Topic: Fed rate adjustment on March 19/20 2024 what will happen? (Read 344 times)

I know that the high rate fees of BTC will drop down but some BTC investors leave BTC investment to altcoins base on the high fee, but what they saw recently surprised them because they thought that the rate fees will remain high like Ethereum but the high rate has reduced to allow BTC investors to continue making big profits from their investment.

I know that this good news will increase the population of BTC investors when bear run occur because, investors like any coin that has low fee charge in the process of transaction so that it will allow them to pay the numbers of workers they want to pay with BTC or any amount of BTC they want to buy from the market.

Dollar index has risen about 2% since the first week of March, its not yet lost its higher level of movement.   Thats the one I watch but its a macro market and FIAT isnt reliable as a natural market its politics partly too.   So the Federal reserve despite speculation is not likely to drop rates just yet, I do wonder if they do it at all this year and surprise many with a harder stance.    The problem is inflation which they hope to curtail is so elusive and appears in many different sectors separately.

Housing and rising prices there is not contained enough to have FED believe inflation is falling in the hard way it needs to.   In the end they are nowhere near to reversing all the QE done previous so the idea inflation is ever defeated seems like nonsense to me but even by their own logic there are reasons for them not to reduce rates or allow attempts at easier growth policy.

But what is "too long"? Because if the cut it prematurely, then re-inflation will have a high probability of happening, especially now that inflation is very sticky even though the rates are high. That would make Jerome Powell raise interests and tighten more aggressively. The "higher for longer" policy is Powell's hope that there's a possibility to have a "soft-landing", then cut rates. But I believe a crash must happen before they could cut the rates and pivot to Quantitative Easing. If the unemployment rate does not surge while they achieve their target of less than 2% CPI, then they could start cutting rates, but not before that.

and this happened in 2007-2008 the cuts took too long and we crashed.

A rate cut is actually not needed now, nor will it be needed in June because inflation remains and will remain to be sticky. Plus everyone is very concerned with CPI, that they forget the other important data to watch, the unemployment rate. Jerome Powell's most important decisions will depend on that because if it surges, he's going to be forced to cut rates and turn on the money printer before the economy crashes into a long depression. But if the unemployment rate remains very low, then rates will also remain higher for longer.

No he did exactly what was done back in 2007-2008 a longer flat period.  the cut was needed now not in june.  I smell a repeat of 2008.

maybe 🤔 it will help btc more than I think.

THAT was actually what the Federal Reserve should have done two years ago. Tighten aggressively, even if that causes a recession, WHILE the people still have their savings intact. Going through it would be easier because they still have their savings as a fall-back. Currently, the people have less to no savings, more debt, and high interests rates with less money in circulation. An economic collapse now would not cause a Recession. It would be worse, a Depression, and it's harder to recover.

BUT let's hope that Jerome Powell is truly in control, and that he will succeed in accomplishing the "Soft Landing".

Thanks for putting this across, but I see things differently here. Bitcoin cannot be falling this much due to the FED's expected rate cut. It never moved this way when the inflation figures have been rising again in recent weeks, so the start of the FED's cutting can't cause the huge fall we are expecting now. What I believe is causing this is the much-expected and needed retracement, it is long overdue judging by the way Bitcoin has been strongly rising almost unchallenged for weeks. It has to fulfil the law of gravity like any other market/asset, so it will reach certain levels before it can meet strong support that would be effective enough to cause a rebound. Also, the breach of strong support at $67,629 has aggravated the fall recently.

As for FED, the Rate decision will happen today and tomorrow, and I still do not believe they will resolve to any rate cutting soon. We can decode that through the bitting inflation that has rekindled itself in the US recently. The recent releases of the CPI, PPI, and PCE are not encouraging as they show that inflation is moving higher again. They can't be that careless to cut the rate at a time like this, they would want to watch more and hold. For this, I expect a Hold of the Federal Fund's Rate, just as economists expect the same as seen below.

I think the price went lower because we just had a massive runup with lots of buying from the ETFs and we aren’t seeing the same inflows continue. I doubt it has anything to do with fed rates decisions. That being said, they want to lower but obviously can’t with inflation starting to tick up again. They should raise and try to pop the AI bubble, but they won’t do that either because we’re already seeing cracks forming in housing and private debt. So I think they’ll do nothing but issue a statement saying they’re keeping an eye on inflation.

