Failed DCA Strategy When Buying Bitcoin - page 4.

ajiz138

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Quote from: tvplus006 on May 31, 2023, 12:10:19 PM

I think that anyone who is financially able to invest a million dollars every day should definitely know about the DCA strategy. It is only obvious that he decided to sell all his bitcoins and this decision may be related to financial problems in real business, or it is possible that he invested in something else, for example Pepe.

They should already understand the DCA strategy, especially with a large enough amount. I think they know what strategy is needed in the bitcoin investment, with the funds being transferred, they might not sell it, just split it into several wallets or have something they want. plan while we can only speculate what they are doing with the bitcoin.

But I don't think that with millions of dollars just to invest in this meme coin (pepe) is far beyond my reasoning because people who understand bitcoin investment usually won't take risks on large amounts of shitcoin.

savetheFORUM

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Quote from: South Park on June 02, 2023, 06:40:14 PM

Quote from: Oshosondy on May 28, 2023, 01:30:53 PM

The mistake is that he did not knew that 2022 will never be a good year for bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies, but if you go back to history, we know that history will juxtapose into the future which was what happened again in 2022 just like 2018 when the price of all coins crashed.

He continued DCA at the wrong time and sold at the wrong time when he supposed to buy more or wait. Supposing he is able to wait again till 2024/2025 he would have gained massively.

In anything we are investing on, we should learn more about it before investing at all.

The fact is there is not a foolproof strategy to make money on the markets, even something as simple as buying and holding our bitcoin can produce losses if people cannot perform the strategy for long enough, DCA is a good strategy but it requires a huge commitment to keep investing no matter what the price is at the moment, while at the same time you can hold your assets for long enough so they can reevaluate themselves, and this is something the majority of the investors out there cannot do.

Those with paper hands cannot hold on to their assets if they see the market crashing even if it's just a minor crash, they simply start panicking right at the moment they see the value of their bought Bitcoin falling and they start selling right at that moment thinking that they will lose everything they have which doesn't actually happen because the price eventually goes up again.

And doing DCA doesn't mean that someone needs to buy even when the price is going up if they have already bought at a lower price, they should simply keep holding what they've bought instead of buying at a higher price.

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Quote from: South Park on June 02, 2023, 06:40:14 PM

...DCA is a good strategy but it requires a huge commitment to keep investing no matter what the price is at the moment, while at the same time you can hold your assets for long enough so they can reevaluate themselves, and this is something the majority of the investors out there cannot do.

I would say that DCA does not make sense to do it in Bitcoin for less than one cycle, that is, for less than 4 years, because otherwise it can happen to you like the case explained in the OP that caught the last rise of the previous cycle and all the way down. To do it right, he should have continued doing DCA until August 2025.

South Park

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Quote from: Oshosondy on May 28, 2023, 01:30:53 PM

The mistake is that he did not knew that 2022 will never be a good year for bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies, but if you go back to history, we know that history will juxtapose into the future which was what happened again in 2022 just like 2018 when the price of all coins crashed.

He continued DCA at the wrong time and sold at the wrong time when he supposed to buy more or wait. Supposing he is able to wait again till 2024/2025 he would have gained massively.

In anything we are investing on, we should learn more about it before investing at all.

The fact is there is not a foolproof strategy to make money on the markets, even something as simple as buying and holding our bitcoin can produce losses if people cannot perform the strategy for long enough, DCA is a good strategy but it requires a huge commitment to keep investing no matter what the price is at the moment, while at the same time you can hold your assets for long enough so they can reevaluate themselves, and this is something the majority of the investors out there cannot do.

JoyMarsha

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I don't think the owner of the bitcoin address sold the Bitcoin he bought at a high price for that loss price. The price loss is a huge amount to hold on to that someone can easily lose when he knows that he can get his losses back if he is patient.

Someone who believes in Bitcoin can't pump in a huge amount in bitcoin, only to later sell it all at once, not even selling a little of his bitcoin at a loss but choosing to sell all. That sounds weird and unbelievable to think of.

What I can grab out of this, is the owner of bitcoin transferred the said amount of Bitcoin to another bitcoin address.

shivansps

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If he invested in the long term, DCA is a good strategy and he'll probably win
We well know that until he didn't sold them, he did't lose. Bitcoin is so volatile he should't forget about it
If this person continues on DC-averaging in, probably, he'll will take profit in the future. Hold for the long term
In any way I wish good luck to this person, it's a big money

KingsDen

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Quote from: palle11 on May 30, 2023, 10:25:49 AM

Quote from: KingsDen on May 29, 2023, 06:53:31 PM

Might also not be an investor let alone a DCA investment. It may be a random person trying to use bitcoin transactions as a payment escape channel.

