Bigger miners are closer to the ideal (technically speaking, not philosophically) of complete centralisation, so they suffer less from stale blocks (which are a result of decentralisation). For example, "51%" attackers have zero stale block risk.
Luck should be the same long-term still, but it's true that long-term can be very long.
Topic: Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB - page 50. (Read 1061862 times)
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
Maybe yes. Maybe no. Luck is luck.
Generally, though, if you continuously mine, as mentioned previously, your shares rewarded will tend towards 100% and land in the upper 90s% over time. If you get a low shares rewarded over a short period, then quit mining, chances are much smaller of getting a higher shares rewarded percentage.
Well, you keep talking about long term averages. Define long term, please. In finances long term is >1year.
I am telling you that I had one machine working almost constantly for 1 year with 94% average (this machine stopped working just before the recent calamity) and another working with some gaps for >1 year with 91.6% now (and still going down from the same 94% three weeks ago)
So here are my facts. I don't know what is causing a difference between expected 98% and 94% that I see. I would discount 91.6% (from 94) to bad luck in the last 2-3 weeks, but I won't discount 94 vs 98% expected.
What could be a potential cause?
I would like to hear possible explanation re this. Could it be that extended payout times caused it (because of higher probability of hitting an orphan during non-pay period)? Something else?
Hard to say without seeing the actual stats. If you PM me the addresses of the accounts in question I'd gladly look into it.
My guess is that your definition of "almost constantly" isn't as close to constantly as needed and that the gaps in mining coincided with periods of good luck for the pool. In that case, as an example, lets say you're mining away, the pool hits a long block or a few long blocks in a row and you quit mining for a bit or pool hop or whatever causes you not to be mining on Eligius. No biggie. However, then while you're away, after all of your shares are shelved (buried under active miners), the pool hits some quick/lucky blocks. Well, you'd left, so your shelved shares are buried under the people actively mining, and perhaps don't get fully reached, thus throwing your percentage off with a bias towards less shares rewarded. Then you come back and start mining again, you didn't get paid for anything for the lucky rounds that weren't quite lucky enough to pay your shelved shares. So, this biases your shares rewarded percentage to be worse.
Likewise, the opposite can happen during a lucking time artificially showing higher shares rewarded.
Thank you for your kind offer. I will sent the address in PM in a few sec.
Would be very curious of your analysis.
I haven't mined BTC in quite a while, but when I did, it was almost always here, with a failover to eclipse PPS and guild. I rarely failed over. I never actually calculated my percentage/luck, but I did watch my bottom line. Almost without exception, even with a tiny mining rig, my payouts were significantly higher from eligius, even vs the "luckless" PPS system. (5% fee can eat a lot of profits 
)
Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
)Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
this is a bit strange suggestion. You could say that it would be smoother and less "lumpy", but i doubt that you can say that it would be higher in the long run.
re pointing more rigs-it is a catch-22 situation.
It is probably a misstatement of the math, I am just saying that more shovels make a bigger hole. When you have enough hashpower to get a significant portion of the blocks, the end result will be better in the short run. Long term, as I understand it, it should all even out. But long term is an extremely variable term.
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
Maybe yes. Maybe no. Luck is luck.
Generally, though, if you continuously mine, as mentioned previously, your shares rewarded will tend towards 100% and land in the upper 90s% over time. If you get a low shares rewarded over a short period, then quit mining, chances are much smaller of getting a higher shares rewarded percentage.
Well, you keep talking about long term averages. Define long term, please. In finances long term is >1year.
I am telling you that I had one machine working almost constantly for 1 year with 94% average (this machine stopped working just before the recent calamity) and another working with some gaps for >1 year with 91.6% now (and still going down from the same 94% three weeks ago)
So here are my facts. I don't know what is causing a difference between expected 98% and 94% that I see. I would discount 91.6% (from 94) to bad luck in the last 2-3 weeks, but I won't discount 94 vs 98% expected.
What could be a potential cause?
I would like to hear possible explanation re this. Could it be that extended payout times caused it (because of higher probability of hitting an orphan during non-pay period)? Something else?
Hard to say without seeing the actual stats. If you PM me the addresses of the accounts in question I'd gladly look into it.
My guess is that your definition of "almost constantly" isn't as close to constantly as needed and that the gaps in mining coincided with periods of good luck for the pool. In that case, as an example, lets say you're mining away, the pool hits a long block or a few long blocks in a row and you quit mining for a bit or pool hop or whatever causes you not to be mining on Eligius. No biggie. However, then while you're away, after all of your shares are shelved (buried under active miners), the pool hits some quick/lucky blocks. Well, you'd left, so your shelved shares are buried under the people actively mining, and perhaps don't get fully reached, thus throwing your percentage off with a bias towards less shares rewarded. Then you come back and start mining again, you didn't get paid for anything for the lucky rounds that weren't quite lucky enough to pay your shelved shares. So, this biases your shares rewarded percentage to be worse.
