Topic: End of the Bear Trend - page 4. (Read 11216 times)

Bassclef, in your opinion does a bottom need to be put in with a under $100 washout?

I trade these markets as a business so let's not mince words. I know what volume is

The market is manipulated from both sides in the sense that when the biggest moneyed interests take position, the price moves and others follow. I don't think we disagree on that--it's how a market is made. Their moves, however, are often designed to separate amateurs from their money. That is a fact if you have any experience in markets outside of Bitcoin. It is not a conspiracy, it is a business. And if you think that doesn't happen in such an easy market to take control of, I've got news for you. This is apart from organic buying and selling from the public, which actually happens less often than you might think.

Market tests are a very real thing--the difference is that before an upmove, they happen to the downside. Before a downmove, they happen to the upside... USUALLY. Afterwards the market will generally revert to its medium or longer-term trend. The reason is this: If the pervading forces of supply/demand have been pushed far enough out of alignment, usually happening at tops and bottoms, it is difficult to move the market against the natural direction no matter how much of the stock you sell or buy. At market tops, ease-of-movement is down. At bottoms, it is up. This why markets move in waves and cycles. I think some trading groups don't understand this, but they will when they lose money trying to trade against prevailing forces, or the "trade winds" as it were. Once enough traders feel this wind on a very long timeline, the bear market comes to a close, first gradually and then quickly and violently. Trading short at the potential bottom of a bear market is simply putting oneself at too much risk.

Interests are collecting coins while sentiment is low in the same way antiques dealers buy junk from estate sales when nobody else wants it, refinish it and sell at a profit. It's the same way that real estate investors buy land when nobody else is interested--to profit from future sale of this land. Of course the buying parties are going to downplay its importance to their friends and the media and keep things as secretive as possible for more profit. The public (who generally don't think independently and wait for "experts" to tell them what to do) will parrot this negative sentiment and do the opposite of what they should be doing: buying with the professional interests. The last thing they want is for the public to know what they're doing and how much money they will make. It is the same business model in the markets: professional interests are selling to the public during euphoric market tops (distribution) the same stock they bought from the same panicky public at the bottom (accumulation). This happens over and over and over again, yet human fear makes it difficult to recognize and act on the opportunity when it's staring you in the face.

Hi chriswen, where do you find that info? i'd be quite interested to see more about that. Thanks

Well this is what happens when so many people play derivative markets with high leverage.  The futures market had massive volume today. 

80000 Bitcoin worth of volume.  So they could have longed at the bottom to hedge and they would've made money.  And they would have closed shorts for good profit too.  Huge money to be made in futures.

Well limit selling would raise a lot more with no slippage, so one wonders why they wouldn't do that if they need to raise fiat.

The only reason for big, orderly market sells is manipulation to lower the price, which means shorting, which means covering those shorts at some point by buying back in. Or they could be taking a big loss each time, who knows. Seems silly if that's the case.

14k coins were dumped on bitfinex.

Remind me, how does market selling 4000 coins on bitfenix increase your own stash?

In the best case, it raises near $1 mil USD which may or may not be used on the exchange again.

in a true free market, as time gets longer and longer, if govts. continue to print and make money out of nothing btc should raise to infinity in value,  but that is a mathematical model only,  the real world is quite different..... should be interesting to see what really happens,   things are at a turning point this year i believe...

I'm in agreement. The guys dumping now are just interested in scaring the market and running stops, etc., to increase their own stash. This has been occurring for months and months but will not work indefinitely.

I don't have a target but I regard bitcoin as undervalued. Particularly in the event that stock market eventually crashes (which it will), soverign debt failures, bank failures, more bailouts, more QE, as fiat continues a death spiral. Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will all benefit hugely. Stck up now while its cheap.

<213.92... lower low, test of 200, panic.

edit: Oh, the end of the... above 300 and stay there.

what is the next target if the end f the bear trend really proves to be true?

bitcoin is stronger than ever. when the price was dropping from $600 people were saying miners will shut down miners and difficulty would decrease significantly and so on. bitcoin proved these people wrong.

Damn its been 6 years with this coin.

And we still going strong, yeah minor set backs of no choice like mt.gox making the coin back down, but overall view from what I see its on the incline.

If you see that graph it goes all the way back when it was like $1.00 value lol.

Its not ignored, if price dips below again I'll start looking at lower parallel trendlines. For now I don't think its needed tho

I'm curious why you ignored the second local bottom around $212 for your rising trend line.
Not calling you out, just wondering  

Price still bouncing up the trendline..

The end in sight yet ?

So far the 'End of the Bear Trend' is still intact. Heres how its looking on latest chart from btc-e (log price scale)

All those lines, diverting attention from the actual trend - sideways.

The price has been between $200 and $250 for most of the last three months. There was a bubble in March, but it didn't last long. That's 2015 so far.

Bitcoin, the last few years:

2013 - Wow!
2014 - Aaargh!
2015 - Meh.