Ethereum IPO reboot coming, time to get nervous about the future of crypto - page 2.

biggus dickus

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Quote from: toknormal on August 03, 2014, 07:12:27 AM

Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 07:56:07 AM

That's why I, with my head, not my heart, am going balls deep on this

Out of interest, what is "balls deep" for you ?

Less that 1 BTC ?
1-10 BTC ?
10's f BTCs ?
100's of BTC's ?

Or, if you like you can express it as percentage of holding.

The thing is, I, like you, have followed the Etherium concept and believe it to be very promising, so I'm throwing a couple of BTC at it to have a "horse in the race". However, I don't beleive in going "balls deep" because:

[1] - the price could plummet as soon as it goes on the market, there is so much speculation involved and so much Ether about with nowhere near the utility value to justify it yet

[2] - if the price doesn't plummet and rises, at least we'll be along for the ride in some capacity

You can't safely go "balls deep" in anything until it's been trading for a while and you can confidently anticipate revaluations based on BOTH fundamentals and trading history. So the optimal approach is, stick a small amount in now as insurance, then trade it confidently once it's launched.

That way you won't miss any boats and you also won't loose your shirt.

However much it is, it sounds like he has put all his eggs in one basket, which is a big gamble to take.

toknormal

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Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 07:56:07 AM

That's why I, with my head, not my heart, am going balls deep on this

Out of interest, what is "balls deep" for you ?

Less that 1 BTC ?
1-10 BTC ?
10's f BTCs ?
100's of BTC's ?

Or, if you like you can express it as percentage of holding.

The thing is, I, like you, have followed the Etherium concept and believe it to be very promising, so I'm throwing a couple of BTC at it to have a "horse in the race". However, I don't beleive in going "balls deep" because:

[1] - the price could plummet as soon as it goes on the market, there is so much speculation involved and so much Ether about with nowhere near the utility value to justify it yet

[2] - if the price doesn't plummet and rises, at least we'll be along for the ride in some capacity

You can't safely go "balls deep" in anything until it's been trading for a while and you can confidently anticipate revaluations based on BOTH fundamentals and trading history. So the optimal approach is, stick a small amount in now as insurance, then trade it confidently once it's launched.

That way you won't miss any boats and you also won't loose your shirt.

Nxtblg

legendary

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Quote from: bitjoint on August 01, 2014, 10:38:34 AM

It reminds me of bitcoin in 2012, and how everybody was telling me "you're nuts for putting money in this nerd circus"...

Yeah...plus the fudsters doing their gleeful dance after BTC touched $2 at the opening of '12. It's so much like gold in that way: if you buy in at the point of maximum fud during a solidly established bull trend, you make out damned well. The only trouble with this approach is that you become habituated to seeing fudsters as nothing more than wrong-way-Corrigan klutzes, which means you'll likely go down with the bagholders when the real blow-off bubble is followed by the real carnage. "The stopped clock is still right twice a day."

But for Bitcoin, the above is only long-term bull-session talk. I don't expect a real all-out BTC bubble to blow up, implode and visit carnage all over the land until the close of this decade. Not until then: it's still way too early. Right now, MSM coverage of Bitcoin is well laced with fud. I won't get really worried until MSM - real MSM - coverage is all hypey. With the implication that "Bitcoin Has Arrived!!!"

Keeping with the indirectly-related-to-Etherium theme, I just saw a Maidsafe chart. It was strikingly like Facebook's after FB's IPO. Downturn making IPOers feel like bagholders, followed by an upturn that rewarded the IPO investors who HODLed through. I have a hintie-hunch that ethers will play the same overture.

(Damn, I wished I had bought FB when it was $25...)

visual111

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I'm on the sidelines for this one. Coins like NXT seem to be a much safer bet right now...they've been live since december/january

Nullu

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Quote from: bitjoint on August 01, 2014, 10:08:07 AM

Quote from: Nullu on August 01, 2014, 06:19:51 AM

It's all hype. Where are the businesses coming out to back Etherium? It all sounds good on paper, but that's it. Big promises, and little evidence. Which makes it any different to any other IPO how, exactly?

Well, it looks like Peter Thiel fancies the idea... That is an uber-hint that only blind people fail to see.

If you don't like it, clone it and run your crowdfunding campaign. If it is *that* easy, what are you waiting for? You could launch your dogethereum and we can all laught at it... Grin

I neither said it was easy, and nor did I express any desire to launch my own fork of Ether. Save your confidence for when the IPO ends and Ether is fully up and running.

Istanbul34

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I don't trust Ethereum.

+ All of the features they are promising are already out in the market right now. I don't know why the world needs Ethereum. Neeextt.

bitjoint

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Commander of the Hodl Legions

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 01, 2014, 10:20:18 AM

Anyone that invested in this is going to have a long time to be nervous about it as it seems the IPO is extended for a long time until people will see good results. Im still deciding about investing at least 0.1 or so just in case I can get some BTC off it, but as long as long term goes im not sure.

