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Topic: Everything you wanted to know about ES Volcano Bond and were afraid to ask! - page 2. (Read 1560 times)

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Who knows: maybe we're looking at the first bitcoin-denominated sovereign debt offering.

This is out of question for the moment.
Lending your bitcoin to a third party is something very difficult for the moment.
Also from the debtor point of view, debt in Bitcoin could get quite difficult nowadays: think about repaying such a bond in a bull market.

member
Activity: 120
Merit: 25
In my opinion El Salvador Bonds is a pretty experimental way to raise money, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The idea behind it was a bet on future government fees, which were paid up front in bitcoin and simple enough that it could find its way into the larger debt markets.

But the question remains whether this work will be a revolution in public finance or just a footnote?

Given the little information available on bitcoin bonding, it's hard to say it's even unclear how much money is raised at the end of the day, but if nothing else, it's an innovative solution for raising capital. Who knows: maybe we're looking at the first bitcoin-denominated sovereign debt offering.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

I like the way they themselves have the team on the ground foe coverage on the matter providing a realistic approach to see the whole thing to the public and good part in English also.As you see El Salvador bitcoin bonds is the new hot topic of discussion at this point and we need to know how Bukele goverment will proceed further with it as they aim to raise $1billion for bitcoin city.

They are he is a true bitcoiner, and he's interested in giving a prospect of how things stands in reality, without bowing to Bukele and other clowns in the country (Max and Stacey) who are fed dollars from the government to play the State Buffon.

He's always been advocating bitcoin as an instrument of freedom for the masses, hoping from the bottom up adoption from poorer states, not a top- down experiment , like in the civilised world, or even in El Salvador, in a way, where bitcoin has been imposed by a law.
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 2124
I usually prefer to listen to podcasts rather than watch YouTube.. but I will watch Youtube, once in a while if I know which one is being referenced.. and even better yet if the reference tells me which part of the video to watch or tells me the reasons why I should watch / listen to the whole thing.
I also prefer to listen to podcasts and have listened to the mining council about how they are using energy efficient resources and shifting to green mining which tells me the latest updates to backup my statements in any post and keep updated my knowledge.But also watch YouTube videos if I found some good one's although most of them are busy shilling fake and shit coins so go through other sources.

But yes if the video is long then it's helpful to listen to the specific part which emphasize on the whole matter for what's the video is upto and refrence to that part is really helpful.


Sorry, but the podcast I was referring is in Italian only. So, I thought it was pointless to provide an exact reference to it (I still can do that if you think it is worth, or, without spoiling your OpSec, you tell me that you can find Italian intelligible).
It's fine as we will not be able to understand what they are saying as we don't have graphical representation also to link up the audio and understand it but good for pointing it out to us and let us know about them as they will now be in English also so we can have look on them to see their viewpoint on the matter.

Regarding the "We are back" part, yes, they are back TO El Salvador.
Last year they provided a very nice reportage of 45 days spent in El Salvador documenting how the Bitcoin Ley was implemented, or actually NOT implemented in reality.

They provided a very good coverage, that was for the main part in Italian, and later translated in English.
You can find it here:

https://bitcoinitaliapodcast.it/missione-el-salvador
I like the way they themselves have the team on the ground foe coverage on the matter providing a realistic approach to see the whole thing to the public and good part in English also.As you see El Salvador bitcoin bonds is the new hot topic of discussion at this point and we need to know how Bukele goverment will proceed further with it as they aim to raise $1billion for bitcoin city.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 9972
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
During one of his last podcast, Rikki, one half of the "Bitcoin Explorers" Stated that the Bitcoin Bond was overly undersubscribed.
This was the exact opposite of what Samson Mow stated.

He is also very pessimistic about the possibility of having a bitcoin bond sooner than later (or never).
I will let you know if I discover more.
I usually prefer to listen to podcasts rather than watch YouTube.. but I will watch Youtube, once in a while if I know which one is being referenced.. and even better yet if the reference tells me which part of the video to watch or tells me the reasons why I should watch / listen to the whole thing.

