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Topic: ◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units) - page 4. (Read 60350 times)

hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Pretty insane Dota 2 DreamLeague finals, had VirtusPro ML @2.7, and they took took first 2 maps, and had a strong advantage in the map 3, it looked like an easy 3-0.

The live odds of them winning a series at that point would be probably 1.005 or something like that. It would be very annoying to lose that, given how sharp the bet was.

hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Lost NiP vs VP, VP played unexpectedly well and just stomped NiP. Was entertaining to watch NiP getting outplayed that hard, even though i lost the bet.

Meanwhile, a lot more progleague lines appeared, with a ton of value. Some of the lines look so incredibly juicy that i suspect they could be a result of bookie's mistake.

Have 8 starcraft bets pending at the moment.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Starcraft 2 - SK Telecom Proleague odds released, and 2 out of 4 matches contain quite a bit of value.

Have bets pending on upcoming Vp-NiP and Secret-EG dota matches, on both ML and spreads.

hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Its more sad that some people have nothing else to do other than post in threads that they dont even read or follow. Reported to the mod for obvious spam/bait.

you seem quite angry.

XD Lol indeed
full member
Activity: 288
Merit: 113
Web dev for hire
Its more sad that some people have nothing else to do other than post in threads that they dont even read or follow. Reported to the mod for obvious spam/bait.

you seem quite angry.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Its more sad that some people have nothing else to do other than post in threads that they dont even read or follow. Reported to the mod for obvious spam/bait.
full member
Activity: 288
Merit: 113
Web dev for hire
i am also sad because of the lack of even a single profit.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
what a horrible day.....not a single profit at all.

I get that you are just trying to get your post count up, but you should at least try to make it look legit.

Posting a complete absurd sentences will give it away.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
what a horrible day.....not a single profit at all.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Decent day today, lost 0,3 units on NiP vs Navi but won CDEC +1,5 @1.7, CDEC ML @2.9, LGD -1,5 @1.4 (1,5 units bet).

Total gain of ~2 units

Proleague week 6 lines should be up soon, looking forward to it.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
This week turned out to be pretty bad (unless something happens today/tomorrow), with a loss of 3.5 units. The week before was awesome though, with a gain of 8.5 units.

Very interesting Sc2 results today with Rain suddenly being godlike once again, and Curious playing super solid and owning Rogue 3-0. So far the whole round of 8 of GSL was pure underdog's winning, with the exception of sOs.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Pretty crazy that Rain 3-1'd Maru. Wish i would fire on Rain, since it was my first though when i saw the odds.

My concerns about Maru's wrist were kind of true, he looks more and more uncomfortable playing.

Yesterday's dota matches were a joke, i am glad i stayed away from firing on C9 and Vega's spreads. I had a suspicion the games would be retarded thanks to Ddos/standins and they sure were.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Almost nothing to bet on today when it comes to Dota.

The only one line that i would generally like is too dangerous to jump on today, because of the standin & ddos factor.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Easy wins today on LGD -1,5 (1.9) and ScaryFaceZZZ +1,5 (1.9) to cover Parting's disasterious performance.

Probably the best line-shopping i've done in a while. The steam that came on both lines was pretty insane, the window for profits closed super fast.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Loss of 1.2 units thanks to Parting playing worst series of his life. This was just disgusting display for the round of 8 of GSL.

He should've 3-0 or 3-1 Byul given his skill advantage that he managed to display @map 4 and 5 even while being on tilt.

Guess he is joining herO in the protoss slump lol.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Managed to steal an awesome line that is gone now.

How good these odds? The ScaryfaceZZZ ML are availible at 2.1 now, and this is +1,5 spread for 1.84.

http://i.gyazo.com/7bb1cac3e32b59974494730ceb4e3f2b.png
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Had 0.6 units on Leenock @2.72 for +1 unit profit. Got lucky to catch such good odds, the steam that came on Leenock later brought the odds to 2.3 or so.

Really annoyed at the absence of the dota 2 lines by the way, its extremely rare to see so few tournaments/qualifiers running.

Mind if I ask in this example you posted above, do you size your bets to get 1 unit profit when the odds are considerably higher than 2 and why not just bet a whole unit? Is the probability to win less than 50% more like 30%? I am always fascinated by the bet sizes of other punters and try to size mines better for risk/profit thanks.

Just read about kelly criterion if you are curious about the optimal bet sizing. I hate to redirect people to google most of time, but in this case, it would be waste of time for me to explain it.

If you dont want to read the wiki article, you can find the short version here :

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1036
Had 0.6 units on Leenock @2.72 for +1 unit profit. Got lucky to catch such good odds, the steam that came on Leenock later brought the odds to 2.3 or so.

Really annoyed at the absence of the dota 2 lines by the way, its extremely rare to see so few tournaments/qualifiers running.

Mind if I ask in this example you posted above, do you size your bets to get 1 unit profit when the odds are considerably higher than 2 and why not just bet a whole unit? Is the probability to win less than 50% more like 30%? I am always fascinated by the bet sizes of other punters and try to size mines better for risk/profit thanks.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Had 0.6 units on Leenock @2.72 for +1 unit profit. Got lucky to catch such good odds, the steam that came on Leenock later brought the odds to 2.3 or so.

Really annoyed at the absence of the dota 2 lines by the way, its extremely rare to see so few tournaments/qualifiers running.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Starting today i will manage all my active/past picks @google doc's spreadsheet.

Active subs will obviously have a reading access to it, to check all my current picks/parlays, as well as the results of the week/month with graphs and all that jazz.



Will probably be realising the results-only version of it every week or so to the public.
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