Expected value in sports betting | Bitcointalksearch.org

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: STT on September 28, 2019, 11:14:30 AM

Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 08:43:31 AM

On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

People have actually turned the chances positive for themselves on roulette and the casino said it wasnt fair but a court said they should be paid. They used laser tracking on the wheel to detect the most probable numbers, using this improved chance the roulette wheel player placed higher money at certain times to get a positive return over the evening. I think they got a million+ from it hence the court case, was in London. I might search for the article on it later.
I have read though its foreign to me that some can manually detect a roulette wheel which has worn and become more liable to certain numbers, must be alot of talent required for that.

I found an old article on BBC. This news was released on 2004. I guess this is what you are talking about.
Any way, here we are not discussing about a real roulette in London or Vegas. We are discussing about an online game which the outcome is determined by some mathematics calculations.

STT

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Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 08:43:31 AM

On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

People have actually turned the chances positive for themselves on roulette and the casino said it wasnt fair but a court said they should be paid. They used laser tracking on the wheel to detect the most probable numbers, using this improved chance the roulette wheel player placed higher money at certain times to get a positive return over the evening. I think they got a million+ from it hence the court case, was in London. I might search for the article on it later.
I have read though its foreign to me that some can manually detect a roulette wheel which has worn and become more liable to certain numbers, must be alot of talent required for that.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: Heisenberg_Hunter on September 27, 2019, 02:48:47 PM

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 26, 2019, 07:31:05 PM

Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?

Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post.

So, the example you made for positive expected value case is no longer valid.
The expected value is always negative in dice game. In dice game the expected value can be positive only if the house edge is negative which is impossible. In sports betting the expected value can be positive.

Assume that there is a game between teams "A" and "B". Team "A" has 70% chance to win the game and team "B" has "30%" chance.
If the house edge is 1%, the odds are
A: 99/70=1.414
B: 99/30=3.3
If we use 70% and 30% in our calculations the expected value is negative.
The expected value is positive only when the gambler analyze the teams and believe that the probabilities that have been used for calculating the odds are wrong.
For example a gambler believe that team "A" has 80% chance and team "B" has 20% chance and bets 0.001 BTC on team "A".
If the gambler wins the bet, he will get 0.001*0.414=0.0001414
So, the expected value is as follows.
EV= [0.000414*0.8]-[0.001*0.2]= 0.000131

ralle14

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Quote from: Haunebu on September 27, 2019, 04:27:29 AM

All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.

Its simple really. If you manage to have an above average ROI over an extended period of time, you will stand to profit in the long term. This is how so many successful punters succeeded in the long run without focusing too much on the math behind it all.

For sports betting, luck doesn't matter when you find matches with odds that are +EV. You don't have to look on each teams stats but like i've said earlier effort is still needed because you need to have so many accounts on several sportsbooks to get the best odds for better profits.

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 27, 2019, 08:00:05 AM

So you are saying that the odds on different bookies can be determined so the profit is guaranteed if the gambler can catch the opportunity. But this is not called positive expected value.
Am I right?

The first example buwaytress mentioned is +EV because he placed a bet on the first outcome with 8/1 odds and 7/1 odds on the other it's basically betting on team a and team b with both odds higher than even. But the second example isn't because the better probability is only on one outcome which is to score it would only be +EV if the odds for Sturridge to not score is at least 2/1 or higher.

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 26, 2019, 07:31:05 PM

Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?

Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post.

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 27, 2019, 08:00:05 AM

In long term, It's impossible to win in dice, roulette or crash game. That's due to the existence of house edge. We have heard about many strategies. But all of them lead to loss in the long term.
The big difference between roulette and sport games is that the result in dice or roulette is determined by mathematics calculations, but in sports betting, the result is determined on the field of play.

This is quite true. Often we would end up in losing our money if we have kept a higher multiplier or so in dice/roulette based gambling games. Whereas it could be predicted to bet on a sports game played in real time. The players can be analysed upon and the bets can be placed upon that. This is why it could be much more safer than playing a game of dice and losing your hard earned money. On the other hand, the gamblers try to recoup their losses by playing again and again which could make the situation ever more worse than they are.

Bossian

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Quote from: shoreno on September 27, 2019, 07:41:14 AM

Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 06:29:18 AM

it's possible to get value and win in the long term, very difficult but possible, cannot be compared with roulette or this kind of game when your chances to win in the long term are a big fat 0.

roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose . on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .

Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 06:29:18 AM

most Bitcoin bookmakers don't offer value, you have to bet in fiat on bet365, Betfair, etc.

most of them yes but the number of sports betting sites that accept cryptos are now growing. soon as cryptos grow , these sites can also grow. those who only accept fiat will soon decide to accept crypto or else their business will crash

You didn't get my point. On sports betting if you are good enough, you can get a 60% profit on a selection that has 80% chance to win, that is what bettors call value. IF YOU ARE SHARP it's possible to find these opportunities.
On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 27, 2019, 07:33:13 AM

Sometimes odds also fluctuate because of crowd wisdom, and when you know relatively well the sports, you can regularly predict with better accuracy than the crowd.