I've invested some btc's and I'm chilled as f*ck. In my mind I've given them away to a promising project because I want to see a team pushing the boundaries of crypto development. If I lose them, I'm perfectly fine... because I can afford to lose that money. If you can't, or don't believe in the project, then it is better to stay away...

It reminds me of bitcoin in 2012, and how everybody was telling me "you're nuts for putting money in this nerd circus"...

giveBTCpls

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Anyone that invested in this is going to have a long time to be nervous about it as it seems the IPO is extended for a long time until people will see good results. Im still deciding about investing at least 0.1 or so just in case I can get some BTC off it, but as long as long term goes im not sure.

bitjoint

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Commander of the Hodl Legions

Quote from: Nullu on August 01, 2014, 06:19:51 AM

It's all hype. Where are the businesses coming out to back Etherium? It all sounds good on paper, but that's it. Big promises, and little evidence. Which makes it any different to any other IPO how, exactly?

Well, it looks like Peter Thiel fancies the idea... That is an uber-hint that only blind people fail to see.

If you don't like it, clone it and run your crowdfunding campaign. If it is *that* easy, what are you waiting for? You could launch your dogethereum and we can all laught at it... Grin

marcelus

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Quote from: Nullu on August 01, 2014, 06:40:51 AM

I'm not saying these are unique concepts, which is precisely why I suggest people invest with their heads and not their hearts. Ask the tough questions before risking everything for potentially nothing.

One of the few bits of sense I've seen on this thread.

I am investing with my head. I've been going to Ethereum meetups in London for months. I've seen the test net in action. It looks more like OSX than the basic clients that exist for the various protocols now. It's going to add a useability that allows non-technical people to use it. I've also seen what the various people in the team have achieved in the past. They've assembled talent that surpasses any other team out there. But first and foremost, he concept the goal, is miles ahead of anything else. That's why I, with my head, not my heart, am going balls deep on this.

The people shouting scam are basing their accusations on frivolous claims and are quite likely trolling as the they have interests in competing protocols.

ACAB

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Biggest scam in 2014.

thecast

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Too riski of a investment imo

Nullu

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Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 06:23:22 AM

Quote from: Nullu on August 01, 2014, 06:19:51 AM

Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 04:42:59 AM

Quote from: Nullu on July 31, 2014, 02:25:41 PM

To value a start-up company at over 5 million USD? I shouldn't even have to answer that question. So a company that isn't making any money is now worth over 5 million. How long, if at all, do you think it will take for your stake to be worth anything? For it to double, the company, once it goes live, would have to make 5 million on top of that, and that's assuming 100% of their earnings will go into the value of Ether, which it certainly won't.

Just think about it and you'll see how overly-inflated the evaluation is.

When you consider its potential, $5m is pennies. A tiny figure. $5m is nothing these days anyway. We're talking about a global platform here. Banks do billions worth of business on a daily basis. If you're building something that requires a huge amount of talent and time, millions are required. Simple as that.

I'm sorry, but potential doesn't put food on the table. Every altcoin ever developed ever had "potential". Banks do billions, yet if nobody knows about, or uses Etherium, that's what it'll be worth in the end. Pennies.

It's all hype. Where are the businesses coming out to back Etherium? It all sounds good on paper, but that's it. Big promises, and little evidence. Which makes it any different to any other IPO how, exactly?

Every idea in its infancy is just hype. Every business idea is just a promise. This phenomenon is not unique to crypto! To build anything costs money. That's why capital is raised. That's why investors exist. It's not any different to any other IPO. Nor should it be. There's absolutely nothing wrong with raising capital to build something that could make a difference to the world. How is this so hard to grasp?

I'm not saying these are unique concepts, which is precisely why I suggest people invest with their heads and not their hearts. Ask the tough questions before risking everything for potentially nothing.

marcelus

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Quote from: Nullu on August 01, 2014, 06:19:51 AM

Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 04:42:59 AM

Quote from: Nullu on July 31, 2014, 02:25:41 PM

To value a start-up company at over 5 million USD? I shouldn't even have to answer that question. So a company that isn't making any money is now worth over 5 million. How long, if at all, do you think it will take for your stake to be worth anything? For it to double, the company, once it goes live, would have to make 5 million on top of that, and that's assuming 100% of their earnings will go into the value of Ether, which it certainly won't.

Just think about it and you'll see how overly-inflated the evaluation is.

When you consider its potential, $5m is pennies. A tiny figure. $5m is nothing these days anyway. We're talking about a global platform here. Banks do billions worth of business on a daily basis. If you're building something that requires a huge amount of talent and time, millions are required. Simple as that.

I'm sorry, but potential doesn't put food on the table. Every altcoin ever developed ever had "potential". Banks do billions, yet if nobody knows about, or uses Etherium, that's what it'll be worth in the end. Pennies.

