Topic: For those thinking some bets are safe, read this - page 3. (Read 14412 times)

That’s a lot of money now and for sure that guy regrets that moment. There is no easy bet, there’s still a chance to lose and in gambling its normal. How can you win on your bet if the probability is very very low and yet you still put big money on it? Its show to me how greed people are to do such thing without any thinking that he might lose the money.

When I make a wager, I am not expecting to win. 
This is a mentality I have lived with for a long time.
It becomes less of a let down when I go on a bad losing streak.
If you don't expect to get anything from your efforts, and are rewarded when you do, the stress level remains evened out.

Pretty much reminds me of this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1npmaq/highroller_loses_800k_with_allin_bet_on_justdice/

The guy "f*ckit" was betting 7016BTC with a win rate of 96.2%, so most of his rolls should of been a winner, basically out of 100 rolls, only 4 losses and he assumed it was safe and lost it all.

He seems like a long time early adopter because looking at his reaction he didn't really seem to care that much.

safe is a subjective term and important details were left out of the OP like odds on the other horses as well as probabilties of them winning.  If the implied probability or payout is less than or equal to the probability of losing it is a bad/losing bet. For example, if you're making a typical spread bet on some sporting event that is giving odds like -110(1.91 decimal and 52.38% implied probability) but you have good reason to believe the event will occur 60% of the time you have a 7.62% edge. Similarly if you're being paid 1000:1(implied probability of 0.1%) and you have good reason to believe the actual probability of that horse winning is something like say 0.15%(roughly 667 to 1) then it is a profitable bet.  Even with it being a profiable bet you're only going to win, on average, 6 out of 10 bets for the sporting event example and 1 out of 667 bets for the horse racing example. So bets should be made in such a way that you have as little as possible risk of ruin while floating variance. In the world of probabilties there is nothing to say you wont lose several or even dozens of 60/40 bets and possibly thousands of 600+ to 1 bets in a row although it is fairly unlikely as the sample size grows. Using "confidence intervals" you can see how wildly/widely short term results can vary from long term expected rates.

At first I thought there would be a talk about arbitrage betting where you choose three casino, bet 1 x 2 and in overall each of them has odd higher than 3.0 but seems there is talk about horse racing and I have no idea why people look it as a safe bet option. One user thought like that too, here is the link of thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-proven-way-to-make-money-from-gambling-whats-your-opinion-about-this-5083934
The problem is that people don't know math and 1% of loss means nothing for them, 1% means there is chance which possibly will come.

Its still a valid mindset it might be different vs actual money the experience on the game would be just the same.The difference only is the thrill given when you are
already putting actual money. Safe bet doesn't exist when you are risking your own money so this would simply fits out on faucet or trial ones. 

That is obvious. I don't see any gambler thinks of another way around.

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About the shared site, scenarios like that are really present (or should I say "common") in horse racing. Although the amount involved is not that decent compare to the amount that circulates on the actions here (yes. horse betting industry here is so alive and kicking), we can see that in horse racing, many gamblers wants to take a risk on high odds and not on the other way around as far as the usual doings here are concern. Don't know their references though.

But take note that kind of doings is not applicable on other sports that's why people have different approach on how they will make a certain set of bets.

I know no bet is safe, I have tried a lot of different strategies in sport betting if it can be called strategy. I once started to play 1.10 odds and thought to be always a win. I was betting 100 Euro in a bet and always tried to stick to a single bet. At the beginning many wins came in but then started also some lost bets which did ruin my strategy.

If you can't win with an odd of 1.1 I doubt thete is something called a safe bet.

I think there is a big difference between gambling and sports betting, chances of winning at gambling are relatively small unless you use some illegal methods which will in most cases be short-lived. On the other side sports betting does give us a little better chance, by analyzing certain things as team players form, injuries, statistics of victory / defeat and some other info chance to win increases, but at the end it all depends on luck or referee.

In the case of sports betting when it comes to football, basketball, handball or any other sport which has three possible outcomes (1 x 2) or in case of bet with double chance (1x x x2), just imagine you bet on home win on one game - you chance to win is only 33% and other side is have 66% to win. So odds are already unfavorable in the start, and if you add more games on same ticket they are becoming lower and lower.

To equalize the odds try to play on sports like tennis where chance for win/lose is 50/50% and play only single bets with a bigger amount of money. However there is no safe bets, you can only try reduce the risk to the maximum extent possible.

Exactly. That's how people get into gambling. Although I am not a active gambler, I got into gambling in this kind of way. People at the beginning join gambling just for having fun while it turns into addiction in most case. Leaving gambling is so hard for the addicted people.

Maybe it's good for you, but you never have a real experience of the losing money like us
Someday you will tempt to try to use your coins for the bets because you want to know how the feeling if you can win the money. It is like what I got in the past, and finally, I use my coins to enter the real experiences in gambling, and yes, I got the win and lost in many times, but it does not make me sad because I know how to leave the place

The only safe bet is by using practice mode at online casino.At lest I won't lose money

Those guys afford to lose the money, and we don’t need to follow them instead we should learn from that mistakes. Always think that even you have a lot of money, you have to remins yourself that you work hard for that and its not good to take the risk through that money. Betting is not a same gambe, there is always no safe money in gambling.

It is all about value.

If you think the odds of 1.50 are worth 1.40 in your reality conception, then it is worth a stake. If it just like in real life, we say supply and demand set a perfect price for goods and services, but you will never pay $5 for a piece of bread if you can find the same good quality bread for $1.50, so the same applies here.

Same of course in the stock market where prices are said to be a perfect representation of reality (efficient market). 

Yes, no bet is safe but it the matter of how much risky is the bet. The example you mentioned is a rare one. In normal circumstances it is better to choose safe bets on which chances on loss are less but still you never know, anything can happen in the best. Even you can lose the most safest bets.

Maybe you can lower the odd but safe bet is kinda impossible unless rigged

Some bets are pure speculation which somehow is promising in the eyes of any gamblers and there are some who really loves to risk due to their guts telling. Either way, what we choose nobody will ever predict the outcome no matter what analysis we do and that risk is still there.

There are lot of people who love to take risk at any extend so this is just normal in gambling when people believe that they are extremely lucky.But I won't go to too much of risks increasing the level will make our money to be lose so ot depends.

I have also seen some gamblers playing the dice game with a 98% win chance setting sometimes and they would usually place a huge amount on every rolls they made, it might seems as a safe bet in some people views. But in reality, they still stand a small chance to lose the bet even if it might seems unbelievable, I wonder why does some people still believe in bets that are safe, if this sort of bets truly exists in the first place, I believe all of the casinos would surely cease their operation after a few months time.

You can see too much greed on the part of the gambler since you can see the level of chance to win on this one is almost zero and yet they still choose to bet at a higher value. Well, this is what gambling is all about there is really no safe money in gambling because everything is in risk and if you’re greedy enough to gamble on this kind of situation, you can expect that your money will lose.