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Topic: For the bulls (Read 3632 times)

legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
October 08, 2014, 08:28:38 PM
#46

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI

Thanks, that's a little boring to watch since I already know what to response (I watched the prior chat about the conclusions and a little of the talk itself)

He's making one fatal error in his assessment: Bitcoin mining scales linearly with market cap.
The amount of value representing Gold & Fiat Money aren't considered in his comparisons, but they should.

The ecology should be represented in value per energy not absolute energy. The amount of value both in market cap and transaction value is so much higher with Gold and Fiat money that it distorts the conclusions he makes. I also don't think that energy efficacy will improve to that extent (it won't tend to zero if Bitcoin remains important). So far the power consumption has been increasing linearly with market price and more efficient machines simply did only offset it during the transition with even higher power consumption overall in the long run.
I'd like to see a trend of power efficiency in [Transactions/Joule] and see where that is headed. I doubt you can extrapolate an asymptotic trend. I think it's linear perhaps slightly logarithmic.

The last point is you wouldn't want to exclude the manufacturing costs of mining equipment nor the cost of exchange infrastructure if you compare it to the operational costs of banks.

Making sure that I'm following you: Are you saying that if the Bitcoin market cap increases to the level that fiat money or gold currently maintain, that you think the total amount of energy required to secure the system could never be reduced by way of efficiency gains to have it be relatively similar to the total energy that is used to secure those other stores of value? Just putting this out there, but this phenomenon of increased energy efficiency developments, whenever involving something that humans value, has historically caused the total amount used to increase with most, if not all, such resources.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
October 07, 2014, 09:04:00 PM
#45
Stopped reading after eft shot down

Still falling..
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
October 07, 2014, 08:41:14 PM
#44
well, banks are very efficient, they create money from thin air with fractional banking, for a few cents per million

just that this is scamming and enslaving everyone, so ... yes slavery is efficient


Is this current bitcoin CENTRALIZED industry you guys are creating any better?? Please explain why
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1014
October 07, 2014, 06:43:33 PM
#43
well, banks are very efficient, they create money from thin air with fractional banking, for a few cents per million

just that this is scamming and enslaving everyone, so ... yes slavery is efficient
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
October 07, 2014, 04:29:24 PM
#42
Banking industry spends billions per month just for keeping the lights on.

Just for the info, mining will cost more than half a billion of dollars at $10.000 for BTC (after next halving).

+1
But the question is if Bitcoin as a payment network would be still more efficient than the banking system today. The math is not so easy because not every task in finance will be automated to 100% by Bitcoin.

In my opinion Bitcoin as a network is not efficient enough to stay the #1 in cryptos forever. POS and other ways to process and secure transactions are more efficient.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
October 07, 2014, 01:46:31 PM
#41
Banking industry spends billions per month just for keeping the lights on.

Just for the info, mining will cost more than half a billion of dollars at $10.000 for BTC (after next halving).
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
October 07, 2014, 01:26:56 PM
#40
This bear rally has a major advantage - after some months you can buy cheap bitcoins from bagholders for double digits price Cheesy I'm waiting patiently for the collapse of the 2011 log-linear trendline Smiley A new ATH will be within a few years, after despair phase Wink

Another major advantage is everyone who is selling now can buy back double their coins at a later time! Also traders seem to be making a killing shorting this thing down
member
Activity: 108
Merit: 10
October 07, 2014, 01:09:10 PM
#39
This bear rally has a major advantage - after some months you can buy cheap bitcoins from bagholders for double digits price Cheesy I'm waiting patiently for the collapse of the 2011 log-linear trendline Smiley A new ATH will be within a few years, after despair phase Wink
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
October 07, 2014, 02:54:33 AM
#38
Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made Wink
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

sure, sure. I am aware of the probabilities. It doesn't matter in that respect. Compare to get 1% of the hashing power will cost you 1000$ or 1billion $. What is more secure? On the other hand the dollar investment will always get determined by the expected return. At $300 $1.1mio get created every day. So running the miners will not cost more than 1.1Mio. So if the price 10fold it is likely that mining will cost 10times more.

So efficiency doesn't solve that problem. Mining today is much more efficient compared to 2011 but much more electricity gets used.
How much energy used is irrelevant because e=mc2 or because volcanos or because sunshine.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
October 07, 2014, 02:26:42 AM
#37
Don't use new technology...

cuz the environment

hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
October 07, 2014, 02:09:09 AM
#36
Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made Wink
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

sure, sure. I am aware of the probabilities. It doesn't matter in that respect. Compare to get 1% of the hashing power will cost you 1000$ or 1billion $. What is more secure? On the other hand the dollar investment will always get determined by the expected return. At $300 $1.1mio get created every day. So running the miners will not cost more than 1.1Mio. So if the price 10fold it is likely that mining will cost 10times more.

So efficiency doesn't solve that problem. Mining today is much more efficient compared to 2011 but much more electricity gets used.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
★Bitin.io★ - Instant Exchange
October 06, 2014, 12:29:53 PM
#35
I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.


We'll all be rich!  


Yess buy Buy buy!
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
October 06, 2014, 12:17:48 PM
#34

One doesn't have to think that climate change is a superstition to argue against the idea that bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster.

I'm all ears.

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI

Thanks, that's a little boring to watch since I already know what to response (I watched the prior chat about the conclusions and a little of the talk itself)

He's making one fatal error in his assessment: Bitcoin mining scales linearly with market cap.
The amount of value representing Gold & Fiat Money aren't considered in his comparisons, but they should.

The ecology should be represented in value per energy not absolute energy. The amount of value both in market cap and transaction value is so much higher with Gold and Fiat money that it distorts the conclusions he makes. I also don't think that energy efficacy will improve to that extent (it won't tend to zero if Bitcoin remains important). So far the power consumption has been increasing linearly with market price and more efficient machines simply did only offset it during the transition with even higher power consumption overall in the long run.
I'd like to see a trend of power efficiency in [Transactions/Joule] and see where that is headed. I doubt you can extrapolate an asymptotic trend. I think it's linear perhaps slightly logarithmic.

The last point is you wouldn't want to exclude the manufacturing costs of mining equipment nor the cost of exchange infrastructure if you compare it to the operational costs of banks.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
October 06, 2014, 11:01:44 AM
#33
I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.


We'll all be rich!  

LMFAO! Because you really know better than an insider who is dumping over $7mil in coins!!! Keep loading up.......
legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
October 06, 2014, 09:50:07 AM
#32

One doesn't have to think that climate change is a superstition to argue against the idea that bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster.

I'm all ears.

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI
full member
Activity: 343
Merit: 100
October 06, 2014, 08:50:40 AM
#31
Down trend didn't stop with the brief recovery.

Price chart still painting all over the place in the last 12 hours.
sr. member
Activity: 1246
Merit: 261
★ Investor | Trader | Promoter
October 06, 2014, 08:47:01 AM
#30
I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.


We'll all be rich!  
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
October 06, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
#29
Well, someone is always right with their predictions, in these bear markets, it's falllling and his sockpuppets... In a couple months or years, they won't be right anymore, that's the way things go! We stayed at these prices, even if the Willy bot was off for months already, I wouldn't expect too much of it, to be honest!

Actually that is your only hope... Have you ever considered this might actually be a market top?!  Huh
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
October 06, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
#28
Well, someone is always right with their predictions, in these bear markets, it's falllling and his sockpuppets... In a couple months or years, they won't be right anymore, that's the way things go! We stayed at these prices, even if the Willy bot was off for months already, I wouldn't expect too much of it, to be honest!
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
October 06, 2014, 07:26:03 AM
#27
Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made Wink
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)
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