It's all hype. Where are the businesses coming out to back Etherium? It all sounds good on paper, but that's it. Big promises, and little evidence. Which makes it any different to any other IPO how, exactly?

Every idea in its infancy is just hype. Every business idea is just a promise. This phenomenon is not unique to crypto! To build anything costs money. That's why capital is raised. That's why investors exist. It's not any different to any other IPO. Nor should it be. There's absolutely nothing wrong with raising capital to build something that could make a difference to the world. How is this so hard to grasp?

Nullu

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Activity: 532

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Quote from: marcelus on August 01, 2014, 04:42:59 AM

Quote from: Nullu on July 31, 2014, 02:25:41 PM

To value a start-up company at over 5 million USD? I shouldn't even have to answer that question. So a company that isn't making any money is now worth over 5 million. How long, if at all, do you think it will take for your stake to be worth anything? For it to double, the company, once it goes live, would have to make 5 million on top of that, and that's assuming 100% of their earnings will go into the value of Ether, which it certainly won't.

Just think about it and you'll see how overly-inflated the evaluation is.

When you consider its potential, $5m is pennies. A tiny figure. $5m is nothing these days anyway. We're talking about a global platform here. Banks do billions worth of business on a daily basis. If you're building something that requires a huge amount of talent and time, millions are required. Simple as that.

I'm sorry, but potential doesn't put food on the table. Every altcoin ever developed ever had "potential". Banks do billions, yet if nobody knows about, or uses Etherium, that's what it'll be worth in the end. Pennies.

It's all hype. Where are the businesses coming out to back Etherium? It all sounds good on paper, but that's it. Big promises, and little evidence. Which makes it any different to any other IPO how, exactly?

EvilDave

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@ Marcelus: chill yr boots, mate.
I have a personal distrust of the current financial system, and I'm not amazingly happy to see yet another hyped up IPO, but I'm not condemning Ethereum.
It is a good idea, but from my point of view not such a quantum leap forward, seeing as NXT has been opening up the second generation crypto-currency feature set for several months now. However, Eth will be able to offer a complete scripting language, which will be a useful addition to NXTs modular approach.
So: good idea, yes, mindblowing, not really.

And again from my experience with NXT: if Eth is truly open-source, it will get cloned. Mercilessly and immediately, so you should be prepared for that. Hopefully, as with NXT, the momentum will remain with Eth itself, and not be siphoned off by cloners.

marcelus

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Quote from: EvilDave on August 01, 2014, 05:17:11 AM

"Open source" or "planning to be open source" ?
Seems to be some confusion, anyone with a definitive answer?

Open source will mean that Eth will get cloned inside 2 seconds of release, which may not sit well with the guys who ponied up $5 million so far, but is a lot more in line with the ideals (such as they are) of the crypto scene.

Open source. Yes it may be cloned. The Ethereum guys mention this in their lengthy message to all would-be buyers. The lay all their cards on the table. People are free to choose whether to invest or not. Wherein lies the problem with this? Can I not like this project and invest in it without having to listen to a whole lot of nonsense based on nothing but conjecture here? I believe that a fork probably won't be successful because of the talent behind Ethereum and its branding/mindshare. Of course we could end up with another Mastercoin/Counterparty situation. Anything is a possibility. That's why investments are always risks. I wish to take a risk on this because it's the first big leap since bitcoin itself. What it could be is mind-blowing.

EvilDave

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"Open source" or "planning to be open source" ?
Seems to be some confusion, anyone with a definitive answer?

Open source will mean that Eth will get cloned inside 2 seconds of release, which may not sit well with the guys who ponied up $5 million so far, but is a lot more in line with the ideals (such as they are) of the crypto scene.

Mercator

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Well said, Marcelus.

As long as the people who are buying Ethers are doing so in a spirit of assisting in the launch of what can be a truly revolutionary idea and not just speculating on the price, then that is sufficient justification for the effort.

The advent of BTC makes it easy for funds to flow quickly and in an unimpeded way from many individuals to a common entity.

The $6m or so is really very small in this context compared with what the Ethereum team are setting out to achieve.

Do not forget that they plan to open-source their code so that the crypto-community worldwide will stand to benefit from their work.

marcelus

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Quote from: Nullu on July 31, 2014, 02:25:41 PM

To value a start-up company at over 5 million USD? I shouldn't even have to answer that question. So a company that isn't making any money is now worth over 5 million. How long, if at all, do you think it will take for your stake to be worth anything? For it to double, the company, once it goes live, would have to make 5 million on top of that, and that's assuming 100% of their earnings will go into the value of Ether, which it certainly won't.

Just think about it and you'll see how overly-inflated the evaluation is.

When you consider its potential, $5m is pennies. A tiny figure. $5m is nothing these days anyway. We're talking about a global platform here. Banks do billions worth of business on a daily basis. If you're building something that requires a huge amount of talent and time, millions are required. Simple as that.

Topic: Ethereum IPO reboot coming, time to get nervous about the future of crypto - page 2. (Read 11856 times)