If you are right and if the price went lower because of this, then I think it is going to be quite tough for us to get to a point where it could work any differently. I think it is important to focus on what we can do, and in this case I feel like the most important thing to do we have in our hands is just wait it out.

Because, if OP is right and this drop was due to this adjustment, then we need to remember that they are not going to increase it, the only viable two options would be either keep it as it is or just lower it. If they keep it as it is, is that a reason to drop it? I mean some may think so, but I think if we increased to 70k+ with the same interest, we should go back up again anyway, but if they drop it then it would be insanely well for crypto.

I believe the right question should be, will Jerome Powell be brave enough and be more aggressive with the rate hikes. I'm very confident that the answer to that is, NO. He will maintain the current interest rate, which is currently good because it's higher than the core inflation rate, and "wait for more data".


Currently? But what can Jerome Powell do except maintain the current interest rate. But if core inflation surges above 5.5% - the current interest rate, it might be necessary for the Federal Reserve to do another rate hike, which could affect all markets.

Too much funny money being created = More inflation and higher BTC prices, no surprise there. We seem to have two (or more) conversations developing:

1) Does the "Fed rate adjustment on March 19/20 2024" really matter when the big picture calls for a historically huge collapse of the Global economy?
2) Will the Fed (or any other "economic fundamentals") affect the ability of BTC to continue the 2024 Bull run and stay near/above the ATH before going much higher?

Zoom out Bitcoin's chart to the maximum, then try to find the chart for the total M2 money supply and compare it with Bitcoin's market cycles. There's a correlation. If the money supply expands, Bitcoin is in a bullish cycle, of it contracts, it goes in a bearish cycle.

But the current surge is the only bullish cycle during a period of contraction. That probably means it's not sustainable, BUT it also means Bitcoin will surge like it surged during 2015 when the money supply expands.

When bitcoin increased to 70k$, people predicted bitcoin would soon reach 80k$ this month, but in the past 2 days bitcoin is entering a correction phase and many people started to change their predictions and believe that bitcoin will decrease below 60k$. As holders, we should not care about whether bitcoin increases or decreases in the short term, we should focus on accumulating and only sell when the price reaches the target, IMO.

Regarding the OP's question, I think the market has recently stopped paying too much attention to the Fed's recent decisions. If there is a decline, bitcoin will quickly recover immediately.

So you are suggesting that all Bitcoin traders/investors/HODLers are keeping an eye on the FED meetings and they make buying/selling decisions on whether FED will increase or decrease the interest rates? I find this hard to believe. The FOMO phase is over and it is impossible for the market to support a price level above 70K for a long time. Therefore most traders are selling BTC right now and sell traders are buying.
The "fear of missing out" is replaced with "fear of selling at a lower price" so everyone wants to sell now. This leads to a lower price. I think that this price drop has the potential to go below sixty thousand dollars. Anyway, I'm just going to HODL and wait for the next bull run.

The more I think about it, the less it makes sense. Henry Ford comes to mind:
He said that a long time ago, and I think it's still valid.

I like to think "the economy" depends on companies producing things, and people working for them. I expect most people to think like this.
But in reality, "the economy" depends on the amount of money being created by central banks, and it's terrible that basically everyone's life can be influenced literally at the flip of a switch.

This is also the main reason why I like Bitcoin. "Fix the money, fix the world"!

You are right about the central banks, but it should be emphasized that the eyes of the majority of the world are focused on the US central bank, no one even mentions (at least not too much) the European Central Bank or perhaps the central bank of Japan or the UK. It seems to me that all these banks are just waiting for what the FED will decide, and then align their decisions with that.

The world is much more centralized than many can imagine.

I'm more worried about the fact that the entire economy not only depends but even relies on Central Banks' decisions.

A proof that cryptomarket is also affected when the economy or stock market dropped, we are in the same cycle.
Well, considering that Bitcoin is already over bought and maybe this is just a normal correction with Bitcoin and no connection at all.

If they will increase the rate again, I'm sure many will be affected and yeah the problem with inflation and crisis is still here, there's another threat from Russia for a WWIII and that's more alarming.

Jerome Powell won't hike, but he also won't cut rates. Rates will be maintained and it will be a continuation of the "higher for longer" narrative.


The Federal Reserve is not in control, inflation is. The decision for rate cuts will depend on if actual inflation has truly gone down, OR if the unemployment rate surges uncontrollably.