Topic: ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price? (Read 594 times)

On one side I'm quite happy with these financial instruments, and on the other side I would prefer them to not exist at all.

The positive side of having these instruments is that it grants Bitcoin legitimacy, which is a very important factor when it comes to shaking off altcoins that are slowly catching up due to people's stupidity.

The negative side is that it will turn Bitcoin into a market controlled by institutions just like how they control the prices of stocks and other assets. Bitcoin has grown too large to not be noticed by institutions.

Overall, with or without an ETF, the price will break new highs later on anyway. It only requires a bit more patience.

I just hope SEC will not make a negative decision at the first deadline in August, it would most likely have a negative impact on market - but I am not sure that such decision can shake up market to drop under 5000$.

VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust representatives are pretty confident that this time they have much greater chance than before, because they work on improvements and learn from mistakes. You can read more here : Proposed VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF is still a green light

If there will be negative decision let's say to EOY period (with is unlikely imo) there is going to be a massive hit in Bitcoin price and we should consider a lower leveles than 5kUSD or even 4,5kUSD.

By what was published in tweet from Jake Chervinsky it seems that final day for decision is actually March 4, 2019 because notice was published on July 2 and according to his interpretation weekends days are not counted in total days.


It seems that around these dates there is a real confusion, and maybe even March 4 is not final date. For now this does not affect the price, let's see how long and how high we can ride on this wave

Another extension?

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-83520.pdf

Looks like the first proposal for this was June 26th so it lines up with what he laid out for the other application he lists which dragged out for 240 days.

There's so little info that's being taken in that I'm sure someone like this knows more than your average Reddit zombie. I still see people calling it the CBOE ETF when all they're doing is applying for a rule change on behalf of the applicants.

I am not sure to get what he is saying
First, he explains how the extensions work there
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795228758548480

And then he says it's the last extension
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795231803559937
"This is the third & final extension allowed by law -- 15 U.S.C. § 78s(b)(2), in case you were wondering."

If the last extension ends on September 21, then what is the february 2019date

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795224958455810

According to this geezer they can stretch out their decision for this particular application until February 2019. I don't think the market will be able sustain its FOMO until then somehow.

So,  it's not so bad. We have until September to continue to see the Bitcoin price increasing.  For people like me who don't believe to see ETF approved at least,  we have something positive, 12 extra month.  Vague explanation from the SEC to explain the postpone by the way

I think if the ETF can be approved, then this will be a historic moment in the cryptocurrency market, and the convenience offered by ETH is likely to win the bull market!

I'm not sure what people actually think about BTC, most of people is here for quick earnings - buy low/sell high and it will take time to start experiencing it as a store of value. The biggest problem is BTC volatility, people are just scared that they could lose everything, so for most people it is just risk investment for now.
 


I am also thinking that those who will provide ETF services certainly accumulate BTC for some time, now they maybe just buy even more and this process is likely to continue. ETF will be approved sooner or later and it need real BTC, only question is how much will be interest from big investors.


There is some news that SEC is delayed decisions regarding some of ETFs, but it currently does not affect this main ETF from VanEck and SolidX. However is not impossible that SEC delay even this decision, it may be in next month, but it is not mandatory.

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

buying ETF shares means betting on the future price of bitcoin too.....

and i really hope the apparent irony of an ETF for a P2P currency is not lost on people here.

bitcoin futures with real delivery would be more important to the market because it would provide capital flow to the spot market. that's an actual avenue for BTC liquidity, which an ETF is not. you buy ETF shares for cash, and you sell them for cash, period. there is an assumption of arbitrage and therefore tracking the underlying, but as pointed out above that isn't necessarily the case at all.


the supply is already locked up. you think solidx and winklevoss are waiting for SEC approval to buy the coins backing their trusts?

It will be interesting for sure to see what will happen, especially so with how more and more people treat Bitcoin as gold. I hold some gold as well and it started way before I discovered Bitcoin. I wanted to have something with value that I can use in case fiat for whatever reason is no longer the main unit of exchange. I was accumulating gold, and almost stopped doing so after finding out that Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. I was never planned to sell my gold, just spend them when needed and the same applies to Bitcoin for me. If more people start to do the same, and I'm sure it's growing, the value will shoot up in the most badass way.

