Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! - page 9.

fillippone

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Quote

Intercontinental Exchange Says First Block Trade of Bakkt Bitcoin Futures Executed
(MT Newswires)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said Friday that the first block trade of Bakkt Bitcoin Futures submitted to ICE Futures US was executed.

The Bakkt Bitcoin Futures block trade was executed between Galaxy Digital and XBTO on Oct. 1, which was cleared by ED&F Man.
Price: 92.59, Change: +1.24, Percent Change: +1.36

BLOCK TRADE:

Quote

A block trade is the sale or purchase of a large number of securities. A block trade involves a significantly large number of equities or bonds being traded at an arranged price between two parties. Block trades are sometimes done outside of the open markets to lessen the impact on the security price.

So basically, it's some sort of "pre-arranged" trade between two counterparties who decide not to trad this in the open market, because it would have caused price disruption due to poor liquidity. This trade so is arranged and then it goes through the market infrastructure.

fillippone

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Quote from: Saint-loup on September 29, 2019, 03:28:21 AM

I don't understand why you said nothing about the CoT (Commitments of Traders) ? It's very important in futures markets.

There my friend.
I just added a paragraph detailing how to properly read a CoT report.

fillippone

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Quote from: Kakmakr on October 02, 2019, 01:25:11 AM

Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer? Huh

Regarding Bitcoin futures the main difference is custody.
For the vast majority of future subscribers the holding of a "physical bitcoin", is simply impossible, being it too complicated from a regulatory/compliance point of view and often beyond investment mandate. This is why CME launched cash settled futures first: this product perfectly integrate in the post trading workflow of any given future investor. Also future investors never get in "touch" with actual bitcoins, saving them from a lot of troubles when investing.

This is also why BAKKT future is so important: this means that bitcoin is not a financially valuable assets, but an asset that has some properties valuable beyond the price dynamic.

HairyMaclairy

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Quote from: Kakmakr on October 02, 2019, 01:25:11 AM

Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer? Huh

I prefer cash settled futures when I am shorting an asset. I don’t want to be paid in the asset when the value of the asset is falling, I want to be paid in cash.

Kakmakr

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Can you also explain why the investors prefer cash settled futures and not asset settled futures like the offering from Bakkt? I think this is one of the main reasons why other cash settled futures did much better than Bakkt.

Also, do you think institutional investors will eventually come around to investing more into Bakkt with it's asset settled futures or will they shy away from it?

What time frame are we talking about for investors to understand what the Bitcoin asset is, compared to other physical asset futures that are on offer? Huh

Hueristic

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Quote from: fillippone on October 01, 2019, 05:58:29 PM

Not everyone can buy and hold bitcoin.
Institutional money need a “walled garden” to manage their positions because of regulatory/compliance/auditing constraints.
All those constrain don’t mean anything for Bitcoin, let alone for you!

They need to own the rules so they can game the system.

fillippone

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Not everyone can buy and hold bitcoin.
Institutional money need a “walled garden” to manage their positions because of regulatory/compliance/auditing constraints.
All those constrain don’t mean anything for Bitcoin, let alone for you!

Velkro

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OMG, im shocked, really its walls of text to explain one way of investing? I mean why there is need to create such complex ways of investing in Bitcoin world?
Buying is best investment, why complicate things? Often its to confuse less bright or people less beign able to manage their funds, to make them make wrong decisions and loose money.
I really don't like complicated instruments of investment, banks love to create them to steal money from customers over and over. Its really sad how many people falling for that.

d_eddie

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Quote from: fillippone on September 29, 2019, 05:06:38 AM

Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!

Please use your hands (or feet), regardless of your nicknames Cool

fillippone

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Quote from: STT on October 01, 2019, 08:49:36 AM

Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type. Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote

I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely. It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay. Or is that options Im thinking of.

You are obliged to pay.
You actually have already have already paid it, as the exchange doesn’t wait until last day to ask you 7,941 USD: he rather ask you to cover the margins daily.
This is something I am going to detail in one of the next improvement of the OP post.

STT

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Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type. Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote

I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely. It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay. Or is that options Im thinking of.

fillippone

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Quote from: tbct_mt2 on September 29, 2019, 05:33:38 AM

It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.

