Topic: Football in China - The Chinese Super League - page 2. (Read 718 times)

Well, these parlays just suck and always sucked, rightfully lost


A bit annoying since the game winning goal came very late, but very deserved win for Shijazhuang, Qingdao was just pathetic. I am beginning to hate Shijazhuang, so many lost bets with them. Maybe time to do some Martingale against them

Not a good round all in all, but still slight profit for the season.

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Chongqing - Hebei / Hebei -0.25 @1.83 5/10

When you beat SIPG, you shouldn't be -0.25 against poor Chongqing, but -0.5. For Hebei it's vital to take the 3 points here, since it would strengthen their top4 position - and if you want to get into top4, you just have to beat Chongqing. Chongqing themselves won't make the top4 anyway, so motivation clearly on Hebei's side. Chongqing won just two games thus far (Tianjin, Shijazhuang) and I doubt they will make that three in this game. A draw is still possible, but we only lose half stake then.

Nothing to see here, 0-0 FT.

The above parlay is still alive thanks to the R&F keeper, who probably had a huge bet himself on Evergrande

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Adding one bet for tomorrow:

Qingdao - Shijazhuang / Qingdao +0.5 @1.89 4/10

Qingdao's Alessandrini was surprisingly only suspended for one game after his red card against Hebei and will be available for them again, which is a huge boost. Another import, who was injured, might give his comeback for Qingdao as well, but only some minutes, nothing more to be expected.
For Shijazhuang there are some bad news, since one of their best chinese players had season-ending injury - and as said before, they already have quite weak chinese players and replacing the better ones is a difficult task. Considering all this, these odds for Qingdao not to lose look very nice and are worth a medium punt.

Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua / Shenzhen AH0 @1.77 5/10

Same reasoning as the last bet against Shanghai: They are still missing their best player in El Shaarawy. Shenzhen is on a good run lately and should get a draw here minimum.

Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou R&F / Evergrande ML (1.14)
Hebei - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai ML (1.41)
Wuhan - Beijing / Beijing ML (1,56)
Parlay @2.508 3/10

Not a big fan of such parlays, but the 3 top teams just are in another league quality-wise. Beijing wasn't very convincing up until now, but showed a good performance in their last match crushing Qingdao 5-2, lets see, if they can back it up, they are super strong team if everything clicks for them.

They definitely are, thats why I picked them. They were 3.0+ when odds came out and 2.30-ish before kick-off, so initial prices were wrong. Hebei has better foreign players and better chinese players, but thats not always enough in football Shijazhuang is doing pretty good, they have good team chemistry, players are in sync and they still live from the promotion hype a bit. But at some point they will start to fade and lose more games. You can compensate lack of quality only for so long.


I didn't notice thus far, because I disregard home/away in CSL for the moment completely (makes no sense when in a bubble^^). But a quick glance at the stats shows Group A doing poor at "home" and being strong in "away" games in general. It's the complete opposite for Group B. Maybe you found a pattern here

See, now I fell like a fool. I am basing a lot of my pics on statistics in these leagues I don't usually follow and home/away is the very important part of that analyses. What is even worse these Chinese clubs often behave like there is a home team advantage. I guess it must be an anomaly but check stats a bit. They are definitely slanted in favor of "home" teams.

For instance Hebei should have won easy today if we take away "home advantage". They are much better team IMHO.

Yes, Alessandrini. Didn't read yet for how many games he will be suspended, but since it was unsportsmanlike conduct, it will be 2+ games imo.


There is no home/away They play in a bubble, Group A in Dalian, group B in Suzhou. The pitch in one of the stadiums (don't remember which one) is already in such bad condition that they play on some practice ground nearby. Heavy rains, hot and humid weather on top; this is a wild league, but gratz for your parlay

I am bit concerned for that bet since Wuhan plays much better on home turf and I would never put a bet on them in away fixture under normal circumstances. I can see the odds @2.0 at the moment for Wuhan win but I would much rather take both to score @1.7 since Wuhan defense looks criminal away. Which player got the red card, Roman Alesandrini maybe? If affirmative I am skipping this match, he is by far the most dangerous Qingdao player.

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Great thread, info is really hard to find on these matches so much appreciated for the the stuff you write.

I started following Chinese league much more these last few weeks since I am working from home and often need something in the background to make the time pass faster. I am mostly betting on both to score market since I still manage to find solid odds and the strike rate is quite good. Will chime in with few of my tips so that you are not the only one posting here.

