Topic: Elliot Waves, what are they!? (Read 2546 times)

Ah, fair enough. I always assumed the fibo was an integral part of EW, since EW itself seems fundamentally fibonacci structured (i.e., 3 corrective waves, 5 impulse, together they make 8, 13 subwaves within a 5-3-5 ABC, 21 subwaves within a full impulse cycle etc, all fibonacci numbers).

But maybe fib projections specifically are not part of textbook EW, wouldn't know since most of what I learnt is from watching you, chessnut and others

You just answered your own question!
It's the fibo that determines targets not EW itself. This falls in the "other tools" category that I spoke of in my post. Granted the specific point within a count is what determines the fibo ratio to base your predictions on, but still isn't the EW making the targets.

Now I'm confused, especially since hearing this from an EW master such as yourself; surely EW provides targets? You showed me that in your thread, using the standard fibonacci ratios to accurately predict the length of waves, and I have since applied these methods (mostly) very successfully, having orders filled just at the turn of the tide based on fibonacci levels alone.

Granted, they are approximations and could prove false altogether if you are on the wrong track (or burn you if it under/overextends), and other signals such as indicator divergences compliment EW very well and rule out a lot of uncertainty, but if your count is valid the EW/Fib principles can be astoundingly accurate in giving price targets, more so than any other TA I know of.

Thanks Ry, I try and follow my own thing. Getting back to the original point of this thread - the EW idea just seemed to fit, on a gut instinct level, what I'd heard from the proponents of the idea. (also not planning on selling account ever - why the hell would you!?)

Sure, I couldn't draw you a chart saying this or that was gonna happen. In fact my post was just as bad as all the articles you see on CCN or whatever that basically just say "the price did this, the price did that, tomorrow it might go up or down". Mind blowing stuff!

Distilling from the crap I wrote earlier - what I said, was that in the long term the price will go up, in the short term it *might* still go down.

In my very limited understanding of EW

the *very* short term down is likely exhausted.
we never went below the start of the primary wave, so the road is open for the next impulse

and thats it! no chart. no targets. just a hunch based on the psychological ideas of EW.

price wise - i leave that to the experts

sgbett,
First let me start off saying that you are a different breed of HODLer. You are a voice of reason amongst a sea of HODL, the likes of which is enough to make me want to sell my forum account to the highest scammer bidder (I wouldn't think of it, but hopefully you get my drift).

Next, I'm glad that you see the merit in EW. It is indeed an art. It takes a special type of commitment to fully learn and properly apply EW. It's not so hard once you begin to "get it", it's the learning process that turns many off very early. I like to believe that I proved it's merit to the naysayers of TA but it seems memories and information retention run short in this forum.

@thread
I will agree with the posters that said you can't use EW as your sole strategy. 100% agreed! I preached that in my thread. EW is too ambiguous to use alone. That said, It is an EXTREMELY useful tool when used correctly. I don't care about politics, manipulation, new exchanges or regulation... It's all factored into the waves. EW doesn't see these things ahead of time, but it does offer invalidation points to quickly adapt to the changes in the market psychology. Psychology that is affected with every penny change that occurs in every wave, every day.

In example; USA regulates the everlasting shit outta Bitcoin, and all other exchanges decide to cooperate with the SEC/IRS/.gov and report all 'murican traders P/L. Traders flee the market in droves and causes my bullish count to end early. A whole wave early. What do I do now??? Well, the invalidation confirms that the 3 waver we just saw is now corrective and we head down. The duration is indeterminate with EW. The amplitude is unknown with EW. The only thing I can tell you is that the next move(s) are down. That is what EW does. It shows what is possible and impossible to happen next. It doesn't "predict what prices will do with precision in the following weeks or months". That isn't what it's for. EW doesn't give targets except that you can expect a price lower than X or higher than Y. That is where other tools come into play.

Also mat, just to show what buy and hold really means, when price was up around 900 or so I suggested we'd go as low as 280. I was too optimistic in price, and I was too premature with time (predicted it would bottom midway through last year) but at the time its what I thought, and was within the magnitude of what has transpired

I believed we would correct this low, its still hurt like hell watching it happen, but thats what I signed up to when I decided that I was going to hold through it.

Percentage wise, it was easier than the drop from 32 back down to 2. Absolute dollar wise, nut sack crackingly more painful.

