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Topic: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws) - page 17. (Read 43254 times)

legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
I want decentralized security which does not have the power vacuum. Only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work has that.

http://www.links.org/files/decentralised-currencies.pdf states that currencies based on PoW can't be decentralized because
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To match this to the notion of “decentralised” (i.e. lacking central authority), the consensus group must be, at least, all participants in the currency. This does not present any real problem when that group is known. For example, it would be possible to define the group as “all people currently in the United States”– where the currency would be something akin to the US Dollar. Assuming the majority decide to behave honestly (as seems likely, after all, that is what happens now), then they should have no difficulty in forming consensus on who has how much money at what time. However, the most general notion of decentralisation does not admit such re-strictions. After all, in some sense, placing any such restriction simply pushes the central authority back a layer: instead of controlling the currency, the authority controls membership of the consensus group. A system like this must allow any entity to participate, and to join and leave the scheme at will. And here lies the problem. If you can never know who is in the scheme (bear in mind that knowing who is in is also a consensus problem!), then you can never get agreement.

So a whitepaper that proves that "only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work has that" is very welcome. Looking forward to read it...
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1000

Why would anyone invest in new 20nm rigs that don't make ROI?



That's not a possible scenario it is a reality: They have been ordered and PAID FOR many months in advance (and are sold out) so, from now to mid-June, they all will be mining ... at an incremental loss. It is a FACT from which inevitably derives the consequence that mining will not be profitable any longer and no one will do it after the initial period of realization. What happens then to the block chain and Bitcoin?

As for the projections on that chart, sorry but that just makes no sense other than a line in a "chart". FACT is that the price hasn't moved (except significantly down of late) at all since the rebound from the China debacle. FACT, not absurd projections -in which you obviously choose to believe for absolutely no reason at all-.

As for Bitcoin being anonymous and non-taxable, that simply wouldn't be viable. You cannot have it both ways: Amply accepted as currency and unregulated. You can't. You won't. There are legal requirements for any institution that deals with currency, called reserves. I'm sure you have heard of the "stress tests" bank all over the world are subject to since the big crisis of 2007? You cannot sell or loan "air" as currency (banks have done that long enough and we all know the potential consequences). BTC, like any other currency, will have to comply with those requirements to protect society against insolvency... or worse. So yes, it IS ALREADY regulated AND yes you already have to pay taxes on any gains, just like any other business or investment... and what is this, Bitcoin -or any other cryptocurrency- should be OK to avoid taxes? Taxes are bad? who pays for social security, medicare, infrastructure, government? Is this supposed to advance us towards a more fair, responsible society or is it a wild west, everyone for his own kind of initiative? Boggles the mind, really.

full member
Activity: 862
Merit: 100
OP forgot to add one of Bitcoins and almost all cryptocurrencies' flaw. There is no way of incentivising running a full node. With the blockchain growing larger, less people are willing to run a full node and so in the future, we would have a very large market cap but only a few full nodes. This could become a target and a point of failure of Bitcoin. There are 2 originally coded altcoins I know that incentivises running a full node but I'm not going to promote them.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work can solve the entropy security issue. Period. I have thought about this deeply.

Oh, I thought u were an open-minded person. Sorry for disturbing u.

It is a fundamental mathematical insight. Someday I need to write a whitepaper on this. (Any mathematician readers who have some time to do this now?)

I am open-minded to that which isn't already evidently mathematically irrefutable.

Essentially proof-of-stake requires you to move to trust and reputation and call that "security". But that is not the type of security I want, because it ends up as "winner takes all". It is just democracy and fiat again. I want decentralized security which does not have the power vacuum. Only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work has that.

I sent a private message to Adam Back (inventor of Hashcash the precursor to Satoshi's insight) and ask if he can assist.

Adam Back discusses centralization due to pools at 25 min, regulation at 30min, and non-anonymity coin taint fungibility at 49 min:
http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e77-the-adam-back-interview/#.UuK0zWTTnrk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Back
http://www.cypherspace.org/adam/
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
Only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work can solve the entropy security issue. Period. I have thought about this deeply.

Oh, I thought u were an open-minded person. Sorry for disturbing u.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
I have already explained upthread that Proof-of-Stake is not secure because essentially you must trust those with the largest stake (and it can't distribute new coin out to the people through mining in a competitive manner).

