Nothing really to add, very good value spot.
Topic: ◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units) - page 8. (Read 60413 times)
Free pick :
Nothing really to add, very good value spot.
Nothing really to add, very good value spot.
10-0 for today's bets. Won Flash>Dream (took Flash close to even money) and herO>Patience in Parlays
and went 4-0(8-0 actually, if you count map1 and spread bets) in Dota MarsTV, Chiniese teams performed as they should today without any throws.
Not much bets left, except EG -1,5 vs Rave, which is pretty close to a free money @-220
and went 4-0(8-0 actually, if you count map1 and spread bets) in Dota MarsTV, Chiniese teams performed as they should today without any throws.
Not much bets left, except EG -1,5 vs Rave, which is pretty close to a free money @-220
Today's lines are all pretty low on value which doesnt happen too often.
Small win today @Sc2 - Lost Hyun vs Dream ML but won Classic v Soulkey. Coud've taken Hyun +1,5 for a safer play but ML odds were just too good after the small steam on Dream.
The bet on Classic was bigger therefore it resulted in a small profit for a day. He did 4-0 his group and played very well overall.
Ro8 of the StarLeague looks extremely tough and apart overall it looks like the toughest tournament of the year despite Parting not being in the playoffs.
Small win today @Sc2 - Lost Hyun vs Dream ML but won Classic v Soulkey. Coud've taken Hyun +1,5 for a safer play but ML odds were just too good after the small steam on Dream.
The bet on Classic was bigger therefore it resulted in a small profit for a day. He did 4-0 his group and played very well overall.
Ro8 of the StarLeague looks extremely tough and apart overall it looks like the toughest tournament of the year despite Parting not being in the playoffs.
Free pick of the day is C9 over EG at Dota 2 Summit
Pretty tough one to call. On paper - EG is the better team here, but they've been under the radar for a decent amount of time, not participating in any tournaments. They also have a strong tendancy to underperform at the first day of LANS.
C9 beeing showing a very good form, despite somewhat choking against IG at Starladder - they were in a position to take it 2:0. They should be more comfortable with current patch and meta in general.
Overall, a lot of imperfect information when it comes to this match, but when you weight all the probabilities and stats - the sharp play is to take C9 @even money.
Pretty tough one to call. On paper - EG is the better team here, but they've been under the radar for a decent amount of time, not participating in any tournaments. They also have a strong tendancy to underperform at the first day of LANS.
C9 beeing showing a very good form, despite somewhat choking against IG at Starladder - they were in a position to take it 2:0. They should be more comfortable with current patch and meta in general.
Overall, a lot of imperfect information when it comes to this match, but when you weight all the probabilities and stats - the sharp play is to take C9 @even money.
Well that was pleasantly surprising how C9 2-0'd EG without much effort at all
Free pick of the day is C9 over EG at Dota 2 Summit
Pretty tough one to call. On paper - EG is the better team here, but they've been under the radar for a decent amount of time, not participating in any tournaments. They also have a strong tendancy to underperform at the first day of LANS.
C9 beeing showing a very good form, despite somewhat choking against IG at Starladder - they were in a position to take it 2:0. They should be more comfortable with current patch and meta in general.
Overall, a lot of imperfect information when it comes to this match, but when you weight all the probabilities and stats - the sharp play is to take C9 @even money.
Pretty tough one to call. On paper - EG is the better team here, but they've been under the radar for a decent amount of time, not participating in any tournaments. They also have a strong tendancy to underperform at the first day of LANS.
C9 beeing showing a very good form, despite somewhat choking against IG at Starladder - they were in a position to take it 2:0. They should be more comfortable with current patch and meta in general.
Overall, a lot of imperfect information when it comes to this match, but when you weight all the probabilities and stats - the sharp play is to take C9 @even money.
Pretty easy 3-0 day in Sc2, but not much value.
won :
Cjhero > Bravo @1.4 (straightforward value, managed to grab the opening odds, closed @1.25'ish)
Yonghwa > Sorry @2.2 (best bet of the day)
Dark > Losira @1.6
Innovation losing to hero ruined some of the small parlays, but the result was not that surprising, given that he is in a slump. I was thinking about going for hero in some of the parlays, but he played so abysmal recently in his PvT that i decided that slumping Innovation would still grab an easy win.
In Dota though, for some unknown reason HGT decided to clown throw 2nd game in a bo2 against DreamGaming, it looked completely retarded, i am not sure what were they thinking with their draft and everything, it looked like they did care at all and wanted to do something else.
Still have a bunch of dota bets pending. Underdog bet of the day is Aspera vs LC +200
won :
Cjhero > Bravo @1.4 (straightforward value, managed to grab the opening odds, closed @1.25'ish)
Yonghwa > Sorry @2.2 (best bet of the day)
Dark > Losira @1.6
Innovation losing to hero ruined some of the small parlays, but the result was not that surprising, given that he is in a slump. I was thinking about going for hero in some of the parlays, but he played so abysmal recently in his PvT that i decided that slumping Innovation would still grab an easy win.
In Dota though, for some unknown reason HGT decided to clown throw 2nd game in a bo2 against DreamGaming, it looked completely retarded, i am not sure what were they thinking with their draft and everything, it looked like they did care at all and wanted to do something else.
Still have a bunch of dota bets pending. Underdog bet of the day is Aspera vs LC +200
Looks like almost every player in Prime (if not all) involved in matchfixing. Which is not too surprising given their results. These matches mean nothing for them, and they are realistic about their chance of making money in the legit way. So when someone approches them and offers a chance to make some side money on the games they "would lose anyway" - its hard to imagine them declining the offer.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
here's where the "dead esport" joke comes in
honestly though, SC2 is getting a real bad rep from all the matchfixing, i dont play it or follow the scene anymore but its a shame to see it fall this low.