But, there are also huge opportunities for guaranteed profit. E.G. first time boost offers on many bookies in the UK on big games. Champions League finals, Europa League finals. I remember opening an account on 2 bookies, took advantage of 8/1 and 7/1 odds boosted... and there was 1 guaranteed outcome of each.

Or odds that are higher than the probability of some guy scoring for example. 2/1 for Sturridge to score when he was on a >1 goals per game ratio streak, good value. but +EV?

So you are saying that the odds on different bookies can be determined so the profit is guaranteed if the gambler can catch the opportunity. But this is not called positive expected value.
Am I right?

Quote from: shoreno on September 27, 2019, 07:41:14 AM

roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose . on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .

In long term, It's impossible to win in dice, roulette or crash game. That's due to the existence of house edge. We have heard about many strategies. But all of them lead to loss in the long term.
The big difference between roulette and sport games is that the result in dice or roulette is determined by mathematics calculations, but in sports betting, the result is determined on the field of play.

shoreno

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Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 06:29:18 AM

it's possible to get value and win in the long term, very difficult but possible, cannot be compared with roulette or this kind of game when your chances to win in the long term are a big fat 0.

roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose . on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .

Quote from: Bossian on September 27, 2019, 06:29:18 AM

most Bitcoin bookmakers don't offer value, you have to bet in fiat on bet365, Betfair, etc.

most of them yes but the number of sports betting sites that accept cryptos are now growing. soon as cryptos grow , these sites can also grow. those who only accept fiat will soon decide to accept crypto or else their business will crash

buwaytress

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Yeah, I've never used the term +EV in sportsbetting. It's not an exact science at all, the way odds are calculated, and as Boston Red Sox owners found out with Liverpool, Moneyball statistics don't always work due to the high level of unpredictability in most sports with human error and a myriad of other unforeseeable options happening.

But there is definitely in my mind value bets, which is what I attempt to do in daily betting. Comparing bookies for the same bet and taking the one with the lowest margins? That's always guaranteeing more winnings simply by picking the best odds.

Sometimes odds also fluctuate because of crowd wisdom, and when you know relatively well the sports, you can regularly predict with better accuracy than the crowd.

But, there are also huge opportunities for guaranteed profit. E.G. first time boost offers on many bookies in the UK on big games. Champions League finals, Europa League finals. I remember opening an account on 2 bookies, took advantage of 8/1 and 7/1 odds boosted... and there was 1 guaranteed outcome of each.

Or odds that are higher than the probability of some guy scoring for example. 2/1 for Sturridge to score when he was on a >1 goals per game ratio streak, good value. but +EV?

Bossian

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 27, 2019, 04:58:25 AM

Quote from: Haunebu on September 27, 2019, 04:27:29 AM

All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.

In every gambling website everything is based on luck. No strategy works and the house is always winner. You are right about role of luck and I don't think there is any need to discuss about it. But the chance of win in different websites are not equal. Some parameters like the house edge and Expected value should be considered to maximize your chance and minimize the house chance.
A website has 5% house edge cannot be compared with the one gas only 1% house edge. Sometimes two websites have equal house edge. But one of them offers you some bonuses that cause you to have a more chance.
I repeat again, the house is always winner and I know it.

We are talking about sports betting though, it's possible to get value and win in the long term, very difficult but possible, cannot be compared with roulette or this kind of game when your chances to win in the long term are a big fat 0.

But as I said above about sports betting, most Bitcoin bookmakers don't offer value, you have to bet in fiat on bet365, Betfair, etc.

Bossian

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I doubt you'll find value on Nitrogen or Fairlay which are two most famous bookmakers allowing to bet in Bitcoin. Both I believe use Pinnacle as their odds provider but add juice to the odds, very difficult then to get any value.
Both houses are reliable and trustworthy though.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: Haunebu on September 27, 2019, 04:27:29 AM

All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.

In every gambling website everything is based on luck. No strategy works and the house is always winner. You are right about role of luck and I don't think there is any need to discuss about it. But the chance of win in different websites are not equal. Some parameters like the house edge and Expected value should be considered to maximize your chance and minimize the house chance.
A website has 5% house edge cannot be compared with the one gas only 1% house edge. Sometimes two websites have equal house edge. But one of them offers you some bonuses that cause you to have a more chance.
I repeat again, the house is always winner and I know it.

Haunebu

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All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.