Your link (fillippone) referenced the BitcoinExplorers channel which has three videos (two of them are 16 minutes and one is 18 minutes).. one of them has an El Salvador title.. Is that the one or do you want me (us, we) to watch all three of those to figure out the reference.. hahahahahaha.. not trying to pick on you... and by the way, if there is an audio podcast of bitcoiners, I don't mind subscribing to it and listening to all the updates.. even though sometimes if I just hear about one, then it can take a while to listen to some of the back issues.. but I had never previously heard of this one.. BitcoinExplorers..... even though their first video says "We're back".. Back from where?  I did not listen to (or watch) it.. hahahaha .. I need direction to be inspired "where to start?" and/or "will it be worth la pena (la tristezza)?"...
Sorry, but the podcast I was referring is in Italian only. So, I thought it was pointless to provide an exact reference to it (I still can do that if you think it is worth, or, without spoiling your OpSec, you tell me that you can find Italian intelligible).

Regarding the "We are back" part, yes, they are back TO El Salvador.
Last year they provided a very nice reportage of 45 days spent in El Salvador documenting how the Bitcoin Ley was implemented, or actually NOT implemented in reality.

They provided a very good coverage, that was for the main part in Italian, and later translated in English.
You can find it here:

https://bitcoinitaliapodcast.it/missione-el-salvador

This year they are going to do the same mission (that's why the "We are back" claim), only broadening their focus on the whole Central America. And I guess they choose to broaden also their audience adopting the English Language.

I fully support The BIP Show: I don't know how, but I am often 100% on their side when there are controversial subjects.

Thanks for the information and those links.  Of course, if we are posting in an English thread, then we might need to point out if our sources might be in another language, and surely it is up to you how much you feel that it is necessary to either back up your sources or to provide the links (even if non-English is the only source that you know for the point that you are making).   

Sure in regards to the point that you were making, then surely sources would be important.. and of course, Samson is already known to be close to Bukele, but at the same time, he has been criticized about his sometimes overstating (marketing) and surely El Salvador has been criticized for similar spin-making.. so then part of the question might be whether your sources might have better information.. or maybe no matter what we might be speculating regarding some of those kinds of quasi-non-public details regarding volcano bond subscribership, the reasons (explanations) for the subscribership levels and also even speculations to be able to raise money for those kinds of causes during our current market environment. 

For sure, being on the ground in El Salvador can bring more credibility in terms of getting closer to primary sources, but then also sometimes being able to verify whether some of the factual representations are lining up with on-the-ground experience.... for example, how easy it might be to buy a sim card with bitcoin or some other example.. of some point that is being made.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
During one of his last podcast, Rikki, one half of the "Bitcoin Explorers" Stated that the Bitcoin Bond was overly undersubscribed.
This was the exact opposite of what Samson Mow stated.

He is also very pessimistic about the possibility of having a bitcoin bond sooner than later (or never).
I will let you know if I discover more.

I usually prefer to listen to podcasts rather than watch YouTube.. but I will watch Youtube, once in a while if I know which one is being referenced.. and even better yet if the reference tells me which part of the video to watch or tells me the reasons why I should watch / listen to the whole thing.

Your link (fillippone) referenced the BitcoinExplorers channel which has three videos (two of them are 16 minutes and one is 18 minutes).. one of them has an El Salvador title.. Is that the one or do you want me (us, we) to watch all three of those to figure out the reference.. hahahahahaha.. not trying to pick on you... and by the way, if there is an audio podcast of bitcoiners, I don't mind subscribing to it and listening to all the updates.. even though sometimes if I just hear about one, then it can take a while to listen to some of the back issues.. but I had never previously heard of this one.. BitcoinExplorers..... even though their first video says "We're back".. Back from where?  I did not listen to (or watch) it.. hahahaha .. I need direction to be inspired "where to start?" and/or "will it be worth la pena (la tristezza)?"...

