Topic: [FINISHED] Bet on bitcoin future price here (July 1st, 2011) - page 2. (Read 13758 times)
how long is this going to last ? i can't believe im the closest one to the value with my 0.17 bet from 05-26
You are correct that a late entry can lose money even if they guess correctly, but that is only true if they are late enough and there aren't many losing bets. That is intentional.
I'm pretty sure it is not possible for a late bet to cause an earlier winning bet to lose money. Here is my example:
A bets 2 BTC 10 days in advance, loses
B bets 2 BTC 10 days in advance, wins
C bets 10000 BTC 1 day in advance, wins
The pot is 10004 BTC.
I would get my 2% fee = ~200 BTC, winners get 98% = ~9804 BTC
A gets nothing (loser!)
B's weight is 10 days * 2 BTC = 20
C's weight is 1 day * 10000 BTC = 10000
Total of weights = 10020
B's share is 20/10020 = 0.2% (19.57 BTC, a 10x gain)
C's share is 10000/10020 = 99.8% (9784 BTC, oops!)
Of course, in reality there will be a lot of losers, and only a couple winners, so I expect all winners will do well as long as they didn't bet an absurdly high number of BTCs. Doing that only helps me
It's possible that there IS some way to game the system, but I haven't thought of one. This is an experiment. If anybody can see a way to cheat, definitely post your idea (or just go ahead and cheat, and I'll try to figure out what to do about it).
I'm pretty sure it is not possible for a late bet to cause an earlier winning bet to lose money. Here is my example:
A bets 2 BTC 10 days in advance, loses
B bets 2 BTC 10 days in advance, wins
C bets 10000 BTC 1 day in advance, wins
The pot is 10004 BTC.
I would get my 2% fee = ~200 BTC, winners get 98% = ~9804 BTC
A gets nothing (loser!)
B's weight is 10 days * 2 BTC = 20
C's weight is 1 day * 10000 BTC = 10000
Total of weights = 10020
B's share is 20/10020 = 0.2% (19.57 BTC, a 10x gain)
C's share is 10000/10020 = 99.8% (9784 BTC, oops!)
Of course, in reality there will be a lot of losers, and only a couple winners, so I expect all winners will do well as long as they didn't bet an absurdly high number of BTCs. Doing that only helps me
It's possible that there IS some way to game the system, but I haven't thought of one. This is an experiment. If anybody can see a way to cheat, definitely post your idea (or just go ahead and cheat, and I'll try to figure out what to do about it).
Quote
c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps)
Does 'the pot' include ALL bets or only loosing bets? I believe if the pot is ALL bets (typically parimutuel) then late winners can LOOSE (shown below) and if late bids are high enough, early winners can loose.
A 1 btc LOOSING bid, 10 days in advance
B 9 btc WINNING bid, 10 days in advance (90% risk/confidence)
C 10 btc WINNING bid, 1 day in advance
Payout if pot=TOTAL (winning bids + loosing bids)
A = 0 btc
B = 20*90/100 = 18 btc (100% gain)
C = 20*10/100 = 2 btc (80% loss)
I believe it is only fair to return the winning wagers and then calculate the profits amongst the winners.
Payout if pot=LOOSERS (loosing bids only)
A = 0 btc
B = 9+1*90/100 = 9.9 btc (10% gain)
C = 10+1*10/100 = 10.1 btc (1% gain)
Ah, I was looking for this thread last night. Maybe my prediction will turn out to be true after all.
Somebody is submitting a lot of bets in the last few hours. I think all the "nearby" prices now have at least one winner registered.
I see bets at $16, $19, $20, $21, $22, and $23. Probably all by the same person who would probably rather I not bump this thread (sorry!)
Pot is now 7.2 BTC
I see bets at $16, $19, $20, $21, $22, and $23. Probably all by the same person who would probably rather I not bump this thread (sorry!)
Pot is now 7.2 BTC
I wish I ran into this thread earlier, but none the less, dacoinminster, I'm happy you've shared your thoughts with us. Your use of the decimal component to set the bid position is simple and clever.
Thanks! There have been some websites which have sprung up to fill this need since I started this thread, but there are still 6 unclaimed bitcoins in the pot, so I updated the thread title to hopefully get some attention that this contract will be ending soon.
I wish I ran into this thread earlier, but none the less, dacoinminster, I'm happy you've shared your thoughts with us. Your use of the decimal component to set the bid position is simple and clever.
Finally are you going to pick the winners in a range of +/- $0.5 around the last, or +/- 5% as you suggested later?
To be fair with people who don't bother reading the whole thread, rules should be set once and for all, but that's your call.
Is the limit inclusive? For instance, if I have one bet at $5 and one at $6, and the final price falls on $5.5, are both of my bets included in the +/- $0.5 range and both accounted for to calculate my share in the payoff?
To be fair with people who don't bother reading the whole thread, rules should be set once and for all, but that's your call.
Is the limit inclusive? For instance, if I have one bet at $5 and one at $6, and the final price falls on $5.5, are both of my bets included in the +/- $0.5 range and both accounted for to calculate my share in the payoff?
The 5% thing was a "maybe for next time" idea. The rules are set in post #1 and will not change, except as needed for clarification.
Regarding inclusive bets, that is a good question which is not addressed in post #1. I doubt that situation will arise, but if it does, I think I HAVE to make them inclusive. It's much better to have an extra winner than to have someone be exactly $0.50 away and be excluded by a technicality.
Post #1 has been updated accordingly. It now says:
Quote
a) 98% of the pot will go to the winners (those within + or - $0.50 of the final value, inclusive)
Finally are you going to pick the winners in a range of +/- $0.5 around the last, or +/- 5% as you suggested later?
To be fair with people who don't bother reading the whole thread, rules should be set once and for all, but that's your call.
Is the limit inclusive? For instance, if I have one bet at $5 and one at $6, and the final price falls on $5.5, are both of my bets included in the +/- $0.5 range and both accounted for to calculate my share in the payoff?
To be fair with people who don't bother reading the whole thread, rules should be set once and for all, but that's your call.
Is the limit inclusive? For instance, if I have one bet at $5 and one at $6, and the final price falls on $5.5, are both of my bets included in the +/- $0.5 range and both accounted for to calculate my share in the payoff?
Holy cow, and we're already almost there! $34 may not be high enough!
Earlier in this thread, I jokingly said that if you want to speculate on prices higher than $99 by July 1st, just buy bitcoins. Now I have to decide if I can provide a mechanism to do so. Any ideas? Should I just expand the range to include values up to 1.99 BTC? 2.99 BTC? (Obviously that would only apply to bets posted after the change is announced).
Earlier in this thread, I jokingly said that if you want to speculate on prices higher than $99 by July 1st, just buy bitcoins. Now I have to decide if I can provide a mechanism to do so. Any ideas? Should I just expand the range to include values up to 1.99 BTC? 2.99 BTC? (Obviously that would only apply to bets posted after the change is announced).
Somebody placed a bet on $34 bitcoins on July 1st. Wow.
I just sent in my guess. It will make some of you choke on your drink.
Why? Because it is so low?
Why not close the bidding at some point before the prediction date?
I suppose I could do that if I do another round. I don't want to change the rules partway in.
I would like to point out that ALL the early guesses were too low if current prices hold
Why not close the bidding at some point before the prediction date?
And, it's up: https://bitoption.org
You can pay 4 BTC for guaranteed right to buy at $12 on August 4 at bitoption.org right now: https://bitoption.org/securitiesList
(Just a plug. Web interface coming soon)
(Just a plug. Web interface coming soon)
I personally think that most of you guys have numbers that are too low, but I promised I wouldn't bet my own bitcoins here. Sigh.
At the blockexplorer.com link in post #1 I see two bets not listed here (0.11 and 0.12)
Pot is now 5.658 BTC
Pot is now 5.658 BTC
0.09 sent.
So anything over $10 is only bet in whole dollar USD right?
No you could bet on USD/BTC of 10.50 by sending 1.105BTC.
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