ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price? - page 3.

gentlemand

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Quote from: exstasie on July 20, 2018, 05:36:50 PM

An ETF doesn't create demand. It just allows exposure to the market in a regulated venue, like futures. The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash. Kiss

It was going to blow anyway. It found the nearest excuse to do so.

Futures don't require or touch actual Bitcoin, this application is for actual Bitcoin. That is direct exposure. Futures is not.

The groups involved in this application have had failed ETF applications before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/vaneck-tries-a-third-time-for-a-bitcoin-etf.html

Having CBOE onside might make a difference but the fundamental reasons for the SEC turning them down are little improved since their last attempts.

LeGaulois

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While most people are saying the Bitcoin price will increase up to the $40,000. I am joining extasie opinion and asking at the same time:
If the decision is negative what do you think will happen to the price? A big slap like it got previously already! Bitcoin could below the $,5000

EcoChavCrypto

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i am only expecting to see it going up by a little, nothing more than that. i would be more than satisfied if bitcoin ever touches $10000 before the end of the year

1Referee

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Quote from: exstasie on July 20, 2018, 05:36:50 PM

The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash. Kiss

It is bullish in the way that Bitcoin gained more legitimacy, not in the way that it would increase the price. It were most of the noobs who thought it was a tool for capital to flow in this market, but the reality is that there won't be anything flowing in this market at all. Bitcoin futures are an empty product, nothing more nothing less.

Quote from: exstasie on July 20, 2018, 05:36:50 PM

At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

Dig up the charts of the Gold backed ETF that went live in 2003. It's definitely more fruitful than the copper chart you're displaying. Wink

adam1230

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If SEC approves it we will see new all time high levels and before the date of approval we will see some new all time low levels too.
Speculations and manipulations will come around. I hope FOMO will enter the game before it.

Rapidgator

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Quote from: 1Referee on July 20, 2018, 06:27:18 AM

Quote from: exstasie on July 19, 2018, 03:50:45 PM

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

Bitcoin futures are too much of a gambling-like instrument. At the end of the contract date you either win or lose, which isn't something very suitable for long term oriented investors. An ETF is far more flexible and can be held for the long term just like how you are holding your Bitcoins, but then ETF holders don't actually have any Bitcoins, just the long term exposure.

Here is good time to say about trading fees and position fees on contracts. And yes, we know that there will be some sort of fees on BTC ETF (if an ETF will be approved for sure) but they will be lower than on contracts - more sense in long-term investing here.

r32godzilla

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If ETF gets approved,definitely it will have a positive impact on bitcoin price.T here is a doubt that whether the ETF approval would be on August or not.But if it gets approved,then atleast hundreds of millions would be injected in to bitcoin.There would be a considerable decrease in bitcoin supply when compared to its demand.This would induce the price more.

exstasie

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An ETF doesn't create demand. It just allows exposure to the market in a regulated venue, like futures. The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash. Kiss

More importantly, the extremely low volume on CBOE/CME futures suggests there isn't much traditional/institutional interest (yet). Institutions have access, and so does anyone with an Etrade or similar brokerage account. The launch of a listed market simply doesn't create demand.

Fundamentally, markets move in rips and runs due to global supply and demand imbalances. You can't have a post-bubble crash and immediately expect another bubble just because an ETF gets launched. Here's a case in point. At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

Anonylz

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If it really happens, i think that bitcoin will easily be touching more than 8 thousand dollars if we are lucky, a little bit more than that and we might be on a bullish season again

thecodebear

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If an ETF brought in hundreds of billions it would raise the price of Bitcoin wayyyy higher than $40k. The market cap goes up by a lot more than the amount of money coming in.

I hope the ETF is finally approved. If it is I think that would be the signal we are definitely at the start of the next bull market and should see new ATHs next year. I'm guessing an ETF approval would see an initial BTC price of $1000+ or so just from the news. But the actual incoming flow of new money from ETFs would probably take place over months or years, but it would definitely be a factor in how high the next bull run goes over the next couple of years. I think the biggest immediate thing it would do is really kick off the bull run and convince the market that the bear market is over.

puremage111

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Quote from: Lucius on July 18, 2018, 04:55:31 AM

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Quote

Let me describe how “easy” it is. Once the Securities and Exchange Commission allows Bitcoin ETFs, anyone with a 401K, IRA, or an investment account, like with the following top five broker-dealers, could invest in Bitcoin with a simple click — no wire transfer or credit card fees, no explaining Coinbase, other crypto exchanges, and security hurdles.

https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Its hard to say but i firmly agree that an ETF approval gotta just massively push Btc price upwards, at least a 2x of current and result a $15,000 Bitcoin minimum. Judging based on the existing trader + upcoming institution players if the CBOE ETF really got approve tho

21M of Btc with portion of it which is loss are just not enough for the players in the market
Kinda positive on this

European Central Bank

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https://theicojournal.com/source-bitcoin-etf-nearly-certain-to-win-approval-later-this-year/

according to 'back channel' sources it's looking like a strong possibility. i wouldn't go betting everything on it. these places must have hundreds of employees and most won't have the slightest clue about what their bosses want to see when they make decisions this big.

