Fixed supply doesn't matter (change my mind)

Z-tight

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 12:56:37 PM

I will prepare an in-depth analysis of the problem when I catch some time.
Will post in a while.

That will probably be better, what you have said in this topic so far does not really make too much sense and you are comparing unrelated things. I don't know what the problem you are talking about is, but make sure the next post is something most of us can understand, if not forget about it and just take corrections you have received in this topic.

MeGold666

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I will prepare an in-depth analysis of the problem when I catch some time.
Will post in a while.

Bulltard

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 06:27:42 AM

Quote from: Bulltard on May 12, 2024, 06:22:44 AM

please stop using terms you don't understand.

deflation by inflation? really? stop looking for attention. you're just embarrassing yourself.
people replying to you are just trying to increase their post count... but again your whole thread makes zero sense.

I have studied economy for few years so I think I understand the words I use here in the discussion.

If it bothers you that much, maybe find some other thread to discuss.

you studied online? on youtube?

bruh you're posting nonsense.
if your take is bitcoin's price only holds because of tether and tether is a scam, just say that.
don't go posting shit like "deflation by inflation" (rofl), "fixed supply can be infinitely inflated"(omg).

seriously, i understand you want to inflate your post count but you're only deflating your overall reputation.

Natsuu

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Quote from: stompix on May 12, 2024, 09:47:35 AM

Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 05:14:29 AM

So far no one was able to change my mind, the outcome is the same as if the Bitcoin supply itself was inflated.

Because you don't want to listen and you try to convince others of this.

This is arrogance from OP. You better learn how market, economics, and money system works too. In a nutshell, any thing in value the greater the scarcity the greater is value. While bitcoin price may get higher, the cost of living gets higher too. Since there is scarcity, only small population have the ability to control its price it could be sold in higher prices.

So don't focus so much in Bitcoin when analyzing it. Focus on other aspect that people also need because that affect the prices of other assets. It's the housing systems, interest rates, indices. Because after all those are built by people who deemed it to make lives people better. Not just as a ticker on the market.

MeGold666

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Quote from: stompix on May 12, 2024, 09:52:22 AM

And I say it does prove me wrong! See how this works? Wink

Sipping coffee while waiting for someone that could abolish this threat... Cool

stompix

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 09:50:34 AM

Quote from: stompix on May 12, 2024, 09:47:35 AM

Because you don't want to listen and you try to convince others of this.

You have missed the point of this thread my friend, it's not about Tether (which was brought up for discussion to explain more easily) - it's about the fixed supply not defending against this inflation threat.

And I say it does prove me wrong! See how this works? Wink

MeGold666

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Quote from: stompix on May 12, 2024, 09:47:35 AM

Because you don't want to listen and you try to convince others of this.

You have missed the point of this thread my friend, it's not about Tether (which was brought up for discussion to explain more easily) - it's about the fixed supply not defending against this inflation threat.

stompix

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 05:14:29 AM

So far no one was able to change my mind, the outcome is the same as if the Bitcoin supply itself was inflated.

Because you don't want to listen and you try to convince others of this.

You're like a guy claiming that Mt Everest is 2000 meters tall and unless someone comes and plants more than 2000 1 meter sticks one after the other till the top you won't believe it's higher than that. And when somebody finally does you argue the sticks were not 1 meter but another length, and so on!

So rather than convincing you, how about you prove your theory with numbers, a collapse of tether (for what reason and why and at what intensity) that would trigger a collapse of Bitcoin to the same levels...as? What levels? Where do we even stop thinking bitcoin is not fighting inflation because if you go long terms you would need Bitcoin to fall below $1 to prove your theory and I am certain you won't be able to prove this will happen in case of a tether collapse!

MeGold666

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Quote from: Z-tight on May 12, 2024, 09:31:18 AM

I am having a hard time understanding you, BTC is not backed by tether, it is not backed by anything, but its active community that buys and sells it, gives it its value. Usdt is backed by the U.S dollars they claim to have in their reserves, and that is why it is pegged 1-to-1 with the U.S dollar, though i know there are so many usdt coins backed by thin air.

Tether is not being backed 1-to-1 with USD for a long time now, according to Tether company. It is pegged, until it isn't.

Quote from: Z-tight on May 12, 2024, 09:31:18 AM

If you are holding BTC, then you are holding BTC, if you are holding usdt, then you are holding usdt, the failure of one does not affect the other.