Here is my morning multi which thankfully passed without problems.

That was both to score in first Chinese match and home win in second + a little bit of DOTA.

Odds went down nicely for all the picks (Shenzhen ~1.45, Guangzhou ~1.50, Hebei ~1.50), but Hebei disappointed us, although they took the lead. But looked like it was good value, you won't always win value bets though  +4.35 for this round, +9.50 for the season, slow and steady wins the race

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For tomorrows match between Qingdao and Wuhan, the odds for Wuhan looked good, when they came out, because Qingdao will miss one of their foreign players due to red card in last match. They don't have a proper replacement for him and Wuhan is a very solid team. Odds have come down quite a lot though and not worth pre-match anymore. But if anyone is bored, watches/follows the game, you might consider putting a bet on Wuhan live.

Beijing got a red card late in first half when the game was 1-1. Hard to get the 3 points then, 2-2FT, -6.00.

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For next round:

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10

R&F is struggling a lot this season, especially upfront, which is unusual for them. Now they will also miss their top striker Zahavi, because he travelled to Israel to play the UEFA Nations League. These odds are very wrong.

Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10

Guangzhou is still the best team for me in CSL and Shanghai will miss their top player El Shaarawy in this game, because he also left China for UNL.

Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10

This one is wrongly priced, Shijazhuang can’t be favourite here. I am expecting Shijazhuang to fade a bit the longer the season goes, since their Chinese players are weak. Hebei is a solid side and should get a draw here minimum.

Didn't watch that one, but looks like a comfortable win more or less, +4,65 here.

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Shijazhuang - Beijing / Beijing ML @1.60 6/10

Beijing lost the big game against SIPG today, but they are still top team in CSL all things considered. Shijazhuang is doing pretty good after promoting. They have good foreign players and are pretty in sync all in all - their chinese players are weak though. Beijing is the way better team and 1.60 is just too much, when they lost today and want to go back to winning asap (they drew the game before as well). Shijazhuang seems a good opponent to get a win again after two unsuccessful tries

Tianjin has sacked their coach Uli Stielike, which is something I don't like for this bet I rarely bet against teams that just sacked their coach or have a new coach, because from my experience these teams do very well in the next games. Everything basically starts at zero, bench players see a new opportunity to get into the team under the new coach and the players from starting XI have to fight to stay in there. So you always have a very motivated side, which most likely wasn't the case before (lots of teams want to get rid of their coaches at some point).

For this thread I will leave the bet as it is, but maybe you want to hedge this bet, if you already placed it. Fortunately the odds have moved in our favour, so you won't lose anything with hedging now  - +0.25 Tianjin @2.10 - and even make a tiny profit. Up to you what you do, I just wanted to share this new development

I am glad to hear that the Chinese team is good at what they are doing and it seems like they are hardworking and really determined to win their matches and also very eager to bring home the bacon. I can say that this is a good start for them I hope that someday, they will be as good as other professional players around the globe.

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Qingdao are doing ok-ish until now; they still didn't record a single win this season, but only lost once as well (0-4-1). They already played SIPG and Beijing and were able to get a draw out of those games each - in the Beijing game they were already down 0-3 They look very motivated and have a good morale. Tianjin is just a mess right now; they are 0-1-4 with 4-13 goals scored. They had troubles with their import players since the start of the season and today their striker Acheampong got injured again, so they will most likely only play with some german scrub in addition to their chinese players. Not a lot of hope for them right now and a good opportunity for Qingdao to get their first win of the season. A draw would still be only 50% loss with this asian handicap.

Problem is, the longer the season goes, the more you lose your edge up until the point, where there is next to no edge anymore. The bookmakers have more and more data available, there are no secrets and surprises anymore. And I am not that delusional to think that I can beat the bookies without informational advantage.

For example Chongqing in first game; they had zero foreign players available, because they were all still in quarantine. Bookies didn't know it or didn't bother to price it in. Now teams playing against Chongqing are only allowed to have two foreign players on the pitch, but they can sub fresh ones in etc., so huge advantage. And you have a lot of these little things in the beginning of a season and they make a huge difference. So pre-match you will struggle more to constantly find good bets as the season goes on, but inplay is the way to go in any league anyway imo.