I looked at the transaction history and it doesn't look to me he is an investor who intends to DCA for hodling purpose, no he is not. I think this is not DCA strategy because we can see barely 24 hours interval for another transaction at which time btc may as well be at same price from the first transaction for interval of each.

What I think is that his action is suspicious and may be hidding some fund from an illegal transaction.

Exactly my thought when I just looked up for the transaction. The dollar cost averaging system of investment is one that has somewhat a fix time of investment (weekly or monthly), or strategically when it is obvious in the market that a buy order needs to be placed.
The transaction doesn't look genuine to me.

Quote from: Husires on June 01, 2023, 04:02:47 AM

What I am surprised is that countries like El Salvador made similar decisions to buy Bitcoin and we discovered that they did not make a good amount of profit, or at least they could have made more profit if they counted the purchase date, so understanding the appropriate strategy for you and the trading period is much more important as the DCA Strategy is for long-term trading and using it With the intention of obtaining a profit within less than 5 years, it may mean a loss.

El Salvador although is a country and not an individual, so there story might be different. However, El Salvador didn't sell at lost, rather they held to their bitcoin and at a time started daily DCA which I don't know the process for now.

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What I am surprised is that countries like El Salvador made similar decisions to buy Bitcoin and we discovered that they did not make a good amount of profit, or at least they could have made more profit if they counted the purchase date, so understanding the appropriate strategy for you and the trading period is much more important as the DCA Strategy is for long-term trading and using it With the intention of obtaining a profit within less than 5 years, it may mean a loss.

The strategy has so far proven to be successful for those who want to buy and wait. Whoever bought during the year 2017 lost during that period, but it is an excellent investment if he keeps it until the year 2021 and so on.

tvplus006

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Quote from: safar1980 on May 28, 2023, 01:20:55 PM

...Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

I think that anyone who is financially able to invest a million dollars every day should definitely know about the DCA strategy. It is only obvious that he decided to sell all his bitcoins and this decision may be related to financial problems in real business, or it is possible that he invested in something else, for example Pepe.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: safar1980 on May 28, 2023, 01:20:55 PM

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

You're missing the main point here: Why do you think this person sold?

Just because they emptied his wallet, or because it appears they stopped DCA? Maybe they just started to do DCA with another account... who are we to know.

Also to note is a few of transactions leads to coins not ending up on exchanges, a few examples looked at the biggest transfers:

4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
2,000 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qpp3v9k4g5hqjfztextp5nn9808lcru9j8m4n2p

This already accounts for 12K of 17K Bitcoin that wasn't sold. It looks like they just consolidated numerous inputs into a few different addresses for now.

bitzizzix

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I don't care for the guy, because I don't think DCA's strategy will fail as long as it aims for the long term. And it doesn't matter what the market conditions are because the goal is as long as they haven't hit the highest price or have the maximum profit they will never sell it, and always take advantage of the dips that occur, and also to increase buying.
and for those who fail maybe because they don't really understand the DCA strategy and also don't have too much knowledge about everything related to bitcoin, because in my opinion the DCA strategy is the best. As long as it is done patiently and consistently and makes purchases and sales at the right time.

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on May 30, 2023, 06:22:59 PM

we don't know all the angles in this story, hence, can't deduce what really happened. but on the note about the use of DCA, the knowledge really won't assure that you can get profits. it is still on how you implement such strategy during your actual trading.

DCA is the best in any kind of situation. But how you are going to make profits depends on your ability to calculate the total spend amount, increase or decrease of value, analysis on when it's the best time to sell and what will happen to the market after this period of time and which will be the best option in that situation.
So basically profits from DCA depends on choosing the right time to sell and will to hodl until you see potential profits. So what helps you do that? Knowledge for sure.

Yamane_Keto

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DCA Strategy is a strategy for beginners who do not know how to invest or do not have enough experience and resources to be able to communicate with advisors, do you think that someone who has access to a million dollars a day will not have advisors to know if this is the right time or not?

The goal may be to achieve a loss so that he does not have to pay taxes in those currencies, or to try to achieve an accounting loss, or for any reason, but this does not indicate that his strategy is stupid or wrong. This address cannot be inferred as a reason for failed DCA Strategy When Buying Bitcoin.
I googled it and didn't find any information about bc1qw0pswznckx7s6tjmd2f5hrx4q6kc5nyrdxku50 does anyone know?

