Topic: expect a set of 3 articles about China situation and a prediction following - page 2. (Read 4724 times)

There's no doubt about it. Freedom may be the ultimate ideal but there are strong links to be drawn between freedom and myriad problems in society.

True freedom (of thought, of belief, of finance, of choice, etc) has no value to a culture or society that has never felt it.  When you are basically born into a culture that brainwashes its citizens into believing that they need lordship and stewardship in order to survive, they don't know what it means to have the power to survive on their own.  In fact, they'll be raised and brainwashed to violently oppose the idea.  Just look at the citizens of North Korea for a living example.

Despite my aversion to the Lord and my aversion to myself for having been trained to speculate what Lord thinks as a survival exercise for the last decade, I actually find the following interesting and important: There is no sufficient proof that a free society is more productive than a society of strong political central power combined with almost-free market policies. Or: Milton Friedman suggested "a society allowing free market will eventually evolve into a free society thanks to its influnce on people's willingness to choose; free market is incompatible with regime of centralism in the long term". but What Chinese calls Socialism with chinese characteristics worked well enough and long enough to disapprove Milton. Personally, no matter how I love freedom, a down-to-the-ground rational thinker like me fail to find the necessity for this love, almost like an homo find it hard to rationalize his love -- , unless I consider freedom self-evident, that is, like a religion.

I seriously hope you reference your "Lord" with disdain and facetiousness...because it's the 21st century, discussing cryptocurrency designed to facilitate freedom...how any human could seriously refer to another human being as "Lord" - and worse, how any human ego is shoved so far up his own ass he thinks he's even relevant enough to be called Lord in the 21st century, is beyond me.

That's part of the problem - people need to get up off their knees and realize these people aren't leaders and they aren't lords. They are just other dudes in suits using their resources to overcome someone else. If China ever wants to see itself liberated from its communist psychopath leaders who think they're above the law and above deity (or deity incarnate, which is delusional, sorry), the people of China need to disregard their "Lord", tell him to shove it up his ass, and massively adopt bitcoin regardless.

The only way this ends is when people grow the hell up.

Apologies for the rant but I read "Lord" and just made my eye start twitching at the absurdity of such a label or title in this day and age.

Carry on.

Thanks, this is what most are expecting as well.  When this happens, it will be amusing to watch because once the uptrend gains significant momentum nothing will really slow it down.  At that point the rest of the world will have become completely immune to any more China bad news.  The market will probably go down a little on the news, but it'll be a temporary speed bump/blip as those coins quickly get bought back up and things continue on.  The people buying in the rest of the world will fear nothing.  It will be like a stampede, a tsunami that the PBOC won't be able to hold back.  They can set all the fake future dates that they want, but bitcoin demand worldwide will continue to outstrip supply, and roll right past any more bad news from China.  And then at that point the Chinese government and PBOC will lose complete face with their people, because the rest of the world will have spoken loud and clear: bitcoin belongs to the world, not just China.  It will be embarrassing for them, because they can't control it.  They'll either have to allow bitcoin to live, or risk driving it offshore or into a black market on the mainland.  Meanwhile everywhere else in the world, bitcoin will continue to thrive and grow.

I delivered 2 articles. The recent 2 months's event unfold faster than I thought, that I have to deliver prediction before the 3rd article:


What are the outcomes

A strong ban, a national 'illegal exchanges cleanse' action to rule the exchanges outlaw and ask them to settle and stop exchange business before a certain date. If non-PBOC ministries participated, they will consider to also take down a few non-bitcoin exchanges, e.g. underground stock broker, to weaken Bitcoin's publicity and to incriminate Bitcoin by putting it together with other guilty financial schemas.
Condition: 1. the PBOC consider a strong pose in financial sector against shadow baking benifitial or not harmful to other non-Bitcoin measurements they are about to take. After all PBOC's main task is monetary policy, need to weight the message they deliver to the market. 2. Bitcoin exchanges or Bitcoin itself is not weakened in their observation period.
Probability for this condition to be met: 50% likely


The second on the candidate list is a ban from non-PBOC entity (most likely Ministry of Industry and Information or Ministry of Commerce) for any commercial activities related to Bitcoin - this second possibility won't happen in May, because one weak ban after anther weak ban in short interval weakens Lord's image. After all you should fear the Lord, not to play hide-and-seek.
Condition: Bitcoin exchanges are about to die out or exiled completely, just need a push.
Probability for this condition to be met: 25% likely:

The third is our Lord's plan B. Use state media to question one exchange about insolvency (typically largest of all targets), force it to actually be insolvent (if it is managable), and use state media propoganda machine to paint Bitcoin evil and black, from birth, with news, documentaries, radio etc etc. This plan is really not needed: as "Art of War" said, letting your enemy quit without a fight is better than killing it in fight; also, thanks to the Internet, change attitude that radically would harm the regime.
Condition: it happens if die-hard bitcoin believers started some group-activities that calls a lot of atention due to Bitcoin price raise largely OR the state decide to take down another die-hard enemy similar in influnce of Bitcoin, and by killing Bitcoin in a confrontation, save the need to do it again for a harder enemy: for the time being, the harder enemy is either P2P lending business or Alibaba.
Probability for this condition to be met: 12% likely