It seems to me that the creator of Nxt fixed PoS by adding Transparent Mining. He also invented another "mining" algo that doesn't use "coin-days".

You see they tried to solve it by invoking trust and reputation "knowing who all the miners are", but I already explained upthread that is just another low entropy (i.e. low security) result:

I strongly posit proof-of-stake will be proven insecure. It lacks the expanding entropy of proof-of-work.

Trust via reputation (i.e. social capital) or stake (i.e. capital share) inherently degrades to centralization and low entropy outcomes.

Only Satoshi's Proof-of-Work can solve the entropy security issue and remain decentralized. Period. I have thought about this deeply.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
I have already explained upthread that Proof-of-Stake is not secure because essentially you must trust those with the largest stake (and it can't distribute new coin out to the people through mining in a competitive manner).

It seems to me that the creator of Nxt fixed PoS by adding Transparent Mining. He also invented another "mining" algo that doesn't use "coin-days".
legendary
Activity: 1536
Merit: 1000
electronic [r]evolution
Pedantic and irrelevant part of our discussion don't you agree? There is gold throughout the universe. And we are not close to tapping all the gold on earth. Mankind's technology for tapping gold on earth and throughout the universe will continue to improve. Malthusians always annoy me, because throughout the history of the world they have never been correct.
No I think it's very relevant to this discussion. Even if we get the ability to move gold to earth from other planets at a cost less than the worth of the gold, there's still a finite limit to how much we can bring to earth because there's a limit to how much we can increase the mass of the Earth before we risk destabilizing the orbit. It doesn't matter how large that limit is, the fact is there's a limit. Of course there's always a risk that we learn of a method to turn stone into gold, and that is why cryptocurrency is so amazing, we can use mathematics to ensure that the limit will never be undermined.

And yes, I meant to say centralized debasement is is the problem, I have corrected that mistake in my original post.

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A few pools control more than 51% of the hash processing power. A cartel of them could eliminate the requirement to use Proof-of-Work (PoW) and so then we are right back to fiat again
And the moment they attempted to change any such critical aspects of the system would be the moment everyone lost faith in Bitcoin and then those pools would have doomed their entire business to failure. But I don't think that will happen because when ever a pool gets near 50% of the hashing power we always see a rebalancing of power by concerned parties. The network seems to have a natural tendency to ensure that no one entity will ever gain the majority of the hashing power. And now that we have decentralized pool software it's even less likely that one entity will ever gain more than 50% of the hashing power.

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It is impossible to have a finite supply of anything without a top-down controller stealing the thing.
Why, explain to me the exact reason why that would be true.

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And the mining of gold is thus competitively available to everyone.
How so? I surely cannot afford to buy the mining equipment required to mine gold. I might be able to sift out a few flakes of gold worth a few dollars if I spend hours panning down at a river, but I doubt anyone would be willing to buy a few specks of gold from me. Gold mining is a highly centralized industry which requires large and expensive machinery. So why is it ok when gold mining is so centralized but when it happens to Bitcoin its the end of the world? I designed the mini-blockchain scheme because I was worried about the centralized mining og Bitcoin, but that doesn't mean I think it will lead to the downfall of Bitcoin and it doesn't mean I've lost my faith in Bitcoin. I accept Bitcoin for what it is.

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Quote
You know that even gold is debased at 2 - 2.5% per year.
You do know that there is a finite amount of gold on the Earth and that eventually all of it will be mined?

Pedantic and irrelevant part of our discussion don't you agree? There is gold throughout the universe. And we are not close to tapping all the gold on earth. Mankind's technology for tapping gold on earth and throughout the universe will continue to improve. Malthusians always annoy me, because throughout the history of the world they have never been correct.

I don't necessarily have anything against a coin with perpetual debasement, as long as the cost of creating the new currency is equal to or more than the value of the new currency, and it happens in a decentralized fashion. Like you said, the main problem is decCentralized debasement, and it's because it costs them very little to generate the new currency and because they hand it out to a small group of banks instead of to the average joe. I don't necessarily care if my savings go up in value or now, what I care about is that my saving HOLD THEIR VALUE. The reason people save their wealth in gold is because they trust gold to be a secure store of value, and the reason they trust it is because they know gold cannot be created out of thin air.

