Topic: End of the Bear Trend - page 6. (Read 11216 times)

The goal is to find when supply is exhausted and the price can be supported on current demand. That's when one usually sees a turnaround. If it were so easy to short an endless downtrend, then everyone would do it. Easy money right? No, because the opposite tends to happen when a majority of market participants are on one side.

Yeah, that's what's happening at this point. This is basically what everyone's looking at. It's important to figure out, whether there's a new drop or whether we're really going up, this time. With "Squishy" turning green again, without first establishing a new low, I'd go as far as to say that the chances aren't so slim that we may be going up this time, instead!

Sorry, this sounds like what a politician would say. ambivalence

meanwhile

The potential for a big rally is building. Those with shorts open will soon feel the heat unless they are lucky enough for the market to come back to them.

A high volume selling climax to $166 paved the way for a potential bottom by causing a massive transfer of coins from weak to strong hands. Weak hands being those who bought at higher prices and were sucked in (via panic) to get back at least some of their investment; strong hands being those who sold earlier, institutional money, professional traders and other smart investors. This is an area where big money can buy directly into plenty of selling without putting up the price. And if enough selling is removed, the existing demand will create a bottom.

The selling, having been exhausted as evidenced by the inability for the market to test below $210, is now seen at very low levels. Everyone who is holding today is in it for the long haul; everyone who couldn't take the heat has already bailed. Now that coins have been redistributed to a smaller number of strong hands, supply is now limited. This is where sentiment begins to turn, and the big interests who bought rock bottom are now incentivized to entice the general public to buy. Spare me the morality of this implication--it is standard operating procedure in every market and not limited to Bitcoin.

Charles Dow said, "The public rarely sees values until they are pointed out." That is, not many have the time to think critically about investments and will wait until an "expert" tells them what to buy. To the public, a rising price suggests even higher prices. And at the beginning of bull markets the same lack of supply which caused a price bottom will cause the price to go up easily on any additional demand. The fact that Goldman Sachs is now interested has big implications in this area, as they have a huge influence in the world of investing, banking and media.

A trend reversal is only ever identified looking in the rear view mirror. We could quite easily have reversed at 166 with high volume. After a prolonged bear market (unlike 2011 and 2013) market interest is depressed. Volume will return en masse when the bitcoin bull market has officially restarted.

Yes.
Also, it needs to take into account that as price goes lower, volume measured in BTC goes up (because 1k BTC at $1000 ≠  1k BTC at $100). If you look at the volume measured in USD, the october bottom had a similar volume than the january one (on bitstamp and on chinese exchanges for example).

What's more important to look for regarding volume is that it has been decreasing since the january bottom (as others have already observed few weeks back). That's not a a trend reversal should look like (look at the increasing volume after the 2011 and 2013 trend reversals).

Yes, arguably, we could be saying that in a couple of months about $166 (if) we hit a new low. Get my point?

The biggest and most important difference being the drop on October 4th had nowhere near the volume we had on January 13th.

Good chart for perspective Afbitcoins.

Now, i believe the bear is asleep, for now, but will wake soon.

So, i'll be watching out for 2 critical points on your chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s37Q1J1P/)

Critical Price points to watch for potential reversal down - $245 (where purple lower line meets red dotted line from top)

$267 (where purple lower line meets red thick line from top).

I expect reversal at one of these two points (happy to be proved wrong).

Now, i recall this move up from last year october. Resembles yours - albeit from different time frames



For now, let us observe how this move unfolds.

Yeah i see same topic few month ago, i think thats no be happen dude. When price bottom $200. Many big player buy bitcoin for raise bitcoin price

Those we are fake out bear market is over predictions, this one is real since wehave a nice pretty chart and the $160 bottom, i like it

End of bear market was when we left the dip at $160.

This. A simple search on bear market and >

Your bear market is broken
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/your-bear-market-is-broken-609724

Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/was-today-a-sign-that-the-bear-market-is-dead-504601

Bitcoin Price Bull Market Has Begun!
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-price-bull-market-has-begun-900064

People is announcing the end of the bear trend since one year ago 
Anyway, time will put things right, we'll see.

I agree, but I've been saying for months that the absolutely huge volume selloff at Bitfinex in January is a good candidate for capitulation. Anything that removes that much selling from the market will have a bullish effect for some time, and it is why we've struggled to retest $200.

it could be a triangle wave, were there is a peak, then it return to its normal state, and everytime the peak is less than the previous one

something like this

I have heard this line for the last 6 months. 

It is a little premature. But it shows that a little concerted buying is all that is required now to break the trend. And the price we need to reach is dropping day by day.

Still too early to make any conclusion. It might just be a dead cat bounce for all we know and that's what happening all the time. I would say we still need to wait for a firm signal. If you plot the trend line, the price needs to at least cross the 320 level before we can say it has finally made the turn.

Just take popcorn and prepare to enjoy short squeeze massacre show