Pages:
Author

Topic: Elliot Waves, what are they!? - page 2. (Read 2475 times)

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
January 27, 2015, 01:45:39 PM
#26
anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

^^This!

His 'predictions' are often pretty bad but his grasp on the overall market direction has been totally spot on since I have became aware of him.

I would be interested to see what his current thoughts on Bitcoin are.

In TV chat he said that $160 is an intermediate bottom and that we will revisit it in due time after which the next bullish cycle will start. He thinks we either retest $160 but do not go below it or we do go lower and find a new bottom somewhere between $60 and $160. I respect his analysis but do not take his word as gospel just because his longer term prediction that the price would eventually revisit $200 level or lower turned out to be correct. There's another EW theorist I know who thinks $160 could very well have been the bottom but that it's more likely according to general EW theory that we will revisit it and find a bottom around $130. I personally like to listen to analysts who don't think analysis is a one-way street, there are always many possibilities with different odds you can assign to them and intuition also plays a big role here. I appreciate it if analysts actually show that and admit that their prediction is not the only possible outcome.

You listen to the analysts that makes you feel good about your position (serve your book) which is wrong.... the last 8 months I was in a daily basis reading so many analyzes, and I have to admit, till today some of the analyzes almost convince me of buying back, but after looking at the 1w chart I always decided to hold on to my position which I see is still working for me.

I can admit that this time, not buying feels a bit scary and risky not because of technical analyzes but because of the number of pumping news all around the place... the 1w chart still didnt fail me and nothing changed, I a still bearish, though it is getting riskier and riskier while we are approaching the bottom
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 251
January 27, 2015, 01:40:55 PM
#25
"Elliot Waves, what are they!?"

Waves made up by some guy named "Elliot"
Robert Prechter is an expert at using them for inaccurate price predictions ..

Triff ..
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
January 27, 2015, 01:38:01 PM
#24
The more a read about it the more I'm convinced its an art not a science. The important thing is I don't think its something that is entirely without merit. Whether you can use it predictively to trade? Maybe. Am I going to, certainly not Wink

What I do know is there does seem to be a some logic behind the idea of impulsive moves.

I've seen various counts proposed for the bear market, and one of my favourites was the one where the ABC bearish correction coincides with large volume spike down a few days ago.

I also like the idea put forward about the throwover, my gut tells me this would be likely especially around 'big' (primary? sorry i don't know the terminology so well) waves. I think that the long bear market we went through was a pretty solid one.

So If we are starting a new 12345 main wave then we'll also be starting the smaller waves too, what we just saw, the impulsive bounce of what may prove to be the bottom, with our first exponential run up in a long long time (we've had ups but they have always looked like corrections over over sold positions in an otherwise downwardly moving market - this looked very different).

Then the sell off, which appears to be a normal correction event in a generally bullish trend.

It all looks very much like how elliot waves would unfold.

I guess what I'm saying is I think the next bull market is here, and the charts we are seeing look like they will make for some very convincing EW counts...




Check out some of the charts from this guy: https://www.tradingview.com/u/user100000/

Really good track record since i've been following him on TV. Worth noting that he expects the bull run to hit around 28k
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
January 27, 2015, 01:21:19 PM
#23
anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

^^This!

His 'predictions' are often pretty bad but his grasp on the overall market direction has been totally spot on since I have became aware of him.

I would be interested to see what his current thoughts on Bitcoin are.

In TV chat he said that $160 is an intermediate bottom and that we will revisit it in due time after which the next bullish cycle will start. He thinks we either retest $160 but do not go below it or we do go lower and find a new bottom somewhere between $60 and $160. I respect his analysis but do not take his word as gospel just because his longer term prediction that the price would eventually revisit $200 level or lower turned out to be correct. There's another EW theorist I know who thinks $160 could very well have been the bottom but that it's more likely according to general EW theory that we will revisit it and find a bottom around $130. I personally like to listen to analysts who don't think analysis is a one-way street, there are always many possibilities with different odds you can assign to them and intuition also plays a big role here. I appreciate it if analysts actually show that and admit that their prediction is not the only possible outcome.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
January 27, 2015, 01:20:06 PM
#22
... Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

French decimal clocks are always wrong Cool



*well, not always
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
January 27, 2015, 01:12:20 PM
#21
EW = bullshit.




Sorry for the EW lovers here but that's what I think.

EW tries to to predict what prices will do with precision in the following weeks or months, that's not really how TA should be used.
Sure if a chart looks like the classic Wall Street bubble chart it's probably a safe bet to expect lower prices the following months, but EW goes way too far in its predictions.

I mean if you are doing it for fun or as an interesting exercise all good, but you shouldn't really integrate it in your strategy.


TA is supposed to give you buy signals or sell signals that have a high chance of playing in your favour. Trading the moment and going with the flow and following the trend.

TA should be simple. The more complicated tools you use the higher the chances you'll fuck it up.
Ignore indicators or fancy shit, they don't predict much most of the time and you don't need them. If you use them too much, chances are you are overtrading.