Likewise, the opposite can happen during a lucking time artificially showing higher shares rewarded.
Thank you for your kind offer. I will sent the address in PM in a few sec.
Would be very curious of your analysis.
I haven't mined BTC in quite a while, but when I did, it was almost always here, with a failover to eclipse PPS and guild. I rarely failed over. I never actually calculated my percentage/luck, but I did watch my bottom line. Almost without exception, even with a tiny mining rig, my payouts were significantly higher from eligius, even vs the "luckless" PPS system. (5% fee can eat a lot of profits )
Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
)Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
this is a bit strange suggestion. You could say that it would be smoother and less "lumpy", but i doubt that you can say that it would be higher in the long run.
re pointing more rigs-it is a catch-22 situation.
I haven't mined BTC in quite a while, but when I did, it was almost always here, with a failover to eclipse PPS and guild. I rarely failed over. I never actually calculated my percentage/luck, but I did watch my bottom line. Almost without exception, even with a tiny mining rig, my payouts were significantly higher from eligius, even vs the "luckless" PPS system. (5% fee can eat a lot of profits )
Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
)Eligius is a pretty small pool on today's market. I really doubt that there is anything more sinister than that going on. The majority of the hashpower will, on average, have better luck overall simply BECAUSE it's the majority. If y'all want more consistent results on Eligius, talk more miners into pointing their rigs here.
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
Maybe yes. Maybe no. Luck is luck.
Generally, though, if you continuously mine, as mentioned previously, your shares rewarded will tend towards 100% and land in the upper 90s% over time. If you get a low shares rewarded over a short period, then quit mining, chances are much smaller of getting a higher shares rewarded percentage.
Well, you keep talking about long term averages. Define long term, please. In finances long term is >1year.
I am telling you that I had one machine working almost constantly for 1 year with 94% average (this machine stopped working just before the recent calamity) and another working with some gaps for >1 year with 91.6% now (and still going down from the same 94% three weeks ago)
So here are my facts. I don't know what is causing a difference between expected 98% and 94% that I see. I would discount 91.6% (from 94) to bad luck in the last 2-3 weeks, but I won't discount 94 vs 98% expected.
What could be a potential cause?
I would like to hear possible explanation re this. Could it be that extended payout times caused it (because of higher probability of hitting an orphan during non-pay period)? Something else?
Hard to say without seeing the actual stats. If you PM me the addresses of the accounts in question I'd gladly look into it.
My guess is that your definition of "almost constantly" isn't as close to constantly as needed and that the gaps in mining coincided with periods of good luck for the pool. In that case, as an example, lets say you're mining away, the pool hits a long block or a few long blocks in a row and you quit mining for a bit or pool hop or whatever causes you not to be mining on Eligius. No biggie. However, then while you're away, after all of your shares are shelved (buried under active miners), the pool hits some quick/lucky blocks. Well, you'd left, so your shelved shares are buried under the people actively mining, and perhaps don't get fully reached, thus throwing your percentage off with a bias towards less shares rewarded. Then you come back and start mining again, you didn't get paid for anything for the lucky rounds that weren't quite lucky enough to pay your shelved shares. So, this biases your shares rewarded percentage to be worse.
Likewise, the opposite can happen during a lucking time artificially showing higher shares rewarded.
Now this is much better luck today! Finally!!! I was beginning to feel like I was mining on Slush's pool...!
A 48 minute round, 2 hour round, and an amazing 16 minute round!!! We've clawed back some of our share reward percent, but it'll still take several more blocks to overcome the losses accumulated over the last several days.
Well, that's quite comforting to see that, after more than a week of despair. A 48 minute round, 2 hour round, and an amazing 16 minute round!!! We've clawed back some of our share reward percent, but it'll still take several more blocks to overcome the losses accumulated over the last several days.
Now this is much better luck today! Finally!!! I was beginning to feel like I was mining on Slush's pool...!
A 48 minute round, 2 hour round, and an amazing 16 minute round!!! We've clawed back some of our share reward percent, but it'll still take several more blocks to overcome the losses accumulated over the last several days.
A 48 minute round, 2 hour round, and an amazing 16 minute round!!! We've clawed back some of our share reward percent, but it'll still take several more blocks to overcome the losses accumulated over the last several days.