Then you and I are very much in agreement.

The same thing essentially applies to Bitcoin, I know that bitcoins are very difficult to create and it requires a lot of electrical energy to generate them.

A few pools control more than 51% of the hash processing power. A cartel of them could eliminate the requirement to use Proof-of-Work (PoW) and so then we are right back to fiat again (even if controlled by corporations, those corporations are beholden to the government and can be "nationalized"). I am confident that this is the coming outcome for Bitcoin. How could it go any other way given the facts presented in the OP?

The stone money used on the island of yap is a good example of why it's important for a currency to be hard to create, but it's also an example of why perpetual debasement can work so long as the currency is hard to create. It was extremely difficult for them to create those huge donut shaped stones, so every time a new stone coin was created the market didn't freak out because the market knew a lot of energy was burnt up in their creation. And there was essentially no limit to how many coins they could create, so long as they didn't find an easy and cheap way to craft the stones into a donut shape then they could keep making them and adding new coins into circulation without worrying about price inflation. You can even have an increasing money supply while the value of the currency is increasing at the same time, in fact that's exactly what has been happening with Bitcoin for the last few years.

Great example! And I'm giddy to see you write that, since you were disagreeing a few months ago when we debated in your mini block chain thread. I really admire people can refine their philosophies. Very few people can do that. I expected you might be one, since your mini block design is excellent.

Fundamentally I agree with you that perpetual debasement can be a good thing, what I don't agree with you about is that a finite money supply is a bad thing.

It is impossible to have a finite supply of anything without a top-down controller stealing the thing. Ponder that. You would essentially have to steal human innovation, e.g. to stop technological progress at mining gold.

They both have their advantages, gold will always be trusted so long as the amount on this planet always remains finite.

Gold is not trusted because the total is not finite. It is trusted because it takes real effort to mine it, thus the supply can't be debased egregiously in corrupt ways, i.e. it won't go hockey stick tomorrow as Bernanke did. And the mining of gold is thus competitively available to everyone. Humans want a fair game of competitive opportunities not a corrupt one of top-down slavery. Actually many humans want socialism where they get everything equally without competition, but this is a failed economic system (The government and society is $150 trillion in global total debt and I estimated upthread only $241 trillion in global net worth but much of that $91 trillion balance is concentrated among the upper 1% and much illiquid such as real estate.  Cry )

Bitcoin will always remain relevant for the same reason. Obviously there are things which make a better currency than gold, just as there may be cryptocurrencies better for use as a currency. But that doesn't mean gold or bitcoin cannot be used to conduct trade, and the finite nature of gold and bitcoin doesn't make them some sort of evil "corporate top-down controlled fully compliant government's" money". How you reach such an absurd conclusion is beyond me. The centralized nature of mining could take away some of the decentralization of Bitcoin, but that's just about the limit of it.

Once you centralize the mining, then you centralize which transactions will be blocked (by the full clients), and everything else in the protocol can be changed by the top-down controllers at-will. (perhaps you will next argue that the users running simple clients have the power to vote on which protocol they will support so see below)

You are right back to democracy and fiat again. They can then debase at-will as well.

You have not technically refuted the Threats section of the OP which drive Bitcoin to a centralized control. If Bitcoin can be taken over by vested interests, then we are back in the same predicament, just a different set of slave masters.

Decentralized means the vested interests can't take control, only contribute in a decentralized competition. Centralized means it gets swept into the power vacuum of democracy.

Democracy = the majority force their will on the minority. Or actually all the minorities force their will on the majority. Democracy binds everyone together in a monolithic outcome and a power vacuum.

But that's not a "flaw", the people with the most resources will always have the most power, that's just a simple rule of the world and it will aways exist.

The difference is that with decentralization, the small guy always can compete for part of the pie (no one is bound together in a monolithic outcome). With centralization, the winner takes all.

Rich hate decentralization, because they can't possibly invest in all those small opportunities that can double capital in a month. In decentralization, the small guy grows his capital at a faster percentage rate than the rich guys.

Of course we can attempt to minimize the effectiveness of their resources but they will always have an advantage by having more resources at their disposal.

