Everything you wanted to know about Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. - page 3.

Ambatman

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 397

Playbet.io - Crypto Casino and Sportsbook

Quote from: fillippone on December 13, 2024, 12:57:33 PM

At this point, the pool on Polymarket seems lagging to me:

This should be higher compared to OP.

Not quite much.
Trump has barely mentioned anything about a BSR for quite sometime now.
The poll was in a bigger favour when he was campaigning
Once he mentions anything positive about the BSR even before his inauguration then there would be a sharper increase.
It's mentioned in 100 days, so Trump silence has an impact in it more than if it were based on his tenure.

The numbered 6 Opinion and thoughts is written as Opinions and Though.

A great Compilation, Just realised my knowledge of the BSR was quite shallow.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Everywhere I turn, I see new signs of a BSR:

Bessent meeting Senator Lummis is an extremely bullish signal on the case of a BSR.

At this point, the pool on Polymarket seems lagging to me:

This should be higher compared to OP.

SamReomo

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 672

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: fillippone on December 12, 2024, 01:33:15 PM

Maybe they could push the Miners to pay their State level Taxes in BTC?

Something like that is possible, but if I'm not wrong then they're trying to target the miners to pay their mining operation taxes in Bitcoin initially.

They won't be forcing them of course but I believe miners won't hesitate either to pay taxes in Bitcoin.

Some of them who really prefer to hold Bitcoin may pay taxes in US dollars while there's chance that some of the miners would prefer to pay the taxes with Bitcoin.

It would also be quite useful if they miners may pay their State level Taxes in Bitcoin as that would be pretty helpful for that SBR.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Letest proposal by an US nation:

Texas House introduces bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve

Quote

The proposed bill would enable the state to start building a strategic bitcoin reserve by accepting taxes, fees and donations in bitcoin that would be held for a minimum of five years, Republican state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione announced on an X Spaces event Thursday.

It looks pretty vague to me, and I can't see how this bill could Help Texas to build a meaningful SBR.
Maybe they could push the Miners to pay their State level Taxes in BTC?

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 11, 2024, 04:18:38 PM

Likely one of the criticisms of recent governing dynamics has been a lot of their inabilities to plan for long-term down the road and/or to follow through with such planning in fiscally disciplined ways.

Surely many folks have come to question the governments ability to employ self-disciplined and financially sound practices (including limiting themselves to spending within their means) - which is ongoingly abused by so many governments, and perhaps the ones that are disciplined and strive to spend within their means are punished for being responsible.

Well, bitcoin can act as a counterweight for that.
For sure, the States might have the incentive to print more money out of thin air, buy Bitcoin, print more, and buy more Bitcoin. The effect would be a dilution of their debt, bitcoin going up, a little bit of wealth effect for the Government, the elites, while the masses are inflated away.
The point is that this trajectory is inevitable. The fact is how much the Nation State want to rig this game.

Obim34

sr. member

Activity: 224

Merit: 195

Quote from: fillippone on December 09, 2024, 05:49:56 PM

El Salvador: In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender. Since then, the Government has accumulated approximately 5,940 bitcoins, valued at around $582 million as of November 2024. They perform both open market purchases (they are buying one bitcoin per day since) and mining operations.

Comparing what El Salvador has managed to accumulate from a period of 3 years till today will turn out to be approximately 3% of what the US government are applicable to gather in a whole year then multiply in four years. This will turn out to be the biggest Bitcoin purchase to be recorded, but i tend to find question concerning how much of an impact it will do on the price of Bitcoin following how and on what process will the relatively 200,000 Bitcoin be bought without altering the four year cycle, for such a big buy to happen in a year period then for another 3 consecutive years, totalled to four years in total?

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 11299

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: fillippone on December 11, 2024, 02:46:54 PM

Quote from: davis196 on December 10, 2024, 06:13:31 AM

The US government HODLing Bitcoin for 20 years? What would the cryptocurrency world look like in 2045?

Honestly speaking, if I had to think about an asset that I would be happy to put in a box for 20 years only to be sold not earlier than that date, I would go for Bitcoin.
I have no certainty about the state of crypto in 20 years, but I am sure that Bitcoin will be there at a nominal price above today's (not so sure about every shitcoin).

Likely one of the criticisms of recent governing dynamics has been a lot of their inabilities to plan for long-term down the road and/or to follow through with such planning in fiscally disciplined ways.