PBOC will say nothing more.
Condition: if exchanges all choose to self-exile, or just do business with cash-at-door on tiny scale, or just die (FxBTC), not trying hosting P2P trading, not trying ATM or vendor machines or tried but not successful, and PBOC consider they are weak enough, and in the interim the world bitcoin price doesn't rally.
Probability for this condition to be met: 12% likely


Not weighted for now: Take down a leading exchange with the execuse of tax issue and others will quit by themselves. If this route is chosen, it should be down long ago when exchanges were not getting so much attention.
Conditoin: if the following is done successfully, the Lord will reconsider this approach.

will always happen together with other outcomes except PlanB: little media exposure (good-or-bad) for Bitcoin in state-own medias, less and less in other Chinese medias.

Will there be a raid?

Western readers are concerned with violence so I had to address it. For Chinese readers I won't mention it, because it is:

1% likely: There will unlikely be an arrest / raid, because that sort of thing should happen before the event escalate to central government, when the central government can always blame lower level for the blood. Now:
1. Since this issue is brought to central (The Lord) as early as Dec 2013, there is no space for bloody nor violence.
2. consideration of foreign capital involvement, explicit force action backfires PR trouble.
3. arrest by national government usually targets those outspoken member who holds different opinion than the government and also different than the people around him, in short, a prominent target. For example, if you say "all officials are corrupted and parasite of the country", they won't arrest you, because your opinion is just another average Joe; but, if you sing freedom and democracy, you are not only different from the government, but also different from the average Joe hence a prominent target (the people do not demand either of these, they demand opportunity-to-be-wealthy and no-corruption-ruling). None of the exchanges are prominent target by this definition. For example, Huobi CEO explicitly said "Bitcoin can't be a global currency", and emphasized its property as "collector's piece" hence he is not a prominent target.
4. The regime is rather kind and humane, you are often given a chance, a hint, before violence - usually by inviting you for a tea (and you are really served tea! I never experienced it but I heard it is free and in a nice café - I hope I can choose, because my favorite tea is usually too expensive for me).  He who do not repent gets trouble. Even Don Juan is given a chance to repent. None of the bitcoin players are stupid enough not to repent.

What is the effect on price

Sorry, I haven't do homework for this party yet. But it depends on which of the above happens. Things happened too fast for my brain to process.

What is the 3rd article about

An attempt to find out what drives the bubble in the first place.

P.S.

- A list of guest writing for Bitcoinblog.de by me can be find http://bitcoinblog.de/category/english/ where my name Weiwu is.

Not to diminish the OP work, but we already know that bitcoin has no immediate future in China. We still have the rest of the world that is NOT China.
The world is much bigger. If China wants to use the old monetary system-it is totally fine by me.

Awesome, reading now...

Thank you for your contributions.

The second is finally here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-expect-that-self-regulation-by-chinese-exchanges-cant-please-the-central-606390

The third is in the editing workflow.

Excellent info. Thank you for posting !

Thank you!


The next article was written yesterday, is in editing pipeline now. It contained no prediction but overview of Chinese Bitcoin invetment behavior (teaser: it is not much different than Chinese agarwood investment, which has a market cap in China close to the Bitcoin global market-cap). Unfortunately my eye injury delayed me, that I start to worry not being able to deliver the 3rd article before 10th May. Guest writing is a lot of work to do than random post on the forum - need to check the fact and think over the points made, whether or not they are valid and based on fact etc etc, but it is worth it, it is a pleasure and rewarding experience to work with professional editors.

I did talking in the Bitcoin world. My editor is pushing for the "most insightful journalist" award, which, if successful would be very helpful position for me to move from talking to acting, to establish bitcoin projects - that I longed to do. If you send flower kindly send it as the blockchain.info nominations:

It is true. (for these Chinese banks). I explained before that in the West the banks control the government and it is the other way round in China:)

You're one of the most interesting poster on these forums OP. It's always a pleasure to read your insights. Thanks you.

Perhaps they are fleeing the country?

I'm just curious that what are those Chinese exchange CEOs doing right now? Are they worrying about losing their business license?

Thank you for such a insightful perspective. I am kind of blown away by this but it make's a lot of sense. Looking forward to reading more from you.

Had you been paying attention in class you would know that all those banks are essentially government owned banks. Either central government or local government. It is more likely the case that it is Bitcoin that is a flea on on the donkey's arse that the PBOC has made a special point of crushing whilst the donkey's arse (the banks) is like 'eh, wot you bothering about that one particular tiny little flea for?'.

Can't wait to read your next article. Excellent reporting, Zhang.

I don't get this. Price discussion aside, I almost have the impression that Chinese banks don't give much of a shit about what PBOC says in the matter.

Makes me wonder whether the scary Chinese Govt has also weakened its control over its own citizens.

Based on this article, this unprecedented micro-action of the PBOC should had made the banks run scared to close the accounts, but there are still some allowing bitcoin accounts.