I mean show me a man who wouldn't be distraught at watching his $2000 stake turn into $300. ¡Aye Caramba!

Sticking to the plan though

@Mat

we went head to head a bit a while ago when the bear market was on. you said it was going down (you were right). I said hold (still think I'm right). what I think I want to clarify is that I think we can both be right. you've said yourself you are shit trader, I would say that I'm probably worse (just check this contest hehe) so what I would say is *knowing* I am shit trader, means that I know I can't beat buy and hold, which means that if I believe that BTC *is* actually going somewhere in the end (I always have - though i'll admit recent bear market gave me the jitters again, just like the crash from 32) then the best bet is to buy and hold with everything I can afford to lose. So, I guess what I am saying is you and every one else saying BTC is going down were all right, all the time it was happening. I couldn't disagree with that premise, I couldn't say it wasn't going to carry on for another 1, 10 or 100 days but what I always maintained - and always will - is that I think that bear market will end.

Now there is a an ever swelling herd of posters, convinced of the opposite - that this is the end, that the decline will continue etc etc what they refuse to see is that they are thinking, behaving and posting exactly like the euphoric bulls were during the runup. They can't see the irony in it.

Your first reply you had me up until the point where you said double digits. Thats where I though maybe you were infected with the dysphoria too. I absolutely agree that there is definitely hard time ahead. Whilst everyone is posting how ETF + regulated exchanges = moon. What I am doing is thinking, ETF + regulated exchanges means diabolical, constant, persistent scalping of naive traders. There has *never* been a worse time to try and trade bitcoin, because now "wall st is coming", you are more likely to get raped than ever. Now, more than ever is when you hold. There will be no parabolic rise at all, there will be no clear cut rise (check in 5 years though), the will be no perceivable opportunity except those that are telegraphed then subsequently ripped out from under your noses. Destroying your accounts. Wall st is coming, for sure, but it does not mean what people think it means.

The only way you will succeed is by being one step ahead, by not being emotionally controlled. They *want* you trade, wall st isn't here because it thinks It'll buy now and wait for parabolic rise to moon. Thats what naive holders are doing, and they will succumb to fear and their bankroll will whittle as surely as the tide. Wall st is here because it knows that when parabolic rise to moon happens, they can stop hunt, margin call, book paint, front run and perhaps even totally corner the market. They want to gouge everyone all the way up, and then sit pretty when it hits the moon, having it all. The only way to get too moon with them, is to not let them know you are on the rocket; they *will* take your seat.

So much as the bears warned everybody to sell now whilst they had the chance, all the way down (when should one buy back exactly btw? because the bears are still yelling SELL and I'm thinking we turned a corner of late...) I am now warning anyone that is in, or isn't in, that if you think you can out-trade wall st, with there bankroll bigger than the entire BTC market, there HFT algos and who knows whatever else then I feel you are sadly mistaken. Statistically speaking you lose. For every person that posts bragging about their "massive gainz today" there are a hundred who will not gladly post how much they lost. The only winning move is not to play. It's HALementary dear watson!

@mmtech re funniest post: tell me you see the irony in trying to portray bearish sentiment on a picture that showed a mountain of bids and a sea of asks !? painted or not, you have to try real hard to argue that order book was anything other than what it was!

Ok, in summation.

Logical thinking tells me that Bitcoin probably has a future and will probably be worth multiple times what it is worth now at some point in the distant future. But that is just reasoned thought from the 'rational' mind which is capable of holding between 7-12 factors in consideration at any one time.

My intuition on the other hand, tells me that Bitcoin is going to go much lower than it is now, which means I am keeping the fuck away from it.

It does annoy me that I have called Bitcoin's movements pretty accurately yet again and have failed to take a position....but something in me fears that the time when I do make a move, will be the time when I get it horribly wrong, or do something impulsive and utterly stupid and take another beating. For this reason, I am not interested in leverage, shorting, or trading in general. If I am to touch Bitcoin again, then i will buy and hold for a duration of time and for that I have to feel certain that the prevailing course of the market has turned and at the moment that just isn't the case.

I don't care about any parables of the man who bought in 2011 at $32 but held. For all i know my mate who bought in summer 2014 at $640 could multiply is investment by a factor of ten in the next five years. If that is the case then good, but I personally don't want anymore Bitcoin headfucks.

