Topic: Elliot Waves, what are they!? - page 2. (Read 2546 times)

In TV chat he said that $160 is an intermediate bottom and that we will revisit it in due time after which the next bullish cycle will start. He thinks we either retest $160 but do not go below it or we do go lower and find a new bottom somewhere between $60 and $160. I respect his analysis but do not take his word as gospel just because his longer term prediction that the price would eventually revisit $200 level or lower turned out to be correct. There's another EW theorist I know who thinks $160 could very well have been the bottom but that it's more likely according to general EW theory that we will revisit it and find a bottom around $130. I personally like to listen to analysts who don't think analysis is a one-way street, there are always many possibilities with different odds you can assign to them and intuition also plays a big role here. I appreciate it if analysts actually show that and admit that their prediction is not the only possible outcome.

The more a read about it the more I'm convinced its an art not a science. The important thing is I don't think its something that is entirely without merit. Whether you can use it predictively to trade? Maybe. Am I going to, certainly not

What I do know is there does seem to be a some logic behind the idea of impulsive moves.

I've seen various counts proposed for the bear market, and one of my favourites was the one where the ABC bearish correction coincides with large volume spike down a few days ago.

I also like the idea put forward about the throwover, my gut tells me this would be likely especially around 'big' (primary? sorry i don't know the terminology so well) waves. I think that the long bear market we went through was a pretty solid one.

So If we are starting a new 12345 main wave then we'll also be starting the smaller waves too, what we just saw, the impulsive bounce of what may prove to be the bottom, with our first exponential run up in a long long time (we've had ups but they have always looked like corrections over over sold positions in an otherwise downwardly moving market - this looked very different).

Then the sell off, which appears to be a normal correction event in a generally bullish trend.

It all looks very much like how elliot waves would unfold.

I guess what I'm saying is I think the next bull market is here, and the charts we are seeing look like they will make for some very convincing EW counts...

^^This!

His 'predictions' are often pretty bad but his grasp on the overall market direction has been totally spot on since I have became aware of him.

I would be interested to see what his current thoughts on Bitcoin are.

... Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

EW = bullshit.




Sorry for the EW lovers here but that's what I think.

EW tries to to predict what prices will do with precision in the following weeks or months, that's not really how TA should be used.
Sure if a chart looks like the classic Wall Street bubble chart it's probably a safe bet to expect lower prices the following months, but EW goes way too far in its predictions.

I mean if you are doing it for fun or as an interesting exercise all good, but you shouldn't really integrate it in your strategy.


TA is supposed to give you buy signals or sell signals that have a high chance of playing in your favour. Trading the moment and going with the flow and following the trend.

TA should be simple. The more complicated tools you use the higher the chances you'll fuck it up.
Ignore indicators or fancy shit, they don't predict much most of the time and you don't need them. If you use them too much, chances are you are overtrading.



Trading should be about: trend lines, wedges, pennants, double tops, double bottoms, breakouts, checking the depth chart, checking the trade history bar in real time.
And especially volume. Volume is absolutely crucial.
You should trade the big moves and ignore the noise, the choppy consolidations.

Then of course you have to develop the "feel" for a market knowing how it tends to usually behave.




That's pretty much it imo.



PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

This thread is getting a bit 'blah blah' already........

.......but the only Bitcoin analyst who i know to have stated when Bitcoin was still in the upper treble figures, that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $100 range, was an EW analyst basing his prediction on EW principles.

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

Bingo.

EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

Wall Street is not moving into bitcoin (not the currency itself anyway) because it does not give a single flying fuck.

EW = bullshit.

Oh. He and Trollchop are the only 2 on my ignore list. You're close.

I was responding to Mat and his comment about Wall Street coming in.

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

This has exactly what to do with Elliott waves?

-beartard rant-