Smoke and Mirrors
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
Maybe yes. Maybe no. Luck is luck.
Generally, though, if you continuously mine, as mentioned previously, your shares rewarded will tend towards 100% and land in the upper 90s% over time. If you get a low shares rewarded over a short period, then quit mining, chances are much smaller of getting a higher shares rewarded percentage.
Well, you keep talking about long term averages. Define long term, please. In finances long term is >1year.
I am telling you that I had one machine working almost constantly for 1 year with 94% average (this machine stopped working just before the recent calamity) and another working with some gaps for >1 year with 91.6% now (and still going down from the same 94% three weeks ago)
So here are my facts. I don't know what is causing a difference between expected 98% and 94% that I see. I would discount 91.6% (from 94) to bad luck in the last 2-3 weeks, but I won't discount 94 vs 98% expected.
What could be a potential cause?
I would like to hear possible explanation re this. Could it be that extended payout times caused it (because of higher probability of hitting an orphan during non-pay period)? Something else?
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
Maybe yes. Maybe no. Luck is luck.
Generally, though, if you continuously mine, as mentioned previously, your shares rewarded will tend towards 100% and land in the upper 90s% over time. If you get a low shares rewarded over a short period, then quit mining, chances are much smaller of getting a higher shares rewarded percentage.
i have shares rewarded 47,88%
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
i will get paid in the future for these shares?
If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Alternatively, is 92-94% after a year low or as expected?
The good thing about Eligius is that it pays block fees towards the share log, which is a good sweetener
At some point in the future, I guess, fees will be enough to compensate for orphan/stale blocks, and maybe more.As mentioned, I investigate every stale block. Definitely might seem like there have been a few more than normal recently, but unfortunately nothing crazy. Mainly just Eligius and another pool finding a block at roughly the same time and sometimes winning, sometimes not.
After the next halving transaction fees are going to be a larger percentage of the block reward and I think this is going to make a bit of a difference. If transaction fees ever actually take off as a real source of income for miners then just putting them to the share log will have to be reevaluated, but for now there is no need since they don't quite offset stale blocks completely.
Transaction fees + NMC->BTC can be pretty close to covering that ~2% stale.
Over the past two years with 25% off time I mined 98.02%.
Yep, that's about the same as the lifetime long term average. Additionally, the last I checked (not recently) other pools were roughly the same before their fees.
Over the past two years with 25% off time I mined 98.02%.
If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Alternatively, is 92-94% after a year low or as expected?
The good thing about Eligius is that it pays block fees towards the share log, which is a good sweetener
At some point in the future, I guess, fees will be enough to compensate for orphan/stale blocks, and maybe more.
Question;OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Answer;Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
Answer;Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Alternatively, is 92-94% after a year low or as expected?
If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Alternatively, is 92-94% after a year low or as expected?
If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.
color me confused.
On one hand OP says that it is all bad luck, like once in 20 years bad, which in itself is problematic in my opinion as it is less likely to happen.
On the the other hand, OP introduced a possibility of hardware/software shenanigans from outside the pool, presumably by manufacturer(s).
So, is it purely bad luck, shenanigans or a combination thereof?
I was under impression that after a year or so luck should be close to 100%.
Well, I've got slightly less than 92% on one account and 94% on another account (that got disconnected before the recent calamity) to show while hashing to eligius for >12mo, not a couple of hours or five days.
I am not complaining, but would like to understand the process a bit better.
On one hand OP says that it is all bad luck, like once in 20 years bad, which in itself is problematic in my opinion as it is less likely to happen.
On the the other hand, OP introduced a possibility of hardware/software shenanigans from outside the pool, presumably by manufacturer(s).
So, is it purely bad luck, shenanigans or a combination thereof?
I was under impression that after a year or so luck should be close to 100%.
Well, I've got slightly less than 92% on one account and 94% on another account (that got disconnected before the recent calamity) to show while hashing to eligius for >12mo, not a couple of hours or five days.
I am not complaining, but would like to understand the process a bit better.
Well how i understand pps the pool accepts all the shares submitted by the miner and rewards them predetermined about based on the current network diff. no block confirms are attached to the payment and of course the pools fee for the risk of no block confirms
Thats straight PPS, yes. No pools do this anymore since there is just too much risk involved. There is essentially no reasonable fee that a pool could set to ensure they can pay a PPS rate.
I have not confirmed if they actually are straight PPS though.
I stand corrected, although I have some serious doubts about them actually paying straight PPS... I'll have to investigate one day if I get time.
Antpool and f2pool also don't pay transaction fees to miners. This is going to become more important, especially after the next reward halving.
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