Yes, number of coins you hold won't change - ever. But the price will and Tether collapsing will have indirectly the same effect as if more Bitcoin was printed (more than the scheduled emission).
Unless it will recover from that massive collapse which I already expressed my opinion about.

Another question regarding this scenario is, how many people will not panic sale and will be able to hold until it recovers - in result many will be affected as if it was inflation of coins itself.

Z-tight

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 09:11:39 AM

The problem is that large portion of Bitcoin is currently backed by Tether (due to mentioned convenience), and Tether company buying Bitcoin as collateral to... their printed Tether (which is creating fake demand).

I am having a hard time understanding you, BTC is not backed by tether, it is not backed by anything, but its active community that buys and sells it, gives it its value. Usdt is backed by the U.S dollars they claim to have in their reserves, and that is why it is pegged 1-to-1 with the U.S dollar, though i know there are so many usdt coins backed by thin air.

Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 09:11:39 AM

Even if the demand would be all real it still falls into the same threat pit as this investors will have trouble recovering money from Tether scam for reinvesting again in Bitcoin.

If you are holding BTC, then you are holding BTC, if you are holding usdt, then you are holding usdt, the failure of one does not affect the other.

MeGold666

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Quote from: NotATether on May 12, 2024, 09:16:29 AM

I wonder how Tether benefits from an increased supply of USDT though, unless they are holding other cryptocurrencies. Because assuming they don't (not in any meaningful denominations, actually, relative to the amount of Tether they printed), USDT to USD is relatively stable. So barring some trading against their own token, I'm not sure how that helps them actually.

Except for maybe business contracts they get with other firms as the result of Tether being the #1 stablecoin. But that's the only thing I can think of.

They can basically inflate Bitcoin price on demand and buy it practically for free as they control the Tether printer.

It's a loop that creates a bubble.

NotATether

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I wonder how Tether benefits from an increased supply of USDT though, unless they are holding other cryptocurrencies. Because assuming they don't (not in any meaningful denominations, actually, relative to the amount of Tether they printed), USDT to USD is relatively stable. So barring some trading against their own token, I'm not sure how that helps them actually.

Except for maybe business contracts they get with other firms as the result of Tether being the #1 stablecoin. But that's the only thing I can think of.

MeGold666

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The problem is that large portion of Bitcoin is currently backed by Tether (due to mentioned convenience), and Tether company buying Bitcoin as collateral to... their printed Tether (which is creating fake demand).

Even if the demand would be all real it still falls into the same threat pit as this investors will have trouble recovering money from Tether scam for reinvesting again in Bitcoin.

Ambatman

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 08:00:03 AM

The equation is still valid in this threat model, the problem here is with creating fake demand.

Do you have the data to back this claim that fake demand was created?

Quote

I think you underestimate the effect of Tether collapse and I wouldn't count so much on the recovery phase

I don't
I know how much it would affect the market. It has the highest daily trading volume and it's fall could lead to a crash in cryptocurrency
Doesn't necessarily mean it would end it. People have tasted digital currency
They wouldn't want to let it go.

Quote

where the Bitcoin you now own will buy you less goods in this period

diminishing marginal returns would creep into Bitcoin but not now and not immediately to this extent and yes the recovery took years but the Market survived that's what I'm trying to get across.
It would be inflated if the supply wasn't fixed. Resources get expensive because of scarcity. If Bitcoin let's say gets to $1M that would be ≈$21 trillion neglecting lost Bitcoins and Fiat is circulation is around $2.3 trillion today
Now imagine the value it would be for a depreciating asset whose supply can be infinitely increased.
Even if Bitcoin fails and falls it wouldn't be because of tether.

MeGold666

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Quote from: kryptqnick on May 12, 2024, 07:36:17 AM

I had to read more of op's replies to get an understanding of op's argument because it wasn't clear from the original post to me.

Thank you for your time, my English is not the best and sometimes I have trouble expressing my thoughts.

Quote from: kryptqnick on May 12, 2024, 07:36:17 AM

The price is determined by supply and demand

The equation is still valid in this threat model, the problem here is with creating fake demand.

kryptqnick

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I had to read more of op's replies to get an understanding of op's argument because it wasn't clear from the original post to me. Bitcoin's price is not getting inflated. The price is determined by supply and demand: since the supply is fixed (although still growing slowly) but the demand is increasing over time (as more people get to know Bitcoin and want to try it out), the price grows in the long run. To me, it has nothing to do with Tether, and Bitcoin isn't "controlled by the printers". Sure, Tether is traded a lot against Bitcoin, but that's just out of convenience, since the price of Tether is pegged to the USD.

