China do have lots of oil too though, seems like your version of events is just a China win regardless.
It would makes sense, I think. The Chinese government is rather in a comfortable position when comes to energy, they have some energy reserves, but also have Russia as ally which guarantee China a good supply of fuels in the long term, specially now that Russia needs to sell their energy to anyone they can. On the other hand, China also has much potential to move onto green energy if they wanted to, they have rare earths and they are already getting into the market of electrical vehicles.
But it is most plausible they stick to regular fuels in the long term, unlike Europe.
This is one reason why China isn't only mad about the war I suppose. They don't want a nuclear war, that is for sure, but if this war weakens other countries and even Russia, that helps China to get into an even better position for negotiations. The more isolated Russia gets in the global economy, the cheaper can China get energy from Russia. The incentives all those different countries have are so complex especially in situations of war that it sometimes is hard to understand who wants what the most. In this case though I think China is already planning with sufficient resources from Russia.
Yes, but with a few caveats.
1. Yes, China, "thanks" to the fact that Russia "shot itself in the foot", showing the whole world its fakeness in everything (from the economy to the quality of weapons and the army), let China into the bipolar world. And China no longer mentions Russia when it talks about a bipolar world. In his vision - in such a world there are 2 superstates - the USA and China, and the rest - should listen to them.
2. On the other hand, the total loss of Russia, for China, carries reputational and situational risks. China is very unhappy that Russia, with its terrorist attack on Ukraine, rallied the WEST, actually resurrected NATO, and restarted the military industry of the West.
That is why China now needs to weaken the forces of Russia as much as possible. Although Russia is an appendage of China, it can still provide some danger to China. Therefore, China comes forward with its "peace initiative", and they will offer to create support for Ukraine, sit down at the negotiating table, negotiate, and, well, obey China. Otherwise - the collapse, the total collapse of Russia - is very close. And then China will lose both the "guinea pig", and the "raw material appendage", and the puppet through which China can influence the international arena