Its simple really. If you manage to have an above average ROI over an extended period of time, you will stand to profit in the long term. This is how so many successful punters succeeded in the long run without focusing too much on the math behind it all.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: Heisenberg_Hunter on September 24, 2019, 02:12:54 PM

The positive expected value is the value which the bettor can win. If in a dice game you are placing 0.0001 as bet amount and setting up the multiplier as 2x, here your +ve EV would be like

(0.0002*0.5) - (0.0001*0.5) = 0.00005BTC

Here,

0.0002BTC if your Amount won
0.5 is your multiplier or your winning probability
0.0001BTC is the Amount which you might lose on a negative roll

Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?
As far as I know when the probability of wining and losing are equal, the expected value is zero.
According to what you calculated the expected value is zero which implies to higher chance of wining. But in the example you make the probability of wining is 50%.

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Quote from: MonsterV on September 25, 2019, 04:13:01 AM

Quote from: Vaculin on September 24, 2019, 05:34:25 PM

To be honest, when I bet on sports, I don't think of the EV analysis anymore, as most of the time I bet on odds that is higher than 100% of return.
Odds changes depending on what I see that could give me a good chance of winning so those analysis are not really important to me, in addition, I am not a kind of gambler who are very serious with what i'm doing, I just gamble, if I loss, I forget it, if I win, I enjoyed it.

This kind of analysis I think are only more important to those who like to take sports betting a serious venture and a long journey.

same, bro. I enjoy sports betting even if I win or lose because my goals are different from most people who only make money on bets. I enjoy it because I like sports games that I bet so that every profit and loss is not a problem as long as I enjoy my gambling. Analysis is indeed important to me but my analysis is not complex in betting, just a simple analysis of teams that play without deeper analysis such as EV analysis.

Sports betting is hard to analyze basing on the EV only, unlike with dice and other games where it follows the same system, a house edge and chance of winning based on the odds, and in dice there is no such thing as undervalued or overvalued, or a trap line, and that would change the whole scenario if we measure it using any system to determine its EV.

ralle14

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It's rare to find odds that are +EV in sports betting and when there's one the profits are mostly small. Some options i've used to guarantee positive expected value is through promotions(free bets, bet backs, contests) ,arbitrage betting and on parlays if the sportsbook doesn't have the cash out feature. It takes a lot of effort to do this constantly because if you'll do arbitrage on sportsbook you could get limited very quickly if they caught on to your betting patterns.

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Quote from: Vaculin on September 24, 2019, 05:34:25 PM

To be honest, when I bet on sports, I don't think of the EV analysis anymore, as most of the time I bet on odds that is higher than 100% of return.
Odds changes depending on what I see that could give me a good chance of winning so those analysis are not really important to me, in addition, I am not a kind of gambler who are very serious with what i'm doing, I just gamble, if I loss, I forget it, if I win, I enjoyed it.

This kind of analysis I think are only more important to those who like to take sports betting a serious venture and a long journey.

same, bro. I enjoy sports betting even if I win or lose because my goals are different from most people who only make money on bets. I enjoy it because I like sports games that I bet so that every profit and loss is not a problem as long as I enjoy my gambling. Analysis is indeed important to me but my analysis is not complex in betting, just a simple analysis of teams that play without deeper analysis such as EV analysis.

STT

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Would it be possible to calculate using this measure when you are lucky and 'ahead of the game' because I think people should always know when to take their profits or least reduce their bet so that they are not setting themselves to lose all their prior gains on a bad result.
Unless the odds are wrong I wouldnt expect to gain overall on average, only if I have superior knowledge of the games over the ongoing popular betting and in that case I'm beating my fellow bettors. The house will always take a cut from the odds on every game they operate so should not be losing most of the time.

Quote

This kind of analysis I think are only more important to those who like to take sports betting a serious venture and a long journey.

Seems like it would be a way to measure performance and be honest with yourself about what kind of capital is fair to keep betting. If the returns are negative and likely to be negative then it should be small amounts until it can be proven otherwise.

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Quote from: Botnake on September 25, 2019, 12:41:45 AM

I've been researching about how to increase our chance in winning in sports betting but I never come across with expected value discussion, I think it's kind of technical that is complicated to understand for a typical gambler.

What I learn in sports betting is to set a decent bankroll and should have a proper bankroll management as well.
Picking a winning bet is also another thing, this requires analysis but if you will win at least 57% by the end of your journey, you should be profitable with proper bankroll management, I guess that's it.

Yes this is what a goal of all gamblers should be but almost all of us during the way we change and bet without reasoning at all leading us to huge bankroll loss.An expected value is the amount of money you will win if you bet a certain amount of money in a specific event which is the net winnings after this bet is won if it is won.

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I've been researching about how to increase our chance in winning in sports betting but I never come across with expected value discussion, I think it's kind of technical that is complicated to understand for a typical gambler.

What I learn in sports betting is to set a decent bankroll and should have a proper bankroll management as well.
Picking a winning bet is also another thing, this requires analysis but if you will win at least 57% by the end of your journey, you should be profitable with proper bankroll management, I guess that's it.

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