Sorry, but the podcast I was referring is in Italian only. So, I thought it was pointless to provide an exact reference to it (I still can do that if you think it is worth, or, without spoiling your OpSec, you tell me that you can find Italian intelligible).

Regarding the "We are back" part, yes, they are back TO El Salvador.
Last year they provided a very nice reportage of 45 days spent in El Salvador documenting how the Bitcoin Ley was implemented, or actually NOT implemented in reality.

They provided a very good coverage, that was for the main part in Italian, and later translated in English.
You can find it here:

https://bitcoinitaliapodcast.it/missione-el-salvador

This year they are going to do the same mission (that's why the "We are back" claim), only broadening their focus on the whole Central America. And I guess they choose to broaden also their audience adopting the English Language.

I fully support The BIP Show: I don't know how, but I am often 100% on their side when there are controversial subjects.



legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 9972
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
During one of his last podcast, Rikki, one half of the "Bitcoin Explorers" Stated that the Bitcoin Bond was overly undersubscribed.
This was the exact opposite of what Samson Mow stated.

He is also very pessimistic about the possibility of having a bitcoin bond sooner than later (or never).
I will let you know if I discover more.

I usually prefer to listen to podcasts rather than watch YouTube.. but I will watch Youtube, once in a while if I know which one is being referenced.. and even better yet if the reference tells me which part of the video to watch or tells me the reasons why I should watch / listen to the whole thing.

Your link (fillippone) referenced the BitcoinExplorers channel which has three videos (two of them are 16 minutes and one is 18 minutes).. one of them has an El Salvador title.. Is that the one or do you want me (us, we) to watch all three of those to figure out the reference.. hahahahahaha.. not trying to pick on you... and by the way, if there is an audio podcast of bitcoiners, I don't mind subscribing to it and listening to all the updates.. even though sometimes if I just hear about one, then it can take a while to listen to some of the back issues.. but I had never previously heard of this one.. BitcoinExplorers..... even though their first video says "We're back".. Back from where?  I did not listen to (or watch) it.. hahahaha .. I need direction to be inspired "where to start?" and/or "will it be worth la pena (la tristezza)?"...
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
During one of his last podcast, Rikki, one half of the "Bitcoin Explorers" Stated that the Bitcoin Bond was overly undersubscribed.
This was the exact opposite of what Samson Mow stated.

He is also very pessimistic about the possibility of having a bitcoin bond sooner than later (or never).
I will let you know if I discover more.

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
We might be ahead of time, but just looking at the possibility of issuing a bond, the timing doesn’t look great.
Bitcoin is at a historic low, with institutional interest waning and less committed than one year ago.
We all know you want to buy when the market is low, and not when it is high, but often financial need doesn’t work this way.
Also, the yield for the El Salvadorean Bond has dramatically risen since one year ago. At the moment, a 7Y Bond from El Salvador should yield at least 25%:




This is up 16% one year ago (red line in the graph), albeit down from 34% 3 Months ago (white line in the Graph).

And this is a “simple” bond. Usually, exotic bonds, with some “weird” payoff attached, are requested to yield more.

Bear in mind when you see the new Bitcoin Bond, with a coupon of 20%!


legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 6108
Jambler.io
They are still coming up with this :
Quote
The proposed blockchain bonds, with a minimum investment of just $100, are meant to help finance the construction of a tax-free, coastal Bitcoin City that would have geothermal energy from a nearby volcano for mining digital coins.

Their magical geothermal well that somehow evaporated, the bitcoin mining promoted in videos is dead with no talk about the operation, energy prices are matching those in nearby countries, Salvador is a net importer of energy, and they still claim they are able to invest in mining? Companies involved in mining are facing bankruptcy and the revenue has come down to some measly 5$ for every 75kwh burned but some still think this will be catchy, let's promote mining although we have no serious clue how it will work and there is a 90% chance of being a money pit!

The bright side on this is that it's nice they haven't gone with their plan at 40k/BTC at least they are able to buy the famous dip Bukele keeps hitting it!

