Topic: EU and Greece talks fail! another cyprus moment looms! (Read 3318 times)

Greek Drachma existed since around 1000BC... They don't need to find anything new.

Well this topic is not releated with Turkey's EU membership, but we may argue that.
Turkey isn't "laic" right?
What's laicism? "French secularity (French: laïcité, pronounced [laisite]) is the absence of religious involvement in government affairs as well as absence of government involvement in religious affairs" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La%C3%AFcit%C3%A9

Turkish constitution clearly says that Turkey is laic.

On the other hand, let's check England which is an EU member.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_religion

Wait what? England has an official religion, Are their constitution laic? nope...

It's not about whether a state is laic or not. It's about politics.

Even if Turkey can offer jobs,money ,,, Turkey won't be accepted by the EU as i think , because they aren't laic . And they need to be open mined and other many things that required to joiin EU .

Turkey has been waited for 50 years to be a member of EU but they didn't accept us. But now EU in economical crysis and Turkey's Prime Minister is calling all EU citizens; "We can give you jobs".

Despite EU didn't want us to join; Turkey is ready to help EU.

Also;
Cyprus? Greece? OMG!
Embrace yourselves; Turks are coming

...

Greece cannot and will not pay back its debt to the rest of Europe.  "What cannot be paid back, WILL NOT be paid back."

My *guess* is that the can just will keep on getting kicked down the road until it can no longer.  Once that no longer works, I am not sure that it really does not make much difference exactly which road Greece then chooses: default, "Grexit", more debt, etc.  Whatever should happen then, it will likely be bad...

Unless they cosy-up to Russia and/or China.  <--- THAT would have real-world repercussions, and would make the Black Swans more likely to drop by...  But, Russia does not seem to have much extra money to spend (and on Greece?).  Or would China even want a base in Europe that they have to pay for?

I don't think they are going to settle their accounts with the donor countries, ever. They could just flat-out refuse to pay them, since they would have nothing to lose. Remember Argentina?

Though the EU may just write off the debt effectively preventing such extremes.

Don't be too sure about Europe getting tired of feeding a dying chicken. Europe and the IMF seem to have unlimited supplies of loans for the Ukraine. That country is a complete lost cause, with civil war and Nazi death squads everywhere. Europe is still happy to loan them money?

I have many friends in Greece and we have discussed this in detail.

The average person have zero disposable cash to store in any investment or commodity these days... for most of them, it is a day to day survival mode.

Unemployment has increased and the tourist market has nearly collapsed, due to the increase of the crime rate, related to the increase in the unemployment.

Some areas are safe, but more urban areas has become a problem, where it has not been the case before.

You cannot invest/store money you do not have... it's as simple as that... you cannot easily emigrate without money.. so you stuck in a country, where the value of your money decrease by the day.

It's only the wealthy people with disposable money, who might benefit from protecting their money in a currency like BTC. {At this stage, even that is a gamble, but a better short term solution than what they have now}

They also complain that they do not have enough merchants to accept BTC as a payment option, so using BTC to pay for your day to day groceries are not a option now.  

It's the poor and middle class that is suffering the most.      

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_23/02/2015_547567

They still need a detailed report approved before the bailout.  Alarming there is zero talk of job creation for the 50% unemployed under 30 years of age.  Typical leftist thoughts of tax the rich and go after those who evade taxes.

How about stream lining the process of opening a business in Greece or provide incentives for new businesses/hiring of unemployed?

Money is getting pullet out of Greece thats for sure, but its just a matter of time when that will stop, and the pumping that they get from EU will come to an end, they're not as dumb as they look to keep feeding the dying chicken. Greece showed with their last elections that they cant handle responsability for their actions and spendings, and its time to cut them off and let them handle their fiasco themselves.

cheers

I've met them, I've talked to a few them, and they don't understand much about economy. Amazingly, my last time with people with so much misunderstanding was in Germany. It's always the same story, it's about people who can't support themselves, and who expect the state to pay for their living. Spain is getting better, to my great surprise, I've met a Brit and a French who moved to Spain to work! There are opportunities everywhere...

What is amazing is that there is a river of money flowing out of Greek banks even now as we speak, and those banks would already be shutdown without the use of emergency liquidity funding from Europe.

This is insane from Europe's point of view: It gives Greece extra leverage in the game of chicken they are both playing. It''s just more money Greece will default on without a resolution on their terms.

Two reasons: Debts and austerity measures. As mentioned before, it depends on how well Greece would fare after a default & Grexit. I personally believe they would do fine after a short bit of pain, especially because Russia and/or China will take the opportunity to make such a strategically important friend in Europe.

I definitely don't buy the doom about a famine, those have even become rare in Africa. The international community won't let Greeks die of hunger en masse.


Have you seen the unemployment ratings in those countries, especially among the younger generations? Have you seen Podemos in the polls? There is a very big chance of a domino effect.

Talk is cheap. Hype is cheap.

I don't see a reason for Spain, Portugal or Italy to do the same as Greece. If they're gonna do something so radical.

So you are certain that the only way for Greece to get back on its feet is such a drastical move?

My prediction is sometime before 28 February both sides will... kick the can down the road and agree to continue talking with a new deadline.  When that deadline looms they'll agree on a new deadline.

Germany and France can't let Greece go.  If they do then Portugal and Spain will come knocking asking for a better deal, and Ireland will be keen to follow with Italy looking on intently. 

Greece will not quit the Euro by 28 February.

There will be no domino, only Greece is in real danger, spain and portugal are OK for sure.

This is one of the main unknowns and represents the two sides of the argument. Some, think the hardliners who wont budge for Greece, think that Eu exposure to the Greek debts isn't that bad and can be handled in an orderly way. In this case the EU lives on minus Greece. The other side says that a Greek exit destroys the EU., ie a grexit means the EU its no longer a union just a currency peg. And of course why should the peoples of Spain, Portugal, Italy and France be weighed down by cuts to spending, massive unemployment etc when they can vote in a party that exits the Euro / renegotiates the conditions. Lots of issues in an interconnected financial world arise from multiple countries reneging on their debt repayments


Greece joined the EU by fudging its deficit % with the help of Goldman. The EU rules were no more than 3%. The EU currency peg pits powerhouse economies like germany against weak economies like Greece. When the greek economy goes into the toilet like it has for many reasons (inflated public sector, low tax revenues, asset writedowns, global slowdown) they cannot devalue their currency to make their exports competitive. All the holders of greek debt took a haircut a few years back but the austerity has done nothing to improve the situation. I have a feeling even unsecured bond holders (most risky investment) were paid out in full from bailout money when they should have lost their money.

Syriza wants to renegotiate the bailout conditions, not leave the Euro, but are keeping the option of leaving on the table as it will be worse for the EU if they pack up and grexit. Imagine the stock markets if it occurs, it will be pandemonium. I dont think it will happen.

The governments can't betray their voters by getting buttfucked by the troika. They either betray their voters and get off the euro, or stay in the euro under merkel's dictatorship generating more and more protests.

It's a fucked up situation no matter what.