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Chinese Football is very special, if that makes any sense. You have big quality differences even inside a team and the chinese players often rely a bit on the foreign player to make things happen, like "you earn 5mln, me only 500k, so go ahead and show you are worth it". All offensive play is heavily impacted by the often brazilian players who earn their money there. The chinese players are mainly for defending and they are doing quite a good job. You have these fast, versatile and never tired players on the wings and in defensive midfield, plus some 1.80m+ centre backs, who defend the air very well normally. So the foreign player struggle through the middle and high balls into the box are often defended well, since most teams don't have tall strikers. It's very different dynamics than in european football for example, where the teams are more homogenous.

U have been checking on your prediction, all seeming to be correct except on a poor result from SIPG, they are a great team with huge potential if winning the game.
I would be betting on your prediction as I have always hate the Chinese super league because of hard result and not easy to predict. I will give it a try in a next prediction line OP.

Poor round with a poor SIPG, who thought they could easily win this and were just able to get a draw with a late penalty after being down a man in second half.
Wuhan was pretty good, should have taken the -0.5 here. I like Shijazhuang though, think they will play a good season for their standards.
Hebei were ahead 2-0 already until 74th minute, but Chongqing was able to make it 2-2 in the closing stages. Odds were a rollercoaster here pre-match and also inplay. Thats the difficulty with CSL, so much going on personnel-wise and information is hard to find.

-7.63 for this round, +6.50 for the season.

Really ugly football we get to see. The football was of course never very good quality-wise, but at least quite entertaining. Now this is just plain boring to watch, even if there are some goals scored.

Some early plays for next round:

Wuhan - Shijazhuang / Wuhan -0.25 @ 1.79 3/10

There isn't a big difference in the foreign players, but Shijazhuang as freshly promoted team has way worse domestic players than Wuhan, who made a good impression thus far. This will be the first real test for Shijazhuang (Hebei got early red card in first game of the season) and I think Wuhan is a bit too much for them at this point.

Qingdao - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai -1.75 @1.70 6/10

Qingdao promoted as well for this season and there is just a class difference between these two. This one should be 4-0+, if SIPG takes Qingdao seriously.

Heibei - Chongqing / Hebei -0.5 @2.05 4/10

Hebei has a good team and good import players and they added another import striker the other day. Chongqing is struggling with their personel - watched todays game and it was just plain awful, even though they got a point and deserved three against poor Tianjin.

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As said earlier, maybe save some money/stakes for live betting, but whatever you do, good luck

Well, getting them citizenship is for very selfish reasons (foreign player policy) and I bet they get good money for it behind the curtains Only few players feel chinese and really want that citizenship no matter what (Ai Kesen aka Elkeson is one of those players imo).
Take for example Sandro Wagner, who was an ok-ish Bundesliga player and even was signed by Bayern Munich, but didn't play a lot because of Lewandowski. He was transferred to Tianjin last year and earns around 7.5mln/year there. At Munich he maybe earned 25% of that. And he clearly stated, that it also was a financial decision being 30+y.o at the time of the transfer already. You can earn very good money there, but for most players it's just a business decision. It's a huge cultural change and not that much of a challenge to play in CSL, so you have to compensate the players financially. If you decide to start that adventure, you are the king though; but the teams also don't hesitate to kick you out again, if you don't perform to their satisfaction

I just found about this league a few weeks back and I'm struggling to find some bet predictions for the league that aren't written in Chinese texts and I'm so glad I found this one on bitcointalk. What's crazy about this league is that they aren't really bothering much about imports as long as these imports do their job on the field, and even going so far as helping them get that citizenship to gain more perks and to motivate them even further into playing good.


Heard similar things on some gambling circles of my own though it's really nothing new if some match outcomes are controlled on the inside. Most of the time, these matches will go clean and smooth but there are some instances that makes you think otherwise, so yeah.

Countries like spain, Italy, England, Germany, Brazil, Argentina and many others are running so many football leagues for a long time but in asian region we don't see this football leagues. For last few years India is running their football league and Indian super league is getting good support from asian football fans.

Football leagues are just not only helping governments to get big amount money but also put positive effects to national team. When local players get the opportunity to play with different foreign players i think it helps them to increase their skills. Which team are doing good in worldcup stage you can give a big portion of credits to their local football leagues.  

By the way good to see a separate thread for Chinese Super League (CSL).