Quote
The bonds will pay a 6.5% yield and enable fast-tracked citizenship for investors. The government will share half the additional gains with investors as a Bitcoin Dividend once the original $500 million has been monetized. These dividends will be dispersed annually using Blockstream's asset management platform.

You build a city from scratch, you exempt businesses and citizens from taxes, you build the infrastructure for free energy, and somehow magically you will get 6.5% returns!
Is that better than Celsius rates?  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 2124
Also heard about the same on twitter and finally after a year they have submitted to securities bill with congress to issue the bitcoin bonds in the country.Altough Nayib has not made official tweet about the same but he has retweeted the Bloomberg report which clearly indicates the sign that they are close to the action.

The bill can be approved before this year Christmas as per some sources so we will see how it goes for the most anticipated fund raising in El Salvador at $1 billion split in half of $500 million.

Quote
The bonds will pay a 6.5% yield and enable fast-tracked citizenship for investors. The government will share half the additional gains with investors as a Bitcoin Dividend once the original $500 million has been monetized. These dividends will be dispersed annually using Blockstream's asset management platform.

Quote
Bitfinex is set to be granted a license in order to be able to process and list the bond issuance in El Salvador.



@fillippone can you find the translated version for it?

If anyone is interested in reading the full 33 page of securities bill then they can find out it here : Bitcoin bonds
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Some news about Bitcoin Bonds coming from El salvador.
 



As we highlighter in the thread,the lack of a “bitcoin law”,  a key foundation for  the Volcano bond, was still lacking from El Salvador.
Something is moving according to this sources.


Quote from: bloomberg
El Salvador Steps Closer to Issuing Controversial Bitcoin Bonds

  • Presidency dispatches a digital-securities bill to lawmakers
    El Salvador Steps Closer to Issuing Controversial Bitcoin Bonds
  • Presidency dispatches a digital-securities bill to lawmakers
  • President Bukele aims to raise $1 billion via blockchain bonds

By Michael McDonald
(Bloomberg) --
El Salvador’s presidency dispatched a digital-securities bill to lawmakers, taking the nation a step closer to raising $1 billion via the world’s first sovereign blockchain bond.
A spokesperson for the presidency late Tuesday released a copy of the 33-page legislation, which calls for a digital-assets commission and a Bitcoin Fund Management Agency to oversee crypto-related debt sales.
The text says the goal is to “create a legal framework to transfer digital assets that are used in public issuances in El Salvador, as well as regulate the requirements and obligations of issuers and providers of digital assets.”
The proposed blockchain bonds, with a minimum investment of just $100, are meant to help finance the construction of a tax-free, coastal Bitcoin City that would have geothermal energy from a nearby volcano for mining digital coins.
The bonds would raise $500 million for infrastructure in Bitcoin City and another $500 million to buy Bitcoin, with any appreciation in the digital currency ultimately shared with bondholders.
El Salvador last year became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender. President Nayib Bukele, a champion of cryptocurrencies, has been trying to hawk Bitcoin-backed bonds to international investors but with little success.
The controversial initiative is stoking worries worries about the nation’s creditworthiness amid stalled talks with the International Monetary Fund on financing to help plug a budget gap.

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

So?

My post was meant to resonate with what @Stompix said: I couldn't be more bullish on bitcoin, but I cannot be bullish on El Salvador, even if their hipster dictator adopted bitcoin as legal tender or got help from some most notable experts from the BTC world.

This debt crisis revealed the weak spot of the Bitcoin Bond Strategy....it wasn't sensible in bull markets; it is even more stupid now in bear markets.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 9972
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Bitcoin Bond has disappeared.
No law was approved
No news From Bukele
No word from the Bitcoin Bond "architect".

Nothing.

Probably, the global outlook for the Bond market is not the best.
In addition, Bitcoin markets are not really bullish at the moment.
Third, El Salvador is on the brink of a default on its debt.



Of course, the economic impact on the nation's finance of the bitcoin purchase is quite irrelevant, so be warned that the story that the bitcoin law led El Salvador to bankruptcy is "bullshit", to say the least.