I think that we will rise towards 9000 usd, and upon hitting 10k see some retracement. I'd like to think we could finished above 10k by the end of the year. We have to be realistic 40k-50k is far off and will take a lot of sustained institutional investment and interest. Still early days for the king.

The price of BTC should be helpful. If the etf is successful, a lot of money will enter the encrypted market, and the price of BTC may break the previous high.

1 million coins is actually a very small amount considering that we have 17+ million mined coins, some of that is surely lost over time, but that means the majority of BTC waiting some better time to enter the market. I assumed that we need to wait for years in order to have a situation where demand exceeds supply. On the other hand LN "business" should definitely be a lucrative job for those who would know to take advantage of it.



It is a very big number of millionaires, the question is only whether they are interested to invest in BTC and move even small % of their wealth from stocks, gold, silver or fiat. Maybe ETF will change that, and even if 10% of them want to have 1 BTC, it is huge number which markets can not satisfy at this time.

I agree that BTC has an incredible potential, still insufficiently recognized by majority of big players. Optimists would say they just wait for the right moment, maybe they wait ETF or some other big thing - but that moment will come, there is no doubt about it.

I believe the ETF being considered is not for some derivative of Bitcoin but to hold actual Bitcoin. The firm would be buying actual Bitcoin to hold for all their ETF clients. It's no different than Coinbase buying for institutional investors, they'll be buying real Bitcoin. By all accounts it seems Bitcoin ETFs would be very popular as most of the investment community doesn't understand or want to deal with the workings of bitcoin but wants access to Bitcoin's gains, and an ETF is exactly how they would do that. Over time it could bring in tens of billions of dollars, which could correspond to tens of thousands in the Bitcoin price. Think of like 20 million people deciding to put 2% of their whole portfolio in Bitcoin. That'd be tens of billions without even getting into the big money investors. An ETF could be the catalyst that starts the next ride up to like $100k over the next year or two.

It will be basically another derrivative market. I mean we do not need ETF's to actually buy the promise of a long or short for the price of bitcoin. We need people to actually buy the coins itself, not bet on the outcome. Will this affect the price of bitcoin in a good way? Yes for sure it will have a great affect. Is this good for bitcoin? No it is not, it has the potential to take bitcoin really high but also bring it way down as well.

except that there are REAL bitcoins backing them up, so they aren't paper bitcoins, they're real bitcoins being held by the institution providing the ETF, not simply just betting on the future price of bitcoin which is what futures are. ETF will take up actual Bitcoin supply, something that futures don't do. And that is how the price goes up.

So yeah its an entirely different animal than futures. Not only is it buying into bitcoin (as opposed to going short which is what most people who had interest in futures wanted them for), but its buying actual real bitcoin which is held by the ETF instead of by the clients. Futures is to sell bets on what the price will be. Nothing to do with actual investing and actual taking up supply.

that wasn't to say ETFs are debt notes per se (ETNs are), but that they are paper substitutes for real BTC.

in both cases, you're trading a security/contract that is "backed" and you're trusting counterparties to be honest (i.e. your contracts are backed by actual value and you will be paid when you try to withdraw).

an ETF is different in that there is technically no "credit risk" beyond the issuer playing games with its assets (WEX and the chinese exchanges come to mind). but then you've got custody/insurance risk and closure risk (and in case of disaster, you will not be paid the underlying but liquidated to cash and probably tied up for many months if not years). beyond that, similar risk can also manifest as disparity from the underlying index. here's one example:


ETFs can face disastrous liquidity problems during high volatility and especially during downturns. and during these times, "backing" means fuck all, especially when your account is being liquidated.

but the larger point is about delivery. ETFs only ever liquidate to cash, it doesn't matter what's underlying. if anything bad happens, ever, you will get USD cash (at best), and not necessarily in the amount that is equivalent to the underlying value. (and while you're waiting to be paid over years perhaps, maybe another BTC bubble occurs)

when the true BTC liquidity crisis occurs and price is skyrocketing in the millions of USD, you don't want to be exposed to an ETF. you won't necessarily be able to sell anywhere near spot prices and you may get caught in market halts and liquidations while the rest of the BTC market chugs along.

Completely depends on the individual proposal. This SolidX one is backed by real coins. The KNCminer ETN is voluntarily backed by real ones.

No doubt in future there will be paper ones, presumably based off futures. But for now if people buy into this one then SolidX has to have the bitcoins to match it.