including some major transport hubs such as Beijing. These local epidemics are likely lagging 2 weeks behind that of Wuhan, and similarly, spread from there to other major cities around the world a further 2 weeks behind that. Around 5 million people left Wuhan prior the quarantine going to effect, due to Chinese New Year celebrations. China has something like 4 times as many air passengers today as it did during the 2003 SARS outbreak. It is likely there are thousands more cases currently undetected, and it is likely many more countries have cases than we currently know about. All in all, this certainly has the potential to become a global pandemic, which is why it has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, the United States, and a number of other countries.

Current data suggest that it is a fairly stable virus, meaning it doesn't mutate a lot. This is a good thing for two reasons. Firstly, it's less likely to mutate in to something even more lethal or contagious, and second, it makes it easier for researchers to develop a vaccine. Vaccine development is already underway, but it's going to be months before it is ready for phase 1 trials, and up to a year before ready for general use. There are some reports starting to emerge that various antiviral drugs already on the market may be effective, but these reports are very early and currently of low quality. The global response to this has been a lot faster than previous potential pandemics though, in terms of genome sequencing, quarantining individuals, public health measures, and so forth. It's simply too early to tell which was this is going to go.

For anyone who wants to keep up to date, there's a great visualization tool here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. The WHO Situation Reports are also a good resource: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports.

Now, in terms of how this affects to Dow Jones. Airlines are suspending all flights to China, which is a huge portion of their revenue. China is the second largest oil market in the world. So much manufacturing takes place in China. We've seen shares of related companies - Delta, United, Chevron, Exxon, Apple - all take a big hit. Chinese markets are still closed from their New Year celebrations, and won't open again til Monday. I'd expect another dip then. But damn it Jim, I'm a doctor, not an economist.

We're having a lot of thoughts whenever there's a quick spread disease like this. I've heard it's a warfare tactic to take down China's economy since they are the main target of the virus. But, the good news[1] is that there are news lately that says there's already a treatment for those who are affected.

[1] China shows footage of 20 happy coronavirus patients celebrating after recovering in epicentre Wuhan - amid claims that Beijing could be covering up the real death toll
Source: dailymail.co.uk

If a virus spreads in the form of an epidemic then of course it would effect on economy. Because it's also responsible for a government to prevent & cure such as deadly virus. You can see on China, almost countries preventing their citizens to visit China due to Corona virus. So you can realize now how China economy has been affected. If that virus spread more countries then it might affect on global economy as well.

It isn't enough to be called "deadly" tbh. It's just that it's in the realm of the "unknown" and as such, feared. A lot of misinformation was being disseminated regarding the Corona Virus, some being one, the Virus would most likely affect only those of the elderly or the young and those with weak immunities. Most of the deaths of the Corona Virus in Wuhan were actually the elderly, so most shouldn't become paranoid too much. Two, Face masks are nice and all, but what's more important is the hygiene and immunity of the body, which is a level higher than that of using face masks.

I found some articles that said some have been healed from the virus, but I'm not particularly sure of the validity yet so put that on hold, but really, I want to know if someone has the answer. All the authorities are saying is about the death toll, making the panic spread more widely.

IF, and only IF a vaccine for the virus wasn't made, then maybe it could affect the economy. Tbh, right now, China with a large number of people leaving the country seems to have been already affected with regards to their economy.

but I think the potential fall in cryptocurrency prices when there are many viruses that spread this could collapse because I am sure they will try to save their assets and make withdrawals to the local currency to secure its assets and to be on guard, so the possibility of falling prices will still be still happens even though there will be halving bitcoin.

The market was looking for any bad news to drop.  The market cant go up forever, there needs to be drops to keep it healthy.  This would be a much needed bear to normalize and reach a new bottom resistence.  Will see over the next couple of months if it plays out like this for awhile

Well that's truly amazing and thank you for the lab insight on another virus, none the less there has been countless stories of Ebola in Africa and it hasn't seen this type of coverage correlating with the Dow Jones price. Maybe location is a key factor in all of this? And am I reading this right a 500+ Point drop today?

I'm a registered Microbiologist myself, and I'm personally handling the tests on the quarantined patients who are suspected to have the 2019 nCoV-ARD in a hospital in the Metros. The symptoms are basically just like your regular flu, though the R0 value (contagious value) is quite high and exceeded that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV (R0 > 2.5). Anyway, just like any other coronavirus known to Man currently, proper sterilization of equipment and tools, plus regular handwashing and water intake can help fight against the virus.

Currently, a vaccine is being created in Australia after they have successfully recreated said virus within their laboratory (kudos to them), and it's only a matter of time before the epidemic is isolated and contained. To my surprise, the Dow Jones is affected quite roughly, and this might be related to the said outbreak since no one wants to deal with China right now. Not even their exports are being accepted anywhere. Then again, things are subsiding and we're off to introducing a cure to those affected by the flu.

This drop in the indices wouldn't last long. People are scared because most are misinformed, so the normal reaction would be hysteria, panic and carelessness.

Few days ago I was also scared of the virus when number of holders doubled every 2nd day. Now things are calming down. Number of holders doubles every 3rd day. Chinese are perfect organisers. And I speculate the doubling period will keep prolonging until will stop and halvings will start.



Also Chinese tourist will not go out of China. Chinese tourists are huge chunk of worlds tourism.

A lot of these threads are popping up basically about the same thing.  The price drop in markets is due to the fear mongering by the media.  A year from now peoe will barely remember what the big deal was about coronavirus like every other "epidemic".  Look at it as an opportunity to buy.  But as for the stock market I think it is overbought to begin with so this might be a start of a downtrend just coincidentally lined up with this coronavirus outbreak

All that stuff is pretty serious, more serious than regular flu, but modern science is pretty good at dealing with it, we now understand how to slow down the spread of viruses, we can develop vaccines, we can cure sick patients. It's very unlikely that we'll have something on a scale of the Spanish flu or the Black Death ever again.

As for its relation to Dow Jones, it doesn't look like something out of ordinary, I checked the 1yr chart, and this recent drop looks just like the previous corrections, which is totally normal during a bull market.