Digital_Lord

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I do not care if it gets approved or not. The important news bit here is that it is being tried relentlessly by those people who wants millionaires in this space. If we can get people who are millionaires and billionaires into crypto space they will not buy 1 bitcoin, they will try to buy as many as they want which
probably be like at least %1 of their portfolio. That can be billions of dollars poured into this. Even if it gets disapproved in the end it will be tried again and again until it succeeds and one day we will have a huge spike the likes we have never seen before.

1Referee

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Quote from: exstasie on July 19, 2018, 03:50:45 PM

Something of note: an ETF does not provide access to bitcoin. The trustee controls the fund and issues shares. No spot BTC will be bought.

It may not provide direct access to Bitcoin, but every ETF share bought means that in the background x number of Bitcoins are being taken out of circulation. If the reserve runs out of coins, coins will need to be bought up and be put in the reserve to allow the next ETF shares to be fully backed. Whether it happens directly or indirectly, the only thing that matters is that coins will be taken out of circulation.

Quote from: exstasie on July 19, 2018, 03:50:45 PM

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

Bitcoin futures are too much of a gambling-like instrument. At the end of the contract date you either win or lose, which isn't something very suitable for long term oriented investors. An ETF is far more flexible and can be held for the long term just like how you are holding your Bitcoins, but then ETF holders don't actually have any Bitcoins, just the long term exposure.

carlisle1

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Quote from: cellard on July 18, 2018, 02:56:06 PM

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

If this is the case,i guess were too far from reality since this is the biggest event that more members expect to bring people to recovering from the half year losses.is this how huge to be part of etf?25 bitcoin each?damn big amount

I cant give prediction with this as this was the first time i heard about the investments capital

BTCLovingDude

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BTC to the moon is inevitable...

to be honest i don't really think that ETF on its own can do anything to bitcoin price apart from a small and slow increase in adoption so the small increase of in-flow of money and as a result a slow and small increase in price.

but in reality ETF is such a hyped up event which can act as an ignition to the marke so that it can shoot the price up. in this case we can even see $10k be broken in less than a month or two.

dewildance

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There is an expectation that the ETF will be approved. But this is not certain. Be careful and take your position.

Rapidgator

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Quote from: cellard on July 18, 2018, 02:56:06 PM

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

Okay, I can agree that average Joe won't have an option to invest into that type of ETF but.. what might be interesting is how this can change cryptocurrencies in case of an asset class, so then average people would enter the market through their fiat money into regular crypto exchanges and than crypto space.

Lucius

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Quote from: cellard on July 19, 2018, 01:33:50 PM

So basically, have $185k at current prices ready to invest if you want to get in this ETF.
I don't expect anyone worth less than a million USD to get involved, that's 36 million people out there.

Also no availability until next year.

Given the amount of money holding by mentioned broker-dealers ( Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Edward Jones, Ameriprise Financial, TD Ameritrade ) we talk about 10+ trillion $ which in case of ETF approval can easily enter in the crypto market. It makes sense that minumum investment is "only" 25 BTC.

Quote from: Slow death on July 19, 2018, 03:01:36 PM

In my humble opinion and having seen how it was in the past, I would say they have some chance, but I do not have great expectations of them being accepted. regulators seem to always make difficult when it comes to bitcoin

SEC is especially cautious when it comes to such decisions, in case of some problems, they are responsible. BTC is still have many problems these days, so they must be 100% sure everything will work in the best way.

Quote from: exstasie on July 19, 2018, 03:50:45 PM

Quote from: Lucius on July 18, 2018, 04:55:31 AM

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

You have a source for that?

Source of that speculation is in article I posted in OP.

Quote

If ETFs add 24 million US investors and the upward momentum adds 14 million from the rest of the world, then that adds $84 billion and $336 billion, respectively, to the market cap. Over the past six months, Bitcoin’s market cap has swung from $326 to $110 billion.

BitcoinHodler

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HODLing is an art, not just a word...

i still think ETF is not going to be approved and based on lack of reaction in the market to this news i think i am not alone in this.

but in case that ETF was approved this time based on things that OP has listed here and the changes that has actually happened in the past year ever since last ETF rejection, we may see a big rally start up. and in that case we can see at least $10k+ before 30 days go by.

Topic: ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price? - page 3. (Read 594 times)