Expiry dates are easy to find on the description of the contract:

CME:

Quote

Termination Of Trading

Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the U.K. and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the U.K. and the U.S..

So with a simple calendar of with some excel sorcery you can easily find why you are looking for.
Tomorrow I will anyway provide you with a list of all the past expiries.

EDIT: here you go:

Ticker	Month	Last Trade	First Notice	First Delivery	Last Delivery
BTCX8	Nov 18	30/11/2018	30/11/2018	30/11/2018	30/11/2018
BTCZ8	Dec 18	28/12/2018	28/12/2018	28/12/2018	28/12/2018
BTCF9	Jan 19	25/01/2019	25/01/2019	25/01/2019	25/01/2019
BTCG9	Feb 19	22/02/2019	22/02/2019	22/02/2019	22/02/2019
BTCH9	Mar 19	29/03/2019	29/03/2019	29/03/2019	29/03/2019
BTCJ9	Apr 19	26/04/2019	26/04/2019	26/04/2019	26/04/2019
BTCK9	May 19	31/05/2019	31/05/2019	31/05/2019	31/05/2019
BTCM9	Jun 19	28/06/2019	28/06/2019	28/06/2019	28/06/2019
BTCN9	Jul 19	26/07/2019	26/07/2019	26/07/2019	26/07/2019
BTCQ9	Aug 19	30/08/2019	30/08/2019	30/08/2019	30/08/2019
BTCU9	Sep 19	27/09/2019	27/09/2019	27/09/2019	27/09/2019
BTCV9	Oct 19	25/10/2019	25/10/2019	25/10/2019	25/10/2019
BTCX9	Nov 19	29/11/2019	29/11/2019	29/11/2019	29/11/2019
BTCZ9	Dec 19	27/12/2019	27/12/2019	27/12/2019	27/12/2019
BTCH0	Mar 20	27/03/2020	27/03/2020	27/03/2020	27/03/2020

tbct_mt2

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It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.

fillippone

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Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!
I don’t know how to do if I will ever dare into writing a similar post on options.

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Quote from: fillippone on September 29, 2019, 04:12:03 AM

I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

Alright. I'm waiting patiently. I've been wanting to know and understand what futures contracts mean. I always hear about CME futures opening and expiry without having even the slightest idea about it. But thanks to your thread, I've gotten to know a thing or two. I'll be on the lookout for when you add new content.

Gyrsur

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Quote from: fillippone on September 29, 2019, 04:12:03 AM

I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

it looks like it will become a full time job Grin

take your time Buddy! all with some brain will be patient.

btw, my "thank you" post got deleted by "Moderator: MiningBuddy". Roll Eyes

unfortunately don't feel happy with Thermos private playground anymore and working on something for real Quants.

fillippone

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I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

Saint-loup

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I don't understand why you said nothing about the CoT (Commitments of Traders) ? It's very important in futures markets.

Hueristic

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^^^--- Thx guys ~~IOU both sM+~~

Maybe you should combine your efforts and make a guide for Regular Bitcoiners to understand the impact these new movers are and will be having on the markets..

Fucking h8 goldman Ballsacks!

EdiT:

Quote from: Gyrsur on September 28, 2019, 10:32:04 AM

The Wall Street Code - VPRO documentary - 2013

This is a great video!

Gyrsur

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Quote from: fillippone on September 28, 2019, 09:18:52 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on September 28, 2019, 09:14:23 AM

Thanks for the in depth explanation of the workings of these different systems.

Now would you like to tackle and add the options on futures on cme?

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/options-on-futures-for-equity-traders/why-options-on-futures-gives-added-benefit-of-diversifying-risk.html

Options are a much more complicated issue.
Lot of advanced math on these. Or even without math, if I try to explain “intuitively” lot of stuff to discuss.
I can try, once I have finished this, if I have enough supporter on this issue.
Let me know!

Hull Trading Company (acquired by Goldman Sachs in 1999) was very successful in trading with Options. very interesting topic too.

The Wall Street Code - VPRO documentary - 2013

EDIT: follow up with an other good video about the Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011 (had the "pleasure" to experience this event in may 2010 with a huge open position in EUR/USD as a Newbie Roll Eyes

)

EDIT2: Quants - The Alchemists of Wall Street - VPRO documentary

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