Its mostly happening in the Korean ProLeague where teams and not players play each other. Individual leagues are much better structured and players will always risk something (legit money prizes, i mean) if they would decide to match fix.
But there, in a ProLeague, a very common sitution occurs where a team A can not advance to the next stage anymore, but still have to play team B team C and team D. So its not a huge shock that some players who have nothing more to lose would start accepting money offers to throw their meaningless matches.
Prime is the worst team in the Proleague by far and realistically they dont have any future or any chances for their players in the individual leagues. So if anyone would have all the reasons in the world to matchfix, it would be them.
Looks like almost every player in Prime (if not all) involved in matchfixing. Which is not too surprising given their results. These matches mean nothing for them, and they are realistic about their chance of making money in the legit way. So when someone approches them and offers a chance to make some side money on the games they "would lose anyway" - its hard to imagine them declining the offer.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
here's where the "dead esport" joke comes in
honestly though, SC2 is getting a real bad rep from all the matchfixing, i dont play it or follow the scene anymore but its a shame to see it fall this low.
Looks like almost every player in Prime (if not all) involved in matchfixing. Which is not too surprising given their results. These matches mean nothing for them, and they are realistic about their chance of making money in the legit way. So when someone approches them and offers a chance to make some side money on the games they "would lose anyway" - its hard to imagine them declining the offer.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
Its just how the currect sc2 betting is - you not only have to find value, but also need to avoid these situations where its very possible that someone will throw a game.
3-0 Today in the ProLeague picks, plus avoided the very tempting odds on Yoda-Myungsik that was actually most likely fixed. Having a personal banlist of sc2 players who were involved in throwing matches in the past comes in handy these days.
Just to show how important is it to catch the opening odds :
DreamGaming vs DK +0.5 spread in a bo2 opened @2.2 and now sitting @1.39
Sad thing, that most people here wont even understand what i've just said.
DreamGaming vs DK +0.5 spread in a bo2 opened @2.2 and now sitting @1.39
Sad thing, that most people here wont even understand what i've just said.
Easy 3-0 for Gumiho against the matchfixer.
Rest of the matches should be like True > Patience, Parting > Hyun, Gumino and True should be a close one, will just look for value there depending on the odds. And Parting should have no real problems winning in the finals, he will have most troubles against True though.
Rest of the matches should be like True > Patience, Parting > Hyun, Gumino and True should be a close one, will just look for value there depending on the odds. And Parting should have no real problems winning in the finals, he will have most troubles against True though.
Free pick for the Sc2 DreamHack.
Odds dropped quite a lot though, i got the Gumiho pick for 1.542 a couple of hours ago. Together with True for 1.73, who dropped to 1.588 now, becoming a meh/breakeven bet.
Let us know if something is missing from your perspective on Fairlay.
This maybe somewhat silly, but i would like an option to have all btc amounts to be displayed just as Btc, and not as mBtc
Haha - we had this in mind earlier so we build the site with this option in mind. It can be done pretty soon - I will add it to our todo.
Let us know if something is missing from your perspective on Fairlay.
This maybe somewhat silly, but i would like an option to have all btc amounts to be displayed just as Btc, and not as mBtc
We don't offer parlays on Fairlay (because we are not a booki we can't) but we have on average 5 times higher limits compared to nitrogen and most important on the same lines the net winnings on fairlay are about 5% higher because of our better odds.
Let us know if something is missing from your perspective on Fairlay.
Let us know if something is missing from your perspective on Fairlay.
I have my own model and watch most of the games to track the stuff that couldnt be picked up by the pure stats.
Thats actually one of the hardest parts - watching games and trying to get the useful information/edge while staying objective and avoiding labeling the teams or players just based on their recent performance.
I know some successful bettors who dont even watch any games at all (not the e-sport ones though), just because they think the time invested doesnt not worth it in the end.
E-sport is a little bit different though because the game itself evolves and changes due to the metagame shifts or big patches.
Thats actually one of the hardest parts - watching games and trying to get the useful information/edge while staying objective and avoiding labeling the teams or players just based on their recent performance.
I know some successful bettors who dont even watch any games at all (not the e-sport ones though), just because they think the time invested doesnt not worth it in the end.
E-sport is a little bit different though because the game itself evolves and changes due to the metagame shifts or big patches.
If you call this parlay 'smallish' I would be very interested in seeing one of your 'biggish' parlays pretty please 
And congratulations by the way.
And congratulations by the way.I guess biggish would be something like this that i am yet to win : https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3bcf70ab0xRZ1pNV1REWWhCamprdkRrUW9rZz09
Best one i have so far is https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/53015aeSUdBaTJyeWNGUEkwK25ReFh2elM4QT09, even if the amount is not that much higher, the odds are.
Yay mate that one is pretty amazing as well. Do you watch esports a lot every week? Or read up on the team performances before the games?
If you call this parlay 'smallish' I would be very interested in seeing one of your 'biggish' parlays pretty please And congratulations by the way.
And congratulations by the way.I guess biggish would be something like this that i am yet to win : https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3bcf70ab0xRZ1pNV1REWWhCamprdkRrUW9rZz09
Best one i have so far is https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/53015aeSUdBaTJyeWNGUEkwK25ReFh2elM4QT09, even if the amount is not that much higher, the odds are.
If you call this parlay 'smallish' I would be very interested in seeing one of your 'biggish' parlays pretty please And congratulations by the way.
And congratulations by the way. Jump to: