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Topic: For those who have no idea what to do - page 3. (Read 4434 times)

donator
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
October 05, 2014, 12:26:24 AM
#26
Your father could have been a millionaire if he just invested 10% of it in 2010

Hindsight is 20/20.  The price never had anything to do w the investment thesis.

Its all speculation.  Only early adopters can make money by pumping and dumping to newbs

Dont fall for it.  

But do what you want, I dont care.  Im only here to help people understand economics and finance

I had the foresight about bitcoins in 2010.
And I am having it for MaidSafe now.
Cheers.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
October 05, 2014, 12:21:25 AM
#25
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
October 05, 2014, 12:20:25 AM
#24

Bitcoin price is purely speculative.  There are no fundamentals.  The only time we got near a bitcoin economy was silk road.  That is when goods are priced in bitcoin.  When goods are priced in bitcoin then you can estimate price by comparing the same basket of goods relative to other currencies.

No, SR never had their prices in bitcoin, as any other business selling goods purchased or produced with fiat never did. There's no such things as "bitcoin economy", if anything it's 10 years down the road *at least*. Everybody with a tiny bit of clue understands that, this is a protocol building stage, not world domination stage.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 05, 2014, 12:20:00 AM
#23
Your father could have been a millionaire if he just invested 10% of it in 2010

Hindsight is 20/20.  The price never had anything to do w the investment thesis.

Its all speculation.  Only early adopters can make money by pumping and dumping to newbs

Dont fall for it.  

But do what you want, I dont care.  Im only here to help people understand economics and finance
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
October 05, 2014, 12:14:58 AM
#22
Your father could have been a millionaire if he just invested 10% of it in 2010

He can be one right now. Just if he had a time machine.
donator
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
October 05, 2014, 12:13:18 AM
#21
Your father could have been a millionaire if he just invested 10% of it in 2010
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 05, 2014, 12:08:44 AM
#20
Bitcoin does not replace USD
Who trusts the US Dollar anymore? I'm talking about fiat money in general. Trustless also means trustless as a store of value. You don't need to trust an insolvent bank to store your money digitally, you can do it yourself. This appeals to me. It may not appeal to you, fine, you don't have to own any bitcoins.


Trustless means you dont need clearing.  Thats the whole point of crypto.  Clearing is why it takes days to move money from one place to another.  All banks use a ledger and double entry accounting.  What blockchain proposes is that theres one universal ledger.  That is an interesting proposal but it doesn't explain why a currency called Bitcoin should exist and why it should have any price.  A worthless token can achieve the same utility since its all outside money anyways

Doesnt matter what you like or prefer.  The US economy uses USD.  Japans economy uses YEN, etc..  You have to use the currency inside that economy because theres no choice.  And Im not talking about freedom or ridiculous notion of politics.  Its like if you want to write English you use roman letters.  But you can write the same word in Katakana if you want Japanese person to read.  Its a systemic issue

Like I said.  You just dont understand banking or economics.  Currency vs asset vs transmission tech

I don't care what you do w your money.  But do yourself a favor and do some due diligence on your investments.  

Get your info from non biased sources and not bulltards or beartards

Disclosure.  Ive never had any bitcoin position long or short.  I just hate bitcoin because someone tried to get my retired father to invest in bitcoin.  He was about to throw $50K at it til I stopped him.  I keep seeing idiots like Andreas A, Stefan Molyneux and bitcoin pumpers talk crap that are wrong wrong wrong.  Their understanding of banking, finance and econ is like high school level




legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting
October 05, 2014, 12:08:37 AM
#19
**Note: For the record, I released the majority of my holdings between $600-$850 but still have some stake in this market.


When did you get in?


Good post, glad I read it
donator
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
October 04, 2014, 11:45:33 PM
#18
I will make it simpler:
Just invest in MaidSafeCoins.
And hold your position in Bitcoins.
Thats it.

If bitcoins fails, all Cryptos are gonna fail.
MaidSafe is another story, a completely different animal.
legendary
Activity: 889
Merit: 1013
October 04, 2014, 11:32:35 PM
#17
Bitcoin does not replace USD
Who trusts the US Dollar anymore? I'm talking about fiat money in general. Trustless also means trustless as a store of value. You don't need to trust an insolvent bank to store your money digitally, you can do it yourself. This appeals to me. It may not appeal to you, fine, you don't have to own any bitcoins.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 04, 2014, 10:41:50 PM
#16
Anyways, private money has always existed.  Bitcoin is just another form of "outside money" like Chuckee Cheese tokens, airline miles, casino chips, WoW gold, etc..
All these require trust in the issuer to limit the supply to maintain the value, and as the single holder of the ledger. Both of these require trust, which is often broken. Bitcoin is the first trustless, open source, public ledger system. It is not the same as things which have happened before.

Its still outside money.  Trust has nothing to do utility aspect of money.  Stability is most important factor.  