So?

How long are we going to give it?

You are giving up fillippone?

How about we give it until the end of the Calendar year?  That's only 6 months.

We know that bitcoin bear markets can last 5 months to 2 years.. and sometimes we are not even sure if we are out of the bear market, yet.

We surely can have difficulties even knowing how long we had been in a bear market, even though it seems to have had been confirmed around mid-May 2022 when the BTC price dropped below $35k and failed to spring back up in a quick manner..

Maybe if the BTC price were to at least get back above $30k, then some of the El Salvador bitcoin bond investment discussions can resume? 

Really, is nothing being done on all of the various El Salvador bitcoin-related investment fronts, or are there just low key operations taking place in El Salvador (for the time being?)?

Building gets done during bitcoin bear markets?  Hype gets done during bitcoin bull markets?  You are suspecting that El Salvador had overdone the hype portion, and made too many mistakes? 
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 6108
Jambler.io
Bitcoin Bond has disappeared.
No law was approved
No news From Bukele
No word from the Bitcoin Bond "architect".

Oh, who could have thought of that!
The bond was 200% oversubscribed, thousands were ready to invest in this ...scheme! And no word from Bukele?
No word, just like it happened with the 200MW geothermal eco-friendly one in the world bitcoin mining project?
Oh no, after Akon city now there is no Vulcano city?
Man, those surprises one after one, I need a large cup of green tea to keep myself calm, this is overhelming!

Damn, so now we have to go back to square one and use bitcoin for what it was, a payment system that didn't need a third party, and stop using it as a propaganda tool for some wanna-be dictator. Tough choice but I can live with that!


legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Bitcoin Bond has disappeared.
No law was approved
No news From Bukele
No word from the Bitcoin Bond "architect".

Nothing.

Probably, the global outlook for the Bond market is not the best.
In addition, Bitcoin markets are not really bullish at the moment.
Third, El Salvador is on the brink of a default on its debt.



Of course, the economic impact on the nation's finance of the bitcoin purchase is quite irrelevant, so be warned that the story that the bitcoin law led El Salvador to bankruptcy is "bullshit", to say the least.


legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 9972
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

From an investor's point of view, you have a country that is in deep "that", unable to pay its debts, a gambling wannabe dictator that has managed to catch all the 7 dips to date, and the only reason for these bonds to actually work is a rise in price in Bitcoins and a utopia no property tax, no income tax utopia city to be actually profitable excluding the other 12 billion needed for it to be built.

The path for the Volcano bonds to succeed is narrower and narrower everyday. And this is only partly related to bitcoin.
Of course, even some Excellion statements must be put under scrutiny: how and why, an oversubscribed bonds get delayed because of adverse market conditions?

Some factors might be unsaid.

For example, if the creators and promoters of the bond feel that they can ONLY release the bond in market conditions in which they have a high confidence that BTC prices will be going up, then in that sense they attempt to time the market without really directly saying that is what they are doing. 

Of course, we also know that sentiment has a tendency to inversely correlate to where the BTC price is going... so when the BTC price is going up and has been going up for a while bullish sentiment gets pretty high.. but that does not necessarily result in the BTC price continuing to go up.  The opposite is true regarding the BTC price going down, and sentiment can stay negative for quite a long time, even when the evidence becomes pretty clear that the "bottom is in." 

Sure, maybe something else more nefarious is going on.. but I really doubt it.

By the way, maybe one of the implications that you are making fillippone is that they were asserting that they were not technically ready to release the bond, but the evidence is showing that technically they could have released the bond, so they had been providing technicalities as an excuse rather than their real concerns.. and also you seem to be implying that they had been overly asserting the level of subscription (sentiment towards buying the bond), and even if you are correct that sentiment was never as strong as they were making it out to be, they still might have had been making the better decision to not have had released the bond and to continue to not release the bond, even if they are not completely describing all of their rationale or accurately describing the underlying facts.