Surely many folks have come to question the governments ability to employ self-disciplined and financially sound practices (including limiting themselves to spending within their means) - which is ongoingly abused by so many governments, and perhaps the ones that are disciplined and strive to spend within their means are punished for being responsible.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: davis196 on December 10, 2024, 06:13:31 AM

The US government HODLing Bitcoin for 20 years? What would the cryptocurrency world look like in 2045?

Honestly speaking, if I had to think about an asset that I would be happy to put in a box for 20 years only to be sold not earlier than that date, I would go for Bitcoin.
I have no certainty about the state of crypto in 20 years, but I am sure that Bitcoin will be there at a nominal price above today's (not so sure about every shitcoin).

Poker Player

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 2017

Quote from: fillippone on December 10, 2024, 06:16:07 PM

Eric Trump about US BSR

If anyone hears Eric Trump speak they will see that he understands bitcoin very well, unlike the father, or at least how little the father showed he knew until recently. It's no longer that the US president is surrounded by bitcoiners in his cabinet, his son has a deep understanding, which is very bullish. At first we could think that Trump approached bitcoiners out of pure electoral interest, and so it appeared when he went to the Bitcoin Conference but today it seems that he is going all in with the subject.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Added in OP a couple of references to the interest in creating Bitcoin Reserves:

Russian Lawmaker Proposes Creating Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Report
Eric Trump about US BSR
a presentation at the TBAC Primary use case for Bitcoin seems to be a store of
value aka “digital gold” in a decentralized finance

I will try to keep the OP updated with the most relevant news.

Quote from: JiiBs on December 10, 2024, 05:30:33 PM

Also, what are your thoughts on the fact that, government could print money out of thin air only to use it in the purchase of our precious Bitcoins. It would as well result in inflation as there would be more money in circulation than needed but, at the expense of them Bitcoins. Would it help the course that much?

This is precisely the reason why a BSR makes a lot of sense.
In a sense, they are already doing this, and if you don't realise it, you are being inflated.

JiiBs

full member

Activity: 203

Merit: 106

🌀 Cosmic Casino

This could only be the result of a properly and timely done research into the subject matter which have raised doubt and been the result of lots of contradictory opinions on the subject matter. This compilation however, clears things to a greater extent. It’s sorts to instruct and teach in its patterns to arrangement and I see you to have several threads like this one, great work and well done @Fillippone.

Looking at reserves from the point of being a critical nature resource stand point, do Bitcoin really fits in as such?

Also, what are your thoughts on the fact that, government could print money out of thin air only to use it in the purchase of our precious Bitcoins. It would as well result in inflation as there would be more money in circulation than needed but, at the expense of them Bitcoins. Would it help the course that much?

Just a key I happen to note as I read:
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR)

DrBeer

legendary

Activity: 3752

Merit: 1864

Fillippone bravo ! Another great, useful and informative article !
Something tells me that in 2025, this topic will be very relevant, and we will watch its development ! I hope for the continuation of the article, with adjustments to real events !

Poker Player

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 2017

Congratulations, fillippone, on this well-written thread, which looks more like a PhD section than a forum post. I see you fighting to reach number 1 in merit earned in the near future.

At this time a thread like this comes in handy to remind those of us who have bitcoin to keep holding or even keep buying if you think you have too little. There are people selling, as we can see by the price drop, and today Microsoft shareholders have refused to add bitcoin to their balance sheet.

Some people seem to forget or don't seem to be aware that the recent rise of bitcoin and the state FOMO that has been unleashed, reflected in point 5 of the OP, is in large part due to the upcoming creation of a state reserve in the USA. Even if we are 50% wrong those of us who are more bullish and instead of amassing a million bitcoin, USA ends up amassing half (the 200K it already has and buys another 300K), the $100K per bitcoin is going to look like a bargain, and all those who are selling now and those who are refusing to buy, like the MSFT shareholders, are going to regret it.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: Zlantann on December 10, 2024, 10:17:42 AM

I am not waiting for his first hundred days to know his stance, the content of his inaugural speech might give some clue.

The inauguration date is for sure something to look out. In case he is mentioning bitcoin for sure this would be extremely bullish, let alone him mentioning a BSR.
For sure, the inauguration speech is like a program for the first 100 days, so I would be surprised in case of him not mentioning BSR.
Conclusion: Polymarket is underrepresenting the true probability of the event.