Regarding the last bear market through 2011-2012. There was only a very small window of opportunity to get in right at the $2 bottom, but a long long time to get in at around $5 or less. Once Bitcoin does bottom, it will take a long long time before it becomes clear that the bottom was in and enthusiasm and momentum returns to the market. There is no rush here whatsoever.

These terms can be hard to define (intuition, emotion, conscious mind, sub conscious mind, etc) and I fear we might talk past each other due to subtle differences in understanding of what these terms mean. So I will try not to get into a debate over what they do mean (which would derail the point I am trying to make).

So here's my question: what are you more certain of: a) your ability to predict short term movements (which includes, but is not limited to, your prediction that it may go to double digits), or b) your ability to predict long term movements (which includes, but is not limited to, your prediction that it will go to the stratosphere)? I would like you to use whatever will give you the most honest and reliable results (intuition, logic, emotion, conscious, sub-conscious, or other) under the most optimal of conditions (skin in the game, skin not in the game, whatever). I submit to you that you are more confident in your long term predictions, most importantly: that it will eventually hit the stratosphere; but you refuse to act on this prediction because you do not believe you can control your impulses while day trading. And I submit to you that this is tragic because the obvious answer is to make a small bet on long term success, and then don't day trade, no matter what, even if (or when!) it short-term plummets.

EDIT:
I would categorize this as fooling the emotional part of your mind -- I point it out as an example of what I mean by the risk that we might "talk past each other" due to using terms in subtly different ways. (So that we can make sure not to let that happen )

This confirms at least a part of my previous post. I submit that what you should have done is bought at whatever price and you should plan on holding for at least 3-5 years, and that even if it plummets to 10 cents (hell, plummets to zero) you won't sell.

Suppose a friend of yours (friend #1) said that he bought one bitcoin in 2011 at $32. He refused to sell even it crashed to $2. He still holds that 1 bitcoin. Friend #2 said that he thought about buying at $10 but never bought because he was waiting for it to go sub $1. Both friends are (and were at the time) relatively (and equally) confident (in their logical mind) that it will reach the moon in the looooooong run.

Which friend was the wise one (if either), and which the fool (if either)?

I would say that you have that back to front.

Manipulators can far more easily 'fool' the conscious mind with emotion packed media reports and/or high minded statistics than the sub-conscious mind which exists on a far deeper realm than any of that bullshit.

'Emotions' are not the same as logical thinking and neither is the same as 'intuition'. Intuition is the thing that tells you, "I may feel all excited/nervous/positive/ negative about Factor A, or having done these very complex calculations, I come to this conclusion about Factor A, but some instinctive feeling/insight somehow tells me something quite the opposite."

What would you say to the following argument:
TPTB (the manipulators) want to control you. They know that it's FAR easier for them to manipulate your emotions (and therefore your 'intuition') than your conscious 'logical thinking' mind, so that's what they do. Therefore, they 1) manipulate your emotions towards whatever end suits their purposes and 2) they advocate any philosophy that will encourage people to eschew logical thinking in favor of 'intuition,' because that's who they prey on.

If that's true -- doesn't that piss you off???

I say that when I next put money into Bitcoin, I am going to feel very sure that the market is going to generally go in my direction.

If the market goes as much as 10% against my position, I will sell, no doubt about it. The one time I decided to fight this impulse was during a leveraged short trade back in April 2014. Bitcoin had just crashed down to $340, and bounced back up to $420, where I shorted it in accordance with my belief at the time that Bitcoin would find it's ultimate bottom at around $270. It got down as far as $399 but then popped right up to around $470. Normally, I would have liquidated my trade immediately at such an event but I was getting fed up of losing money on trades where time and time again it was proven to me that had I only held on a bit longer, than I would have had the chance to break even at least, and actually normally profit. You have no idea how many trades I opened where my general bet was in the right direction, but I took a hit on due to my nerve going as the market moved against me. So this time was going to be different! I was going to HOLD my position and refuse to take a loss. Over the next few days Bitcoin hit around $547 on Bitfinex, which was just $2 more than the price at which my position would have been totally liquidated had I not finally lost my nerve at $512, taking what was to me a massive financial hit (I lost about 3K GBP on that trade).

Naturally, the market did indeed get back down to my break even level and remained there for a good few days, taunting me the whole time.

and that is my explanation why if I ever put money back into Bitcoin I will have to be certain that the only way is up.