The latest failure/refusal to release the bond may well have not even had been nefarious.. even though some people might ascribe nefariousness in terms of telling the truth no matter what or following through no matter what.. yet from my thinking I have my doubts about ascribing nefariousness.. even if it could be true that they ended up coming to some of the wrong balance.. because maybe in the end it would have been the "right thing to do" to just keep the date no matter what the market conditions.. and even if they had pretty strong feelings that they were going to be releasing the bond into a market with likely negative rather than a positive momentum.... oh and another by the way, most of us also realize that some actions take place on the margins, and sometimes what the actors end up doing does end up having a tipping effect in terms of contributing to what direction the market ended up going... but it seems really difficult to have confidence (even after the fact) in knowing those kinds of tipping effect consequential things that might have come from whether the behaviors would have been to do x or to do y or to do z.. even with BIG and influential actors.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

From an investor's point of view, you have a country that is in deep "that", unable to pay its debts, a gambling wannabe dictator that has managed to catch all the 7 dips to date, and the only reason for these bonds to actually work is a rise in price in Bitcoins and a utopia no property tax, no income tax utopia city to be actually profitable excluding the other 12 billion needed for it to be built.

The path for the Volcano bonds to succeed is narrower and narrower everyday. And this is only partly related to bitcoin.
Of course, even some Excellion statements must be put under scrutiny: how and why, an oversubscribed bonds get delayed because of adverse market conditions?
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 6108
Jambler.io
While the article wrongly  links the rout in bond debt of El Salvador to Bitcoin, there is a true correlation on this.

The rout has more with Bukele than with bitcoin but from there is just another hop and in the mind of somebody who doesn't like details it's one and the same..

From an investor's point of view, you have a country that is in deep "that", unable to pay its debts, a gambling wannabe dictator that has managed to catch all the 7 dips to date, and the only reason for these bonds to actually work is a rise in price in Bitcoins and a utopia no property tax, no income tax utopia city to be actually profitable excluding the other 12 billion needed for it to be built. So, why even bother with these and not buy other ^%^% that is tied to the price if we assume you can't buy bitcoin directly? Even Micro or Riot stocks seem safer than these despite that ski slope they are drawing in the charts!
Anyhow, it's still possible for the bitcoin bond to be a success while Salvador defaults on its debt, this wouldn't amaze me at all, I've seen enough fucked up things to not even raise an eyebrow.

Oh, btw, :
Quote
5. How this Bond is innovating the Financial System.
hihi, now this starts to sound more and more like  "kickstarting a new Bitcoin Standard"  Cheesy

Also, don't get in Twitter feuds, even eating 3 times a day at KFC is healthier than that. Wink
 
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Today I got in a Twitter feud about El Salvador Bitcoin Bonds:



Here you have the Bloomberg Article that started the discussion:
Bitcoin-Bond Sale Flop Deepens Debt Market Rout in El Salvador

Quote
Prices on the country’s debt collapsed in April, falling 15.1%, a rout only surpassed by bonds in war-torn Ukraine. El Salvador’s benchmark bonds due in 2032 now yield 24%, a level that suggests investors are bracing for default.
Since abandoning talks with the IMF and adopting Bitcoin as official tender last year, investors have soured on El Salvador’s bonds, concerned not only with the ability to keep current on its debt but also the willingness to keep paying under the eccentric 40-year-old Bukele who has flashed authoritarian tendencies. And now, as the January debt maturity approaches, the 78-cent price on the notes shows many bondholders are losing conviction.

While the article wrongly  links the rout in bond debt of El Salvador to Bitcoin, there is a true correlation on this.

If the yield requested by investors to hold El Salvador Credit Risk denominated in USD, this means Bitcoin Bonds as originally described must also raise greatly. You see from the graph below the yield needed to hold an 8 years bond surged from 7% one year ago, to 20% 3 months ago to 35% today.


You can then guess  that if you think at the exercice I proposed on the OP now you can buy at the moment, the initial exercise of buying a USD denominated Bond



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