Trading should be about: trend lines, wedges, pennants, double tops, double bottoms, breakouts, checking the depth chart, checking the trade history bar in real time.
And especially volume. Volume is absolutely crucial.
You should trade the big moves and ignore the noise, the choppy consolidations.

Then of course you have to develop the "feel" for a market knowing how it tends to usually behave.




That's pretty much it imo.



PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

Excellent post, first try to deeply understand the market and community behind it, you can't 100% rely on indicators because most of them are lagging, and this is why you need to have a sense or a kind of a feeling for potential directions.


Most importantly, try to trade only big moves, look deeply at charts, don't bother with the short term ones (2h,1h,30m,15m,5m,1m), make your decision based on a combined look short and long term charts  (4h and 1w) this will help you minimize the risk and prevent you from trading the noise.

If you want to "daily trade" then just follow the trend, buy when it is going up and sell when it is going down, and yes I just said that, it works (just don't be greedy about it and it will work), a Bot is recommended in this case.


Edit: forgot to tell OP: funniest post ever, I don't think we are really close to a bull market, you are just depressed and desperate.
legendary
Activity: 4032
Merit: 4562
You're never too old to think young.
January 27, 2015, 12:57:39 PM
#20
EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo.

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

You quoted me while I was editing my post.

You're right. No TA takes the important considerations into account.

This is why I take all "technical" analysis with a grain of salt. Fact analysis and deductive reasoning work better.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1004
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
January 27, 2015, 12:56:54 PM
#19
No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

This thread is getting a bit 'blah blah' already........

.......but the only Bitcoin analyst who i know to have stated when Bitcoin was still in the upper treble figures, that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $100 range, was an EW analyst basing his prediction on EW principles.

It never came close to $100.  Anyway, who cares?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
January 27, 2015, 12:53:38 PM
#18
No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

This thread is getting a bit 'blah blah' already........

.......but the only Bitcoin analyst who i know to have stated when Bitcoin was still in the upper treble figures, that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $100 range, was an EW analyst basing his prediction on EW principles.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1004
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
January 27, 2015, 12:50:19 PM
#17
EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo.

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.
legendary
Activity: 4032
Merit: 4562
You're never too old to think young.
January 27, 2015, 12:48:51 PM
#16
EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo. Those are the real-life things that should be the basis of market analysis.
sr. member
Activity: 285
Merit: 250
Turning money into heat since 2011.
January 27, 2015, 12:44:35 PM
#15
EW = Sucker's tool

At best, EW accounts for a very minimal part of what influences value-- and is only marginally effective at predicting investor's actions in highly stable markets.  EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
January 27, 2015, 12:39:53 PM
#14
anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

^^This!

His 'predictions' are often pretty bad but his grasp on the overall market direction has been totally spot on since I have became aware of him.

I would be interested to see what his current thoughts on Bitcoin are.

Wall Street is not moving into bitcoin (not the currency itself anyway) because it does not give a single flying fuck.

You think so?

Bitcoin = banned/frowned upon by adversaries to US foreign policy, yet being given the green light in the West!?

Seems pretty fucking establishment approved to me.

I believe that you will get your wish of horrendously low Bitcoin prices that will make most in here piss their pants, but I really don't think that Bitcoin is going away, even if it may seem at one point like it will die, it won't die and one day will come back bigger than ever.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1004
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
January 27, 2015, 12:39:05 PM
#13
EW = bullshit.


Pretty much true.

EW Theory doesn't say much
that is meaningful other than that when there
is a major price movement, there will be an
initial spike, a pullback, a bigger move, and
then another pullback before a final push.
 
It's really not that useful.   If it helps you,
great, but IMO certainly shouldn't
be the basis of a trading strategy.

full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 27, 2015, 12:36:06 PM
#12
Quote
I was responding to Mat and his comment about Wall Street coming in.

Oh. He and Trollchop are the only 2 on my ignore list. You're close.
My posting style can be a little direct but I am usually fairly reasonable in the contents Grin
No need for the ignore button  Grin
legendary
Activity: 4032
Merit: 4562
You're never too old to think young.
January 27, 2015, 12:33:03 PM
#11
Quote
I was responding to Mat and his comment about Wall Street coming in.

Oh. He and Trollchop are the only 2 on my ignore list. You're close.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 27, 2015, 12:32:45 PM
#10
anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.
I remember him predicting a big rise in the middle of the august-october downtrend, no such thing happened.
Other big fuck ups too.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1074
January 27, 2015, 12:30:20 PM
#9
anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 27, 2015, 12:29:48 PM
#8
-beartard rant-

This has exactly what to do with Elliott waves?
I was responding to Mat and the part of his post about Wall Street getting in.
legendary
Activity: 4032
Merit: 4562
You're never too old to think young.
January 27, 2015, 12:28:44 PM
#7
-beartard rant-

This has exactly what to do with Elliott waves?
Pages:
Jump to: