Topic: [FINISHED] Bet on bitcoin future price here (July 1st, 2011) - page 4. (Read 13758 times)

All bets are publicly visible here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV

Probably anybody who bets should also post it here so that previous betters get notified by the forum, and this thread stays more visible to other potential betters who might give you their money

This is interesting. I plan to play, gotta get some strategery first.

Another question.  Will you post updates of the bets you receive with BTC amount and guess?  For the sake of transparency, this may be a good idea. 

50 BTC sent. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

I can't think of any reason why it woudn't be safe to place bets now. Let me know if you guys can think of any other problems.

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Hash: SHA1

I'm always up for an experiment.  dacoinminster, you can send your
50 BTC bond to 168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

I've signed with my OTC key so people who don't know me can
decide whether I'm trustworthy
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I just realized that there is no incentive to be one of the first people to bet. The first 5 people to post in this thread that they placed a bet of any size (include your address and the amount) will receive 0.1 BTC sent to the betting address from my personal wallet (not from the futures pool), to kick things off.

Sure. Obviously the closer we get to July 1st, the more confident someone can be about a bet they place. If I had no time component, all the bets would come in at the end.

Consequently, a bet placed 10 days before July 1st is weighted at half the weight of a bet placed 20 days before July 1st. If you bet 30 bitcoins one day before July 1st, you would receive the same winnings as another winner who bet 1 bitcoin 30 days before July 1st.

Make sense?

Note: my previous post in this thread has now been updated.

Can you explain how the following would work with an example? 


Thanks.

Very good point. This is NOT a good way to hedge against a bitcoin collapse (such a hedge would have to be denominated in a currency other than bitcoins, by definition). Betting on anything from a 50% drop to a big gain, however, should be quite profitable if you are right.

Of course nobody has placed any bets yet. I'm looking into posting a bond of my personal bitcoins with someone to prove my honesty.

Update: See the first post in this thread for current bond information.

Interesting concept, although I think there's a fundamental flaw in that the payout is in BTC.  This rewards long bets more than short bets, and would probably make it unprofitable to bet on a severe decline in BTC, even if you thought one was likely to happen.  You can see an example of the problem at http://www.bitcoinfrenzy.com/2011/05/problems-with-proposed-bitcoin-futures.html.

Since there is no bitcoin futures market, I'm starting one. Speculate now on the value of bitcoins on 7/1/2011.

This is an experiment, so please don't bet your life savings.

Rules:

1) All bets will be tracked at this newly created address in a currently-empty wallet: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV
2) The "bitcents" represent your bet on the USD price of bitcoins on July 1, 2011 at noon U.S. pacific time. Examples:
      a) A bet of 1.13 BTC sent to that address is a bet of 1.13 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $13 USD on July 1st
      b) A bet of 12.08 sent to that address is a bet of 12.08 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $8 USD on July 1st
      c) A bet of 0.15 sent to that address is a bet of 0.15 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $15 on July 1st
      d) You can use sub-cents if you want. A bet of 0.015 BTC is placed on $1.50 per bitcoin
3) Winnings will be put in one pot and distributed as follows:
      a) 98% of the pot will go to the winners (those within + or - $0.50 of the final value, inclusive)
      b) 2% of the pot will go to me
      c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps)
      d) Winnings will be returned to the sending address, so use the real bitcoin client, not a managed wallet
4) The reference price on July 1st will be determined by me, using my browser on MtGox, at exactly noon PST pacific time. If for some reason I am unable to do this, I will rely on MtGox records and/or forum members posting the price in this thread. I will do my best to be fair, and I will not be betting any of my own bitcoins, so I should be impartial.
      e) I will post the final price and who I think the winners are and how much they should get here for community vetting. I will allow for comments to accumulate over the following weekend, and then pay out on Monday Tuesday following the holiday weekend if there is no great scandal.
5) If an excessive amount of bitcoins are bet, I will probably seek a trusted forum member to hold some of the bitcoins so they aren't all in my care. My first choice would be _mndrix, followed by GavinAnderson. I would consider other highly trusted members if neither of them want to do it. Edit: See bond info below
6) New: As an incentive to kick things off, I'm offering 0.1BTC each to the first 5 betters: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.msg144375#msg144375

Obviously placing multiple bets at different prices is going to be a common strategy.


Update: Michael Hendrix (of Coinpal/Coincard fame) has agreed to hold 50 of my personal bitcoins as a bond against any mishaps with the money. You can see where he posted in the thread below with his PGP signature agreeing to hold my bond. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

For posterity, here is the email I sent him: