Where is Julian Assange? And will he be proven alive before 2017, or least in the following 10 months?
“We're happy to announce (a bit prematurely due to sleep schedules) that /r/WhereIsAssange is the subreddit of the day for 11/23/16.“ Yes, that's how big WhereIsAssange got in the last few days as its primary focus is the whereabouts/status of Julian Assange after his internet disconnection and disappearance from the public eye last month. So, where is Julian Assange? And will he soon be proven alive?
Will Julian Assange be proven alive before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/.
In case you missed it, here is /r/WhereIsAssange Summary of the events:
The WikiLeaks twitter made several cryptic "pre-commitment" tweets several hours before announcing Julian Assange's internet was cut. Since then, we have received no definitive proof of life, just recycled pictures and videos, statements from people saying things like, "I've seen him, he's fine," then a call-in to an obscure South America open source conference where Julian didn't seem to always be responding to the person asking questions, and most recently a video interview with John Pilger that had no establishing shot of both of them in frame and is edited at numerous points.
Will Julian Assange be proven alive before September 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/.
Thus, /r/WhereIsAssange is asking for an unedited video proof of life, preferably with a newspaper showing the current date, and a signed PGP statement using the Wikileaks Editorial Board public key that has been published since 4/2015 (matching the PGP fingerprint listed on the WikiLeaks twitter bio). As for Fairlay, any proof accepted by the media and Reddit users is enough. But, will that proof come in the following weeks (before 2017), or in the following months (before September 2017). Well, make your opinion at Fairlay.
Topic: Fairlay-best markets-best offer (Read 12001 times)
ATP BARCLAYS WORLD TOUR DOUBLES - ROUND ROBIN
P-H. Herbert/N. Mahut vs. H. Kontinen/J. Peers
F. Lopez/M. Lopez vs. R. Klaasen/R. Ram
Bitcoin to top 800 USD before January 1
This market resolves to Yes, if the price of Bitcoin according to the Coindesk Priceindex will be greater or equal to 800 USD at any time after the market creation and before 01.01.2017. If www.coindesk.com/price/ should be unavailable or manipulated in an obvious way, a similiar reputable source will be used. The resolution date of this market may be accelerated. Bets matched after the antedated resolution date will be voided.
This market resolves to Yes, if the price of Bitcoin according to the Coindesk Priceindex will be greater or equal to 800 USD at any time after the market creation and before 01.01.2017. If www.coindesk.com/price/ should be unavailable or manipulated in an obvious way, a similiar reputable source will be used. The resolution date of this market may be accelerated. Bets matched after the antedated resolution date will be voided.
The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?
The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.
The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”
Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.
“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.
By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.
Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.
With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.
The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).
The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.
The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”
Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.
“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.
By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.
Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.
With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.
The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).
Will there be a clear electoral college winner for 2016 President on Election Day?
Based on electoral college votes on election day, there are three possible outcomes. This market will solely be based on the results of the popular vote by state - any and all subsequent defections by electors (Congress) will take place on December 19th, and thus will not impact this market.
Based on electoral college votes on election day, there are three possible outcomes. This market will solely be based on the results of the popular vote by state - any and all subsequent defections by electors (Congress) will take place on December 19th, and thus will not impact this market.
Looks like free money
One candidate has a majority with 270 or more..... -233.1
400 MBTC Available
Will there be a clear electoral college winner for 2016 President on Election Day?
Based on electoral college votes on election day, there are three possible outcomes. This market will solely be based on the results of the popular vote by state - any and all subsequent defections by electors (Congress) will take place on December 19th, and thus will not impact this market.
Based on electoral college votes on election day, there are three possible outcomes. This market will solely be based on the results of the popular vote by state - any and all subsequent defections by electors (Congress) will take place on December 19th, and thus will not impact this market.
The Oscars 2017: Which movies are gaining, and which movies are losing their chances for the 89th Academy Awards?
The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.
One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.
Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?
The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.
As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.
On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?
The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.
One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.
Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?
The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.
As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.
The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.
On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?
Next French President: Hollande’s popularity falls to 4%, will Alain Juppe use this?
French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.
Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.
Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.
Next French President, Predict at Fairlay
The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.
So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.
Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market.
French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.
Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.
Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.
Next French President, Predict at Fairlay
The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.
So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.
Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market.
Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?
We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.
So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.
Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.
Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.
Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.
Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.
Other battleground states:
Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.
So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.
Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.
Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.
Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.
Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.
Other battleground states:
Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
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