With the altcoin design proposed in the OP, the rich can not take it over and it will remain decentralized.

People will always be attracted to Bitcoin because of its features, but there's no reason Bitcoin can't coexist with other cryptocurrencies which improve upon the basic design. You need to learn that there is a place for everything, stop looking at things with such a black and white perspective. Bitcoin is not flawed, it simply is what it is, and if you want something different then build it and prove to us how much better it is.

Did I say Bitcoin can't exist also? Please read the entire thread more carefully. I wrote that Bitcoin's decentralized premise is threatened and flawed.
legendary
Activity: 1536
Merit: 1000
electronic [r]evolution
Quote
You know that even gold is debased at 2 - 2.5% per year.
You do know that there is a finite amount of gold on the Earth and that eventually all of it will be mined?

I don't necessarily have anything against a coin with perpetual debasement, as long as the cost of creating the new currency is equal to or more than the value of the new currency, and it happens in a decentralized fashion. Like you said, the main problem is centralized debasement, and it's because it costs them very little to generate the new currency and because they hand it out to a small group of banks instead of to the average joe. I don't necessarily care if my savings go up in value or not, what I care about is that my savings HOLD THEIR VALUE. The reason people save their wealth in gold is because they trust gold to be a secure store of value, and the reason they trust it is because they know gold cannot be created out of thin air. The same thing essentially applies to Bitcoin, I know that bitcoins are very difficult to create and it requires a lot of electrical energy to generate them.

The stone money used on the island of Yap is a good example of why it's important for a currency to be hard to create, but it's also an example of why perpetual debasement can work so long as the currency is hard to create. It was extremely difficult for them to create those huge donut shaped stones, so every time a new stone coin was created the market didn't freak out because the market knew a lot of energy was burnt up in their creation. And there was essentially no limit to how many coins they could create, so long as they didn't find an easy and cheap way to craft the stones into a donut shape then they could keep making them and adding new coins into circulation without worrying about price inflation. You can even have an increasing money supply while the value of the currency is increasing at the same time, in fact that's exactly what has been happening with Bitcoin for the last few years.

The problem with government fiat money is not necessarily the fact that they debase it, it's that they can cheaply and easily put new currency into circulation and they don't have to hand it out in a decentralized fashion, they simply hand it out to large member banks. And they create so much that they not only prevent price deflation, they debase the money supply to such an extreme degree that they cause consistent price inflation. That is the type of perpetual debasement I dislike, excessive and stupid debasement used to fund wars and other nonsense that no one wants. Bitcoin was designed precisely to make that sort of thing impossible, it was supposed to be a finite resource in a digital form, like digital gold in other words. That is the fundamental philosophy behind the way Bitcoin is designed.

Fundamentally I agree with you that perpetual debasement can be a good thing, what I don't agree with you about is that a finite money supply is a bad thing. They both have their advantages, gold will always be trusted so long as the amount on this planet always remains finite. Bitcoin will always remain relevant for the same reason. Obviously there are things which make a better currency than gold, just as there may be cryptocurrencies better for use as a currency. But that doesn't mean gold or bitcoin cannot be used to conduct trade, and the finite nature of gold and bitcoin doesn't make them some sort of evil "corporate top-down controlled fully compliant government's money". How you reach such an absurd conclusion is beyond me. The centralized nature of mining could take away some of the decentralization of Bitcoin, but that's just about the limit of it.

But that's not a "flaw", the people with the most resources will always have the most power, that's just a simple rule of the world and it will aways exist. Of course we can attempt to minimize the effectiveness of their resources but they will always have an advantage by having more resources at their disposal. People will always be attracted to Bitcoin because of its features, but there's no reason Bitcoin can't coexist with other cryptocurrencies which improve upon the basic design. You need to learn that there is a place for everything, stop looking at things with such a black and white perspective. Bitcoin is not flawed, it simply is what it is, and if you want something different then build it and prove to us how much better it is.

Edit: added extra paragraph to expand on my explanation.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
I don't think we can conclude that about investment. The smaller altcoin will be more volatile but probably appreciate faster overall if you invest in the correct altcoin that is the winner yet you could lose it all if it fails or you invest in the wrong one. And the tax you pay on Bitcoin capital gains and net worth could approach 90% if we return the tax rates we saw during the Great Depression.