....I have proven to myself that I am generally pretty decent at calling the market as long as I don't have skin in the game. As soon as I have a financial interest I am hovering over the charts like a schizophrenic out-patient on acid and make some fucking shocking impulse decisions. I have to keep away from that shit.

You are right, nobody can tell the future. Even the most ardent bulls know (whether they like to admit it or not) that total failure is a possibility.

It seems to me you are a victim of your emotions. I think that deep down, you believe that: (1) despite the risks and unknowns, and even despite the manipulation, there is a reasonably good chance that bitcoin will hit the stratosphere over the next however many years -- certainly in your lifetime. (I share that belief.) You also believe (and have stated rather adamently) that (2) you are not good at playing the short term ups and downs. (I share that trait.) If you take these two beliefs seriously, and consider them soberly, then the rational thing to do would be to place a small bet on its long term success, and ride out whatever the hell it does in the short term. I have the suspicion that you KNOW this, but don't act on it, and the question is why. Two possible explanations:
1) (Less likely explanation) You estimate that the long term chance of going to the stratosphere is actually pretty low. In this case, it is rational to stay out of the market completely. However, I don't believe this explanation, based on your earlier post (in which you said: "Ultimately, Bitcoin will be ramped into the stratosphere").
2) (More likely explanation) You do not think that you have the discipline to resist converting your strategy from buy and hold to day trading. Therefore, you stay out completely. I think you've at least implied that this is the case.

If explanation 2) is the correct one, then that feels a little tragic because: haters will hate and manipulators will manipulate, but try as they might, they are powerless to prevent you from following whatever YOU consider to be a rational and disciplined investment strategy.

What say you?

Changed my answer to your previous post..completely....

But I had a mate who bought in at $640 back when the World Cup was still on last year. At this point, I was pretty convinced that Bitcoin was going to tank, and attempted to ram home my negative sentiment with him, without telling him that he absolutely must sell those coins for a small loss, immediately! (I don't like to talk about the fact that for some reason I acted against my own advice on an impulsive whim and bought at $620, just days before crash down to $400 range, where I sold at $550 on the way down, resulting in yet another nasty Bitcoin loss für mich)

His response was "I don't care about these prices, in years to come, Bitcoin is going to be worth thousands"

These days, Bitcoin being worth 30% of what he paid for it causes him a lot of consternation and stress, as you may imagine. I would rather avoid all that and lets face it. Nobody can tell the future. Bitcoin might fail. The only thing my intuition tells me is that there will be lower lows to come. The idea of Bitcoin one day being ramped up into outer space is simply a speculation of the conscious 'logical' mind. When it comes to these things, I put far more stock in 'intuition', than logical thinking.

I'm asking because if you really do believe that it will eventually (timecourse of years) ramp to the stratosphere (for whatever reason), why not just buy and hold? Even if you had bought at $1000, and it plunges tomorrow to $10, you still ultimately do better than staying out completely if it eventually hits the stratosphere. 

First statement suggesting a lower low and even double figure bitcoin, is intuition and nothing more.....but it will come to pass, just you wait and see.

The second statement of Bitcoin being ultimately ramped through the roof is mental speculation.....tin foil hattery if you like, as i am seeing all these billionaire VCs etc invest in Bitcoin and I am seeing Western governments and large corporations approving of it everywhere. It has a future. Big Capital is showing increasing interest and I suspect that they are also key to driving down the price, intentionally, as they look to take a controlling stake in the Bitcoin system, for as cheap as possible, which means buying from miners and other large BTC holders as cheap as possible. If all this conjecture rings somewhat true, then surely the end game won't be to drive Bitcoin down to beneath $10 and keep it there, but rather to eventually to ramp the shit out of it.

Ralph 'Elliot Wave' Elliot (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948)

No actually I like to read analysis that's objective but at the same time doesn't sound arrogant because that's definitely not a sign of objectivity. I'm comfortable enough about my own position that I don't have to rely on wishful thinking or analysis that confirms my position. I have bought some more coins below $200 and I have also increased my position a bit by active trading, but I don't put my entire life on the line on the success of Bitcoin. I don't ever expect to get rich here and I don't care to either, so I can look at this from quite an unattached viewpoint.

I would like to know: what is your degree of certainty in the above two statements? Personally, I think statement #2 is likely in the long run. I feel like I don't really know what's going to happen in the short term.