Expected value in sports betting - page 2.

leowonderful

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Quote from: Ranly123 on September 24, 2019, 07:39:48 PM

Well explained. Now I know how to define EV and +EV depending on how the prizes will be. Is it all depends on the house on how much the EV or +EV will be?

Yes, and you can actually use EV to determine house edge in most instances. Most traditional games in casinos end up being -EV, though there are times when certain sites have promotions where they lower edge to 0% (been a while since I've seen something of the sort). This is also why you shouldn't ever gamble more than you can reasonably afford to lose, because you're going to lose over time with almost all games.

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Quote from: Heisenberg_Hunter on September 24, 2019, 03:12:54 PM

Here you need to have a good knowledge on Math from your high school to understand the Expected Value and to implement them in your games which you might try out.

Expected Value :

An Expected Value is a value which is used to measure your profit above the placed bet. The EV can simply be called as the value which will be won or lost by the betting person in a game of gambling. For instance we can consider like it can be a future expected value which would be inferred from the bet. The EV can simply be calculated by the difference between the multiplication of Amount won and winning probability and the Amount lost and losing probability.

Positive Expected Value :

The positive expected value is the value which the bettor can win. If in a dice game you are placing 0.0001 as bet amount and setting up the multiplier as 2x, here your +ve EV would be like

(0.0002*0.5) - (0.0001*0.5) = 0.00005BTC

Here,

0.0002BTC if your Amount won
0.5 is your multiplier or your winning probability
0.0001BTC is the Amount which you might lose on a negative roll

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 24, 2019, 01:16:29 PM

Is it possible to have a "Positive expected value (+EV)" in a sport betting?

Yes.

Well explained. Now I know how to define EV and +EV depending on how the prizes will be. Is it all depends on the house on how much the EV or +EV will be?

Vaculin

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Winding down.

To be honest, when I bet on sports, I don't think of the EV analysis anymore, as most of the time I bet on odds that is higher than 100% of return.
Odds changes depending on what I see that could give me a good chance of winning so those analysis are not really important to me, in addition, I am not a kind of gambler who are very serious with what i'm doing, I just gamble, if I loss, I forget it, if I win, I enjoyed it.

This kind of analysis I think are only more important to those who like to take sports betting a serious venture and a long journey.

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 24, 2019, 01:16:29 PM

What is the exact meaning of "Expected Value (EV)"?
What does "Positive Expected Value (+EV)" imply to?
Is it possible to have a "Positive expected value (+EV)" in a sport betting?

P.S: I created this topic due to the discussion that followed the post below.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52539807

Good article to read up in speaking with Expected value term. https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/expected-value-in-sports-betting/

Getting up some definition on that link

" It is the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose on each bet placed on the same odds time and time again. Positive expected value (+EV) implies profit over time, while a negative value (-EV) implies a loss over time. Obviously, the higher the EV goes, the better value the bet. "

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Here you need to have a good knowledge on Math from your high school to understand the Expected Value and to implement them in your games which you might try out.

Expected Value :

An Expected Value is a value which is used to measure your profit above the placed bet. The EV can simply be called as the value which will be won or lost by the betting person in a game of gambling. For instance we can consider like it can be a future expected value which would be inferred from the bet. The EV can simply be calculated by the difference between the multiplication of Amount won and winning probability and the Amount lost and losing probability.

Positive Expected Value :

The positive expected value is the value which the bettor can win. If in a dice game you are placing 0.0001 as bet amount and setting up the multiplier as 2x, here your +ve EV would be like

(0.0001*0.5) - (0.0001*0.5) = 0BTC

Here,

   0.0001BTC is your Amount won
   0.5 is your multiplier or your winning probability
   0.0001BTC is the Amount which you might lose on a negative roll

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on September 24, 2019, 01:16:29 PM

Is it possible to have a "Positive expected value (+EV)" in a sport betting?

Yes.

hosseinimr93

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Activity: 2380

Merit: 5213

What is the exact meaning of "Expected Value (EV)"?
What does "Positive Expected Value (+EV)" imply to?
Is it possible to have a "Positive expected value (+EV)" in a sport betting?

P.S: I created this topic due to the discussion that followed the post below.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52539807

Topic: Expected value in sports betting - page 2. (Read 395 times)