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Topic: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] - page 6. (Read 2659 times)

legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
I'm very much newbie & have almost zero knowledge on mining. Had some researched & I would like to assist newbie so that they can understand how things happen.
- 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes.
- Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest.
- To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day.
- On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen.
- When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again
I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question.
Thread- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/why-bitcoin-mining-difficulty-is-increased-2344801
No need to be confused, good explanation. Wink
More miners = more hashrate = more blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be increased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average)
Less miners = less hashrate = less blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be decreased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average)



@RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty.
That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks

Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases.
Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster.

In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other.

Exactly. Finally, the most profitable miners will remain. That includes different parts:

- most important: electricity price
- mining equipment and its efficiency
- expenses for cooling
- expenses for location
- expenses for staff
- expenses for taxes
...

Less profitable miners will shut down when it's not profitable for them anymore.



reason: mojo
Well, that's not enough for a Merit.  Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 1498
Merit: 360
You work in Insurance? Message me.
I am picking 610.562 as it is the rounded average guess of all the participants of this game in the German section. Wink
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 2174
Professional Community manager
I'm making a new post as I've already edited my current post and do not want to edit my number into it.
There's 30 days and 14 hours left till 2020. So: (30 x 24) + 14.44 = 734. in minutes = 734.44 x 60 = 44040
On average a block is mines every 10 minutes, although some sites average it to 9.5 minutes, in the coming four weeks I'll leave the average at 9.8 minutes.
So, 44040/9.8 = 4493.9 blocks
Current block height: 606120, adding 4493.9 ~ 610,614

I'm a newbie, so this is a wild prediction, also there is a little time irregularity due to posting time.
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 2174
Professional Community manager
@RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty.
That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks

- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?
Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases.
Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster.

In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other.
hero member
Activity: 1358
Merit: 850
The probable first block for of 2020 will be 610535
As per the normal calculation, we have 144 blocks each day. It's almost 6:00 AM CET (Edit- It was when I started writing this post, it took me almost 30 minutes to write this post.)
We have 30 days & 18 hours to go.
30*144 + 18*6 = 4428
The current block is 606110
Probable block will be 610538 but I have reduced 3 blocks because current block was mined almost 26 minutes ago.
My prediction- 610535


- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- What’s a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?
I'm very much newbie & have almost zero knowledge on mining. Had some researched & I would like to assist newbie so that they can understand how things happen.
- 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes.
- Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest.
- To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day.
- On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen.
- When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again
I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question.
Thread- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/why-bitcoin-mining-difficulty-is-increased-2344801
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4314
I'll take the "easy" route...

610538


For the benefit of others, I'll explain how I derived that value.

Basically... time to the CET midnight cutoff = 30 days, 20 hours 37 mins => (((30 * 24) + 20) * 60) + 37) minutes => 44437 minutes until the midnight cutoff... "Average" desired blocktime is 10 minutes/block... so 44437/10 => 4443.7 blocks should be mined before that time. Current block height is 606095... so 606095 + 4443 = 610538.

This ignores a LOT of variables mentioned in the OP, like difficulty adjustments etc... but I'm lazy and wanted to force others to do the hard work Wink
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Fine with it.
+1

Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol.
Good luck to the participants.
Alright  Cheesy
And don't forget to nominate a number to be in for the prize.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 3878
Visit: r7promotions.com
Much appreciated.  Smiley
The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place?

First place: 6 mBTC

______________________
1miau5 mBTC
Royse7771 mBTC


Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________________
1miau2.5 mBTC
Royse7771 mBTC
Fine with it.

Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol.
Good luck to the participants.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-)

Ps: I will delete this post after 24 hours


Thanks for the feedback. I've intentionally placed it in Beginners and Help to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin's block generation process and I'll reward good explanations with Merit. If a moderator decides to move it to games and rounds I'm not sure if participants consider the educational aspect but rather spam just a number to participate. ^^

By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something.
Much appreciated.  Smiley
The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place?

First place: 6 mBTC

______________________
1miau5 mBTC
Royse7771 mBTC


Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________________
1miau2.5 mBTC
Royse7771 mBTC
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 3878
Visit: r7promotions.com
Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-)

Ps: I will delete this post after 24 hours

By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Participants


________________________
610,357UserU
610,3751miau
610,479LoyceV
610,516Mashfiqun
610,535RapTarX
610,538HCP
610,540Royse777
610,542pooya87
610,562Souri
610,572naska21
610,595hanspeter77
610,600Swordsoffreedom
610,610haloxon
610,614Upgrade00
610,616Scheede
610,626SFR10
610,637DdmrDdmr
610,640hosseinimr93
610,668nelson4lov
610,699Phil_S
610,720crwth
610,770GazetaBitcoin
610,777micgoossens
610,800mikeywith
610,910Last of the V8s


legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
[Closed for new participants]

Instead of guessing the last numbers of a random block hash or the BTC-price at a defined date you need to guess Bitcoin’s first block in 2020, the next decade which will hopefully be a good one for BTC.
I’ve chosen that special type of giveaway to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin’s block creation process. Predicting a block mined at a specified time can be anticipated to a certain degree when you know about the factors how block generation process is done. Important questions related to this giveaway:
- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- What’s a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?


For detailed explanations how you calculated your nominated number, I might give some Merit in addition.
Of course, it requires a good portion of luck because all the factors are very volatile and until 2020 it’s still a long way to go.



To win this giveaway you have to predict the first block mined in 2020. The one coming closest will win the prize. Should we get a tie, the money will be divided equally. Relevant time is CET (Berlin time) after 23.59.59.


First place: 6 mBTC:  

______________________________
1miau5 mBTCpaid
Royse7771 mBTCpaid


Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________________________
1miau2.5 mBTCpaid
Royse7771 mBTCpaid


If someone wants to donate a few mBTC to the prize pool, feel free to leave a post. Wink
Every donator sends his allocated amount directly to the winners after it has published its address in 2020.


Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):

  • Each user can submit 1 number.
  • You are not allowed to edit your post later. Once on the list, your number is set, so choose carefully!
  • To prevent cheating, your account needs to have at least 5 earned Merit, airdropped Merit doesn’t count.
  • Don’t have valid negative trust from DT on your account (negative trust: more negative feedback than positive feedback).
  • One account per person, please be honest. If someone uses multiple accounts to abuse my giveaway and I catch you, you and your alts will get negative trust.
  • The deadline for participation is 06.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time) 08.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time).


Note: it can take a while until I’ve time to edit the list.

Good luck everyone!  Smiley Smiley
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