My guess is that Eligius does something odd with it's share accounting - maybe adding the orphaned shares to the next valid block? If they're doing that, I can't undo it and determine the actual luck and CDF
For stats and reward purposes at Eligius, orphaned blocks are treated as if they never happened (the round continues, share count continues, the orphaned block's share is just another share in the longer round). Does this help at all?
Yes it does, and sounds familiar. I think we've had this chat before and I'd forgotten.
The stats don't waste time calculating the accepted share count for an orphaned block,
I understand why the scoring has been set up that way since - in a way and from the miner's POV - the orphaned block never occurred at all. However doing so means:
* Your pool luck scores conflate losses of blocks to orphans (which will vary) and poor pool luck (which should in the long term equal 1). This means that any analysis of the accepted / expected share values can only be estimates using the method suggested below.
* Whenever a miner compares your luck scores to that of another pool, your score will always appears lower since you include the shares attributed to the orphaned block.
but the time stamps are there for them in the stats and API, and a reasonable approximation could be made I'm sure.
I think so too. Your API is great, has as much information in it as anyone would need.
So, for anyone who wants to recalculate the luck for Eligius, just take the durations for the orphaned blocks and the block immediately following them, split the shares from the second block between the two blocks according to the ratios of the durations, and you're done.
note: the 'profit percentage' plot on my blog avoids this issue completely by including orphaned blocks.
