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Topic: Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! - page 9. (Read 3941 times)

legendary
Activity: 2114
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Quote
Intercontinental Exchange Says First Block Trade of Bakkt Bitcoin Futures Executed
(MT Newswires)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said Friday that the first block trade of Bakkt Bitcoin Futures submitted to ICE Futures US was executed.

The Bakkt Bitcoin Futures block trade was executed between Galaxy Digital and XBTO on Oct. 1, which was cleared by ED&F Man.
Price: 92.59, Change: +1.24, Percent Change: +1.36

BLOCK TRADE:

Quote
A block trade is the sale or purchase of a large number of securities. A block trade involves a significantly large number of equities or bonds being traded at an arranged price between two parties. Block trades are sometimes done outside of the open markets to lessen the impact on the security price.


So basically, it's some sort of "pre-arranged" trade between two counterparties who decide not to trad this in the open market, because it would have caused price disruption due to poor liquidity. This trade so is arranged and then it goes through the market infrastructure.
legendary
Activity: 2114
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I don't understand why you said nothing about the CoT (Commitments of Traders) ? It's very important in futures markets.

There my friend.
I just added a paragraph detailing how to properly read a CoT report.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer?   Huh

Regarding Bitcoin futures the main difference is custody.
For the vast majority of future subscribers the holding of a "physical bitcoin", is simply impossible, being it too complicated from a regulatory/compliance point of view and often beyond investment mandate. This is why CME launched cash settled futures first: this product perfectly integrate in the post trading workflow of any given future investor. Also future investors never get in "touch" with actual bitcoins, saving them from a lot of troubles when investing.

This is also why BAKKT future is so important: this means that bitcoin is not a financially valuable assets, but an asset that has some properties valuable beyond the price dynamic.
 
legendary
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Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer?   Huh

I prefer cash settled futures when I am shorting an asset.  I don’t want to be paid in the asset when the value of the asset is falling, I want to be paid in cash.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 1943
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Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer?   Huh
legendary
Activity: 3724
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
Not everyone can buy and hold bitcoin.
Institutional money need a “walled garden” to manage their positions because of regulatory/compliance/auditing constraints.
All those constrain don’t mean anything for Bitcoin, let alone for you!


They need to own the rules so they can game the system. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2114
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Not everyone can buy and hold bitcoin.
Institutional money need a “walled garden” to manage their positions because of regulatory/compliance/auditing constraints.
All those constrain don’t mean anything for Bitcoin, let alone for you!
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 1014
OMG, im shocked, really its walls of text to explain one way of investing? I mean why there is need to create such complex ways of investing in Bitcoin world?
Buying is best investment, why complicate things? Often its to confuse less bright or people less beign able to manage their funds, to make them make wrong decisions and loose money.
I really don't like complicated instruments of investment, banks love to create them to steal money from customers over and over. Its really sad how many people falling for that.
legendary
Activity: 2450
Merit: 2840
Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!

Please use your hands (or feet), regardless of your nicknames  Cool
legendary
Activity: 2114
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type.   Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote
I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely.   It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay.   Or is that options Im thinking of.

You are obliged to pay.
You actually have already have already paid it, as the exchange doesn’t wait until last day to ask you 7,941 USD: he rather ask you to cover the margins daily.
This is something I am going to detail in one of the next improvement of the OP post.
STT
legendary
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Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type.   Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote
I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely.   It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay.   Or is that options Im thinking of.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.
Expiry dates are easy to find on the description of the contract:

CME:
Quote
Termination Of Trading Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the U.K. and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the U.K. and the U.S..

So with a simple calendar of with some excel sorcery you can easily find why you are looking for.
Tomorrow I will anyway provide you with a list of all the past expiries.

EDIT:  here you go:


   Ticker      Month      Last Trade      First Notice      First Delivery      Last Delivery   
   BTCX8   Nov 18   30/11/2018   30/11/2018   30/11/2018   30/11/2018
   BTCZ8      Dec 18      28/12/2018      28/12/2018      28/12/2018      28/12/2018   
   BTCF9      Jan 19      25/01/2019      25/01/2019      25/01/2019      25/01/2019   
   BTCG9      Feb 19      22/02/2019      22/02/2019      22/02/2019      22/02/2019   
   BTCH9      Mar 19      29/03/2019      29/03/2019      29/03/2019      29/03/2019   
   BTCJ9      Apr 19      26/04/2019      26/04/2019      26/04/2019      26/04/2019   
   BTCK9      May 19      31/05/2019      31/05/2019      31/05/2019      31/05/2019   
   BTCM9      Jun 19      28/06/2019      28/06/2019      28/06/2019      28/06/2019   
   BTCN9      Jul 19      26/07/2019      26/07/2019      26/07/2019      26/07/2019   
   BTCQ9      Aug 19      30/08/2019      30/08/2019      30/08/2019      30/08/2019   
   BTCU9      Sep 19      27/09/2019      27/09/2019      27/09/2019      27/09/2019   
   BTCV9      Oct 19      25/10/2019      25/10/2019      25/10/2019      25/10/2019   
   BTCX9      Nov 19      29/11/2019      29/11/2019      29/11/2019      29/11/2019   
   BTCZ9      Dec 19      27/12/2019      27/12/2019      27/12/2019      27/12/2019   
   BTCH0      Mar 20      27/03/2020      27/03/2020      27/03/2020      27/03/2020   
                                    
                                 
hero member
Activity: 2254
Merit: 831
It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!
I don’t know how to do if I will ever dare into writing a similar post on options.
hero member
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I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

Alright. I'm waiting patiently. I've been wanting to know and understand what futures contracts mean. I always hear about CME futures opening and expiry without having even the slightest idea about it. But thanks to your thread, I've gotten to know a thing or two. I'll be on the lookout for when you add new content.
legendary
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1518
Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206
I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

it looks like it will become a full time job  Grin  take your time Buddy! all with some brain will be patient.

btw, my "thank you" post got deleted by "Moderator: MiningBuddy".  Roll Eyes  unfortunately don't feel happy with Thermos private playground anymore and working on something for real Quants.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 2270
I don't understand why you said nothing about the CoT (Commitments of Traders) ? It's very important in futures markets.
legendary
Activity: 3724
Merit: 4767
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
^^^--- Thx guys IOU both sM+

Maybe you should combine your efforts and make a guide for Regular Bitcoiners to understand the impact these new movers are and will be having on the markets..


Fucking h8 goldman Ballsacks!


EdiT:


This is a great video!
legendary
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1518
Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206
Thanks for the in depth explanation of the workings of these different systems.

Now would you like to tackle and add the options on futures on cme?

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/options-on-futures-for-equity-traders/why-options-on-futures-gives-added-benefit-of-diversifying-risk.html

Options are a much more complicated issue.
Lot of advanced math on these. Or even without math, if I try to explain “intuitively” lot of stuff to discuss.
I can try, once I have finished this, if I have enough supporter on this issue.
Let me know!

Hull Trading Company (acquired by Goldman Sachs in 1999) was very successful in trading with Options. very interesting topic too.

The Wall Street Code - VPRO documentary - 2013

EDIT: follow up with an other good video about the Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011 (had the "pleasure" to experience this event in may 2010 with a huge open position in EUR/USD as a Newbie Roll Eyes )

EDIT2: Quants - The Alchemists of Wall Street - VPRO documentary
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