Fair enough. We both agree that both the government coin and the crypto coin should do well. Exactly how well and for how long is not that relevant to the topic at hand.
  
In the past one could argue that sticking with the mainstream was the most conservative and safest option. Safety at this point doesn't exist any more. Massive risks on the horizon. Choose your poison. I prefer freedom.

I choose both. Hard to know exactly how fast the knowledge economy will grow or exactly how hard the crash from the debt bubble will be. Best to hedge and invest in both.

I am not yet convinced that bitcoin's network effects (while real) are insurmountable. Its status as top centralized coin is vulnerable from the ground up, via, a significantly more nimble competitor, (perhaps a CPU only coin without anonymity). It is also vulnerable from top down via a cryptosystem rolled out by the banks/governments/corporations.  Nevertheless, it is definitely a serious contender to take the position of top centralized/government coin. If it become clear that bitcoin will take this role I will buy a few.  


 

newbie
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hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
My question for any any developer of an altcoin (especially one with new and innovative features) is why not try to capture both markets? Why not release a bank coin version and a crypto coin version. Just because bitcoin is first does not guarantee it status as the official bank coin of the future.

I argue in the OP that network effects can not stop a decentralized altcoin, because we don't need to go change all the servers on the internet. The network effects for financial institutions adopting Bitcoin is real and probably already insurmountable. So I think the door is wide open for a decentralized altcoin, but it is already closed for a centralized competitor to Bitcoin. Rpietila has been correct on every point, except that he doesn't appear to acknowledge that Bitcoin will be the centralized coin. I hope we can get his response.

Selfish people deserve the corporate top-down controlled fully compliant government's coin. Wink

I imaging we will all need some government coin.
Government coin will probably be the better short term play. Crypto coin the superior long term investment.

Agree we do. I don't think we can conclude that about investment. The smaller altcoin will be more volatile but probably appreciate faster overall if you invest in the correct altcoin that is the winner yet you could lose it all if it fails or you invest in the wrong one. And the tax you pay on Bitcoin capital gains and net worth could approach 90% if we return the tax rates we saw during the Great Depression. The government and society is $150 trillion in global total debt and I estimated upthread only $241 trillion in global net worth but much of that $91 trillion balance is concentrated among the upper 1% and much illiquid such as real estate.  Cry

In the past one could argue that sticking with the mainstream was the most conservative and safest option. Safety at this point doesn't exist any more. Massive risks on the horizon. Choose your poison. I prefer freedom.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
In other words, Bitcoin might grow very fast over next several years and become unified with the mainstream economy. Yet there would be this smaller thing growing faster that eventually overtakes the mainstream economy by 2032.

I am becoming more and more convinced of this bifurcated future.

I also think a bifurcated future is likely.

One currency for the physical economy (government coin) that is not anonymous (pseudo-anonymity the government can easily breach will be tolerated).
Another currency for the knowledge economy (crypto coin) anonymous and untraceable.

There is likely only to be one big winner in each category. Both of these winners look poised to do incredibly well.  Remember to keep you records in order if you invest in the bank coin. The taxman will be along shortly to take his huge chunk.

My question for any developer of an altcoin (especially one with new and innovative features like anonymity) is why not try to capture both markets? Why not release a government coin version and a crypto coin version. Just because bitcoin is first does not guarantee it status as the official bank coin of the future.

Selfish people deserve the corporate top-down controlled fully compliant government's coin. Wink

I imaging we will all need some government coin.
Government coin may be the better short term play. Crypto coin the superior long term investment.




hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Nice. Nxt needs only anonymity... We r working on that.

Nxtcoin is proof-of-stake correct? Which means top-down controlled not decentralized. See below...

The problem with your estimate is, is that you forget Bitcoin isn't the best coin.

The other altcoins like Feathercoin and Peercoin use less energy/need less miners/have 30times faster transaction times/have more coins/better in every category. Might take another year or two, but the coins with the most benefits will be the higher echelon coins, specifically not Bitcoin(unless someone completely changes everything about it to make it better in every way shape and form).

Bitcoin is only extremely more popular for it's capitalization on early mover and early promoter in the beginning. Other coins will easily be worth more.