MeGold666

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Quote from: Ambatman on May 12, 2024, 06:59:29 AM

I'm talking about Fiat not tether.
Like I said tether is meaningless in the grand scheme of things
Fiat yes that I can consider.
If it's just tether then I don't really see the essence of the discussion because the highest it's fall would do is make wave that would affect weak hands and once everything settles recovering creeps in.
USDT isn't the only pair in the market
If you hell bent in believe tether can affect Bitcoin supply then I would have to give you the win
Because I believe its pointless.
Besides Bitcoin inflation decreases over time until it would get to zero and then move to the negatives

It was fun while it lasted I guess.

I think you underestimate the effect of Tether collapse and I wouldn't count so much on the recovery phase.

Let's say price recovery is successful, there will still be a period (who knows how long, could be years, could be decades) where the Bitcoin you now own will buy you less goods in this period, as if... it was inflated.

I guess we agree on the threat but not necessarily on the impact power.

I personally don't believe in recovery at this level of magnitude as the mining industry would collapse.

Ambatman

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Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 06:55:02 AM

Quote from: Ambatman on May 12, 2024, 06:48:13 AM

Every goods and services in this world price are inflated including land
And if it burst like you said
The price of everything would fall and if it does
Then it's like nothing relatively fell and Bitcoin value would still be around same since it wouldnt be the only thing affected.
Tether in the long run is meaningless.

Why would everything fall with Tether and Bitcoin ?

Every cryptocurrency would be affected with varying degree but outside it wouldn't make an echo.

I'm talking about Fiat not tether.
Like I said tether is meaningless in the grand scheme of things
Fiat yes that I can consider.
If it's just tether then I don't really see the essence of the discussion because the highest it's fall would do is make wave that would affect weak hands and once everything settles recovering creeps in.
USDT isn't the only pair in the market
If you hell bent in believe tether can affect Bitcoin supply then I would have to give you the win
Because I believe its pointless.
Besides Bitcoin inflation decreases over time until it would get to zero and then move to the negatives

It was fun while it lasted I guess.

MeGold666

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Quote from: Ambatman on May 12, 2024, 06:48:13 AM

Every goods and services in this world price are inflated including land
And if it burst like you said
The price of everything would fall and if it does
Then it's like nothing relatively fell and Bitcoin value would still be around same since it wouldnt be the only thing affected.
Tether in the long run is meaningless.

Why would everything fall with Tether and Bitcoin ?

Every cryptocurrency would be affected with varying degree but outside it wouldn't make an echo.

Ambatman

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Quote from: Bulltard on May 12, 2024, 06:22:44 AM

people replying to you are just trying to increase their post count... but again your whole thread makes zero sense.

Lol you funny. If they or I plan on increasing Post count then I just have to post in the gambling board
There atleast I can receive a bonus on my campaign
I'm engaged because I'm curious and enjoy economics like alot
Though I had to switch option for personal reasons my love still remains.

Quote from: MeGold666 on May 12, 2024, 06:16:48 AM

Quote from: Ambatman on May 12, 2024, 06:04:39 AM

It would be great if we can see your reasons why you believe such
How do you put it again
Convince us that Bitcoin supply is inflated
Personally look forward to understanding your view.

Basically what is happening right now is deflation by inflating the price of Bitcoin through Tether printer without real backing.

When this breaks (and it will break at some point) the outcome will be the same as if the actual supply of BTC was inflated as the value will drop significantly (as if the supply was increased).

It's good that it's fixed as at least we're not attacked from both sides but the threat remains the same.

Okay I think now I get what you saying
But like you said "as if the actual supply was inflated " does not mean it was inflated
It just look like it because the price falls and it would experience a dip like inflationary coins
Doesn't make it same as inflationary coins.
I shoot a goat on the head it dies
I shoot a human on the head it does
They both died doesn't make them same.
I think I would go with Devaluation through inflating price since we talking about currency and what you implying is Bitcoin price is inflated then it wouldn't just be Bitcoin
Every goods and services in this world price are inflated including land
And if it burst like you said
The price of everything would fall and if it does
Then it's like nothing relatively fell and Bitcoin value would still be around same since it wouldnt be the only thing affected.
Tether in the long run is meaningless.

Topic: Fixed supply doesn't matter (change my mind) (Read 307 times)