Zlantann

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1101

Quote from: fillippone on December 09, 2024, 05:49:56 PM

How probable is the creation of an SBR?
There is a pool on Polymarket that places the probability of Trump going on with the Proposal in the first 100 days at 29%:

The probability of this measure lies in the first 100 days, and the President can leverage this as a National Security Matter. This could mean he could issue an Executive Order to immediately instate the SBR as an alternative to the standard approval path through Congress.

Polymaket is now one of the reliable prediction platform because of its near accurate predictions of the IS elections. Actors in the crypto industry see Donald Trump as a president with an unpredictable personality. There are some level of doubt if he would implement the policy of adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency. Joseph Chan the Chairman of Chinese based Silk Road Economic Development Research Centre said: "Trump is unpredictable. He may change his mind tomorrow; you never know". I am not waiting for his first hundred days to know his stance, the content of his inaugural speech might give some clue.

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: LoyceV on December 10, 2024, 08:32:01 AM

Quote from: fillippone on December 09, 2024, 05:49:56 PM

Strategic Partnership with US Miners: this would be an ingenuous way of doing so. The government could buy the Bitcoins mined in the US at an average price. This would benefit the miners with a stable price and the government limiting the market impact.

I can think of a few problems with this plan already:

If market prices go up and miners have to sell at a fixed price (under market price), other miners will get more money, buy more hardware, and increase the difficulty. That means the fixed-price miners will mine less.
If market prices drop and miners get a fixed price (above market price), other miners will drop out, after which the difficulty drops. So the fixed-price miners will mine more.

There's a reason the price is left to the market.

I do agree with your considerations.
I was actually thinking about some shorter agreement, something like a rolling 30 days average or so. Market impact wouldn't be huge, and probably would benefit the miner the most with some opportunistic behaviour, without impacting the US government buying in the grand scheme of think.
Buy fillippone just pawn in the game of life.

LoyceV

legendary

Activity: 3290

Merit: 16489

Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Quote from: fillippone on December 09, 2024, 05:49:56 PM

Strategic Partnership with US Miners: this would be an ingenuous way of doing so. The government could buy the Bitcoins mined in the US at an average price. This would benefit the miners with a stable price and the government limiting the market impact.

I can think of a few problems with this plan already:

If market prices go up and miners have to sell at a fixed price (under market price), other miners will get more money, buy more hardware, and increase the difficulty. That means the fixed-price miners will mine less.
If market prices drop and miners get a fixed price (above market price), other miners will drop out, after which the difficulty drops. So the fixed-price miners will mine more.

There's a reason the price is left to the market.

Alpha Marine

sr. member

Activity: 756

Merit: 356

It's crazy how far Bitcoin has come. Just a few years ago, most of these countries saw Bitcoin as the next biggest scam; today, they're all proposing to have a Bitcoin reserve. Even Trump, who is the most pro-Bitcoin figure today, was very much against Bitcoin in 2019. It just shows how far Bitcoin has come.

I know bitcoin as an alternative currency was Satoshi's original idea but I don't know if he thought that alternative currency would be Federal Reserve one day.
Bitcoin has a reserve in different states will mean more scarcity while the demand will increase and that will mean an increase in prices. This might make Bitcoin get to prices we haven't imagined.

It was a nice summary you made. Very easy to understand and concise.

davis196

hero member

Activity: 3192

Merit: 939

Quote

The reserve would be funded by marking the Fed’s gold certificates to market value and selling them.
The Government would use the surplus to buy Bitcoin without using Taxpayer money.
The Department of Justice would transfer the 208,000 Bitcoin from the Silkroad Case to the SBR.
The government will buy 200,000 bitcoins annually for four consecutive years.
The minimum hodling period would be of 20 years.

The US government HODLing Bitcoin for 20 years? What would the cryptocurrency world look like in 2045?
Maybe the idea of the confiscated Silk Road BTC being moved to a strategic Bitcoin reserve is good, but I don't think that the US government will suddenly start buying lots of BTC. 200,000 bitcoins bought by the US government for 4 consecutive years probably won't be achieved.
Anyway, I find it hard to believe that such legislation would happen and the BTC price would hit 500K or 1 million. The bulls on the market are maintaining the hype and the FOMO, but a price crash might be coming after several months. Trump isn't a predictable guy and he might try to change his crypto promises(or break them).

fillippone

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 17063

Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

As per popular request, I added a paragraph on the market expectations following the launch of a BSR.
Of course, it is Not Financial Advice.

If you want to see more stuff added, please let me know.
The subject is evolving, so I will try to keep the OP updated with the latest developments.

Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. - page 3. (Read 944 times)