Bitcoin is the best coin in the eyes of rich people like me. The energy and miners need be there (the coin economics do not work without it), the confirmations are not reliable if they are much faster than Bitcoin's. "Have more coins" is a joke.

It is possible that there are fringe uses for other coins in the future, but to me it looks unrealistic that all the other coins combined would reach even 25% of Bitcoin's market cap. Main reason why anyone would think otherwise is that they don't have as many bitcoins as they would like to have, and want to amend that the easy way.

I have already explained upthread that Proof-of-Stake is not secure because essentially you must trust those with the largest stake (and it can't distribute new coin out to the people through mining in a competitive manner). Yet we also see the design of Bitcoin has pushed it to be top-down controlled also. So essentially Bitcoin and and PoS are moving towards the same endpoint, but Bitcoin has the market lead. So we can expect in the future, the Bitcoin pools will just cartel and do away with paying for PoW and simply add the transactions round-robin in a fully top-down controlled system that is of course fully compliant with G20 edicts. They can then keep flat transaction fees without affecting mining security. Then all the Threats disappear (and we lose anonymity and submit to the G20 control) including the bubble burst threat disappears.

Bitcoin Take Over Threats

  • Coming $Trillion(s) bubble burst will demand world government intervention & cooperation [1] (Bernie Madoff is so much smaller)

As it looks right now, Bitcoin is going to win and it will be the corporate top-down controlled fully compliant government's coin.

The very first thread I started on this forum is looking to be the accurate final outcome. Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch. The technical details have become more clear to me since that thread, yet the broad premise remains true in my mind.

Bitcoin Killer Altcoin

The Bitcoin killer will thus have at least the following features.

  • provably cpu-only mining with botnet resistance (current proof-of-stake can't redistribute new coins to masses & I posit it isn't secure)
  • built-in anonymity (to minimize non-anonymous users)
  • small, reasonable perpetual debasement
  • zero transaction fees (with economic transaction spam resistance)
  • economically limited pool sizes
  • oblivious shares
  • selfish-mining fix
  • mini block-chain design
  • faster 1-confirmation block chain, e.g. 1 minute instead of Bitcoin's 10 min delay, if the orphan rate can be contained

The proposed altcoin would attempt to remain decentralized (not top-down controlled), anonymous, and keep mining among the people. In other words, congruent with the freedom internet (e.g. self-published websites, running your own server, etc), not the Google, Facebook, Yahoo, NSA, G20, dollar hegemony corporate-fascist top-down controlled internet.

It would not kill Bitcoin (any time soon). It would be the alternative economy. If the alternative economy will play a key role in this coming Knowledge Age with 47% of existing jobs to be replaced by computer automation according to an Oxford study, then over time it might grow to be larger than the mainstream economy which will be diminishing. I assume the Knowledge Age will be significantly decentralized, e.g. 3D printing objects at home instead of going to a store to buy manufactured goods.

In other words, Bitcoin might grow very fast over next several years and become unified with the mainstream economy. Yet there would be this smaller thing growing faster that eventually overtakes the mainstream economy by 2032.

I am becoming more and more convinced of this bifurcated future.
legendary
Activity: 1536
Merit: 1000
electronic [r]evolution
I think most people would agree with you that we need more anonymity and more ASIC resistance and more scalability. But that's why we have alt coins to solve these problems. All 3 of those problems are already solved and being developed as we speak. But that does not mean the resulting coins which incorporate these ideas will "kill" bitcoin. Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency designed by Satoshi and will never be killed so long as the network remains secure. It has too big of a foothold in the market to ever be killed by an alt coin regardless of how "perfect" that alt coin is.

There are also some things in your list of suggestions which are subjective "improvements" which conform to specific monetary theories and not purely technical theories. For example these two points:
Quote
small, reasonable perpetual debasement
zero transaction fees (with economic transaction spam resistance)

I don't know how long you're going to argue about this perpetual debasement nonsense. It has to get old at some point. There are already several coins with perpetual debasement built into them, what more do you want? Bitcoin will never change to  match your concept of how money should work. And your suggestion about zero transaction fees is completely socialist imo, there is no reasonable way to separate a spam transaction from a real transaction without fees. People who are willing to pay get what they want faster than those who cannot pay, it's as simple as that and you're concern over spiraling fees is completely irrational imo.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
All of this is quite technical, caustic and full of assumptions that do not have to happen.