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: tjtonmoy on May 30, 2023, 03:42:48 PM

DCA does not always guarantee you profits. Good planning with market understanding on when to sell and the will to hodl long enough gives you profit. I don't know the reason behind that man's intention to sell, but what he did was wrong if you are willing to get profit from your DCA investment. Hasn't he calculated the total investment and about profit and loss? If he had, then it was a foolish decision, or he was forced to do it. But the lesson to learn from this is, only buying doing DCA doesn't give you profits if you are not able to make the right decision at the right time. This is quite interesting story and we have a lot to learn from it.

we don't know all the angles in this story, hence, can't deduce what really happened. but on the note about the use of DCA, the knowledge really won't assure that you can get profits. it is still on how you implement such strategy during your actual trading.

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Quote from: safar1980 on May 28, 2023, 01:20:55 PM

The owner of this address bought a million dollars worth of Bitcoin every day from August 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qw0pswznckx7s6tjmd2f5hrx4q6kc5nyrdxku50
Received:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 ins)   first: 2021-07-25   last: 2022-12-28
Sent:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 outs)   first: 2023-01-01   last: 2023-03-05
Profit from price change:   -239,395,601.9 USD

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

Volatility is really one of the disadvantages of bitcoin, and if that person implemented Dca, it is because he believes in Bitcoin so much that he was able to buy such a large amount of bitcoin.

And there is no doubt that that person is rich, because the value of 460M$ is a huge amount of money, so if it hasn't been sold and if the value of Bitcoin becomes 100k$ on the day of the Bull run, he will still get his money back losses.

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DCA also needs a perfect timing, and he should already know this by having such money.
Maybe its just a paper loss, and selling at a big loss is not a good idea at all. Better to wait for the next bull market and for sure he will gets more as BTC is aiming for a new ATH. After this big correction, we might see a better price. I’m doing DCA and I’m playing long, next ATH is the target after all.

tjtonmoy

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DCA does not always guarantee you profits. Good planning with market understanding on when to sell and the will to hodl long enough gives you profit. I don't know the reason behind that man's intention to sell, but what he did was wrong if you are willing to get profit from your DCA investment. Hasn't he calculated the total investment and about profit and loss? If he had, then it was a foolish decision, or he was forced to do it. But the lesson to learn from this is, only buying doing DCA doesn't give you profits if you are not able to make the right decision at the right time. This is quite interesting story and we have a lot to learn from it.

inthelongrun

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There is a possibility that the person does not have enough funds to risk in order to continue his daily DCA. This is the first time I heard about someone making a DCA daily. I don't think it makes sense. Maybe a weekly DCA as the shortest span. And DCA system is better used with a long-term goal.

Besides, people should at least familiarize things first before venturing especially if we are talking about big amounts. Over the years, bitcoin's halving is always consistent so far as where the price goes. You don't do a DCA when the price is at its highest or at least make sure that your DCA is enough to cover until the next bitcoin halving. What happened to this guy who is doing a DCA during a major bull run and was only capable of doing it for a few months.

Recovery is still possible though if the person is able to hold it until next year or by 2025.

erep

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 30, 2023, 06:17:08 AM

Most likely this is money laundering, whoever spends huge amounts of money to buy bitcoin at the rate of a million dollars a day surely knows a lot about bitcoin and the DCA strategy.

Also, it is unlikely that whoever has this huge money needed it to start a new investment or found a more profitable investment!!! It is not reasonable to lose 239 million dollars to start a new investment!!! This is suspicious and utterly stupid.

He might have sent the bitcoin to another wallet, as it is highly unlikely that he would have sold at such a large loss.

I have checked several recipient wallets from the main wallet transfer transaction, strongly indicating that he distributed balances to be sent to various wallets, assuming they might be money laundering or he deliberately transferred assets because the main wallet was indicated to be unsafe for asset deposits.

If he just moves assets to various other wallets then there is no word "loss" 239 million dollars of primary asset, recorded loss is just accumulated based on the purchase price so he still holds the same amount of BTC but his assets are stuck in multiple wallets, he may have accumulated all BTC assets in one portfolio, because there's no way he could throw away 239 million dollars for any reason.

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Quote from: KingsDen on May 29, 2023, 06:53:31 PM

Might also not be an investor let alone a DCA investment. It may be a random person trying to use bitcoin transactions as a payment escape channel.

I looked at the transaction history and it doesn't look to me he is an investor who intends to DCA for hodling purpose, no he is not. I think this is not DCA strategy because we can see barely 24 hours interval for another transaction at which time btc may as well be at same price from the first transaction for interval of each.

What I think is that his action is suspicious and may be hidding some fund from an illegal transaction.

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