Note I added two items (Spiraling Transactions Fees tragedy of the commons and 51% attack gets proportionally less expensive over time) to the Threats section of the OP.

All of this is quite technical, caustic and full of assumptions that do not have to happen.

For example, there's an implied foregone conclusion that BTC's price is going much, much higher before "being taken over". This is a total fallcy. There's absolutely no reason or even indication price of BTC is going much higher... if higher at all. BTC is a side-show of the present world economy that has no significance or importance at all to the financial powers of the world that quickly dismiss it because, no matter what kind of extrapolations are made, even the totally wild one, BTC will only represent, in best case scenarios, an extremely minimal (insignificant, really), part of that financial system.

I mentioned back in November, the shocking disruptive effect of Bitcoin taking over the world's wealth thus being unlikely that society (governments) won't fight back by attacking Bitcoin. If the projections below are correct then the government MUST attack Bitcoin to bring it into taxation (and confiscation) compliance. Bitcoin could continue to grow as a top-down controlled currency with no anonymity and a public ledger of all financial transactions.  Shocked  Cry Note Bitcoin is essentially top-down controlled now, with a few pools controlling most mining power and tx fees being set top-down to avoid the problems I've mentioned about tx fees in the OP.

A least squares fit projection line puts the price at $100,000 in 2016, which will be in excess of $1.5 trillion market cap. At 10X price appreciation every 13 months, the projection is $1 million price and $18+ trillion market cap in 2017.

However there are other possible technical interpretations:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3469380
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3560319
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3584735
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3916390
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3932761

Note global net worth is roughly $241 trillion - $150 trillion debt = $91 trillion actual net worth when the debt is written down, and much of that is concentration in the upper %1 of the wealthy and not liquid, e.g. real estate.

Doomsday scenarios for the world economy notwithstanding, which I will not even enter, from a working perspective I see a very imminent threat to the "BTC system" that, in my layman's opinion, forecast it's possible doom WITHIN THE YEAR. And here, probably, I lack a lot of answers that I would like explained, of course.

Here's the conundrum: The new tech, 20nm-based mining rigs will be fully delivered, en masse,  by Summer thus making the block chain more efficient than ever and the rewards more spread than ever... to the point that, using any calculator and assuming a level of increased difficulty of 50% a month, it will not be cost effective to mine for anyone (the new rigs will never make roi, and they will lose money after costs from day one). Therefore, when difficulty reached 30 million roughly by September, who will pay the pied piper? who will do the mining? who will maintain the block chain itself? Oh the answer that more efficient/cheap machines will come out is simply absurd because they will not be -even if technology would allow it- cost effective to manufacture.

Why would anyone invest in new 20nm rigs that don't make ROI?

Furthermore, there's no guarantee not even a reason for the BTC price to go higher. As a matter of fact, as we have seen the effect of recent developments, reasons abound to justify the price to remain stagnant or go significantly lower. Even before the Gox/Bitstamp debacle, the price had stayed barely above the level of the previous (China) debacle, for almost 3 months at or closely around $800 per BTC, so it is pretty safe to assume that price of BTC itself in the market will not influence any of that scenario that is pretty imminent.

Food for thought?

See the least squares fit chart link above. The price has languished before after corrections, yet it moves up after falling below the trend line after sufficient delay.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
The Bitcoin killer will thus have at least the following features.

  • provably cpu-only mining with botnet resistance (current proof-of-stake can't redistribute new coins to masses & I posit it isn't secure)
  • built-in anonymity (to minimize non-anonymous users)
  • small, reasonable perpetual debasement
  • zero transaction fees (with economic transaction spam resistance)
  • economically limited pool sizes
  • oblivious shares
  • selfish-mining fix
  • mini block-chain design
  • faster 1-confirmation block chain, e.g. 1 minute instead of Bitcoin's 10 min delay, if the orphan rate can be contained

Nice. Nxt needs only anonymity... We r working on that.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283

Failure to understand Bitcoin ALREADY 'cost Investors Billions'.

But that's cool.  More $$$ for me and I started to capitalize on my 2011 speculation in a relatively big way at the beginning part of 2014.

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