The trustless aspect of bitcoin only matters in the transmission part.  So blockchain replaces ACH and checks.  Bitcoin does not replace USD
legendary
Activity: 889
Merit: 1013
October 04, 2014, 10:14:57 PM
#15
Anyways, private money has always existed.  Bitcoin is just another form of "outside money" like Chuckee Cheese tokens, airline miles, casino chips, WoW gold, etc..
All these require trust in the issuer to limit the supply to maintain the value, and as the single holder of the ledger. Both of these require trust, which is often broken. Bitcoin is the first trustless, open source, public ledger system. It is not the same as things which have happened before.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 04, 2014, 10:03:29 PM
#14
Distributed ledger is not a financial innovation.  Its a technical innovation.
It's a technical innovation which will have an effect on the economy and change the nature of financial exchanges. That sounds a lot like a financial innovation to me?
Just because everyone uses email doesnt mean email has a price.  
If there could only ever be 21 million email address there would be a price, and a high one
Why do you think VCs invest in ventures like Coinbase instead of just buying bitcoins
Second Market, GABI, Winklevoss: they are buying bitcoins. Not that too much speculation at this stage is good for the project, but it is happening.

Is high frequency trading a financial innovation? No its not.  It changed trading in the world of finance.  HFT is a technological innovation within the world of finance but its not a financial product.

Anyways, private money has always existed.  Bitcoin is just another form of "outside money" like Chuckee Cheese tokens, airline miles, casino chips, WoW gold, etc..

But it was "inside money" inside of Silk Road. 
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 04, 2014, 09:52:58 PM
#13
There is not a $5 billion bitcoin economy.  You dont use market cap to measure economic output.
The $5 billion total value of all bitcoins represents the current perceived value of those bitcoins by the people who choose to hold them. Granted it doesn't represent the network or transmission value of the bitcoins in circulation, that's because part of the value is speculative or as a store of value. However, it does represent the net worth of the bitcoin economy.


Thats not an economy.  The market cap of Apple is just the current share price times number of shares.

Doesnt mean Apple is an economy.

Silk Road was a little economy.  The goods were priced in bitcoin.  You can take a basket of goods from Silk Road priced in bitcoin and compare the same basket priced in usd and get your price discovery.

Every bitcoiner keep confusing asset vs currency vs technology (utility)
legendary
Activity: 889
Merit: 1013
October 04, 2014, 09:49:55 PM
#12
Distributed ledger is not a financial innovation.  Its a technical innovation.
It's a technical innovation which will have an effect on the economy and change the nature of financial exchanges. That sounds a lot like a financial innovation to me?
Just because everyone uses email doesnt mean email has a price.  
If there could only ever be 21 million email address there would be a price, and a high one
Why do you think VCs invest in ventures like Coinbase instead of just buying bitcoins
Second Market, GABI, Winklevoss: they are buying bitcoins. Not that too much speculation at this stage is good for the project, but it is happening.
legendary
Activity: 889
Merit: 1013
October 04, 2014, 09:44:35 PM
#11
There is not a $5 billion bitcoin economy.  You dont use market cap to measure economic output.
The $5 billion total value of all bitcoins represents the current perceived value of those bitcoins by the people who choose to hold them. Granted it doesn't represent the network or transmission value of the bitcoins in circulation, that's because part of the value is speculative or as a store of value. However, it does represent the net worth of the bitcoin economy.
sr. member
Activity: 289
Merit: 252
bagholder since 2013
October 04, 2014, 09:44:00 PM
#10
Financial innovation comes from advances in financial products like CDS, MBS, CDO, etc.
All these products have counterparty risk. Counterparty risk in an insolvent system is what nearly brought down global credit markets in 2008. Bitcoin has no counterparty risk, and in my opinion is superior to the current global financial system. Granted bitcoin will struggle to get mainstream adoption until there are long term future contracts so people can use it as a more traditional currency with a more stable value, but these innovations are on the way.

You're missing the point.  Distributed ledger is not a financial innovation.  Its a technical innovation.

Just because everyone uses email doesnt mean email has a price.  A company that supports email service like Google has a priced stock though.  Why do you think VCs invest in ventures like Coinbase instead of just buying bitcoins



Tim Draper has taken a substantial position in BTC.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 04, 2014, 09:40:20 PM
#9
Financial innovation comes from advances in financial products like CDS, MBS, CDO, etc.
All these products have counterparty risk. Counterparty risk in an insolvent system is what nearly brought down global credit markets in 2008. Bitcoin has no counterparty risk, and in my opinion is superior to the current global financial system. Granted bitcoin will struggle to get mainstream adoption until there are long term future contracts so people can use it as a more traditional currency with a more stable value, but these innovations are on the way.

You're missing the point.  Distributed ledger is not a financial innovation.  Its a technical innovation.

Just because everyone uses email doesnt mean email has a price.  A company that supports email service like Google has a priced stock though.  Why do you think VCs invest in ventures like Coinbase instead of just buying bitcoins

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
October 04, 2014, 09:37:37 PM
#8
Your B3 statement is most interesting to me. Yes more players decreases the odds of a systems collapse however a rather large, at this point, group of speculators does not constitute real global demand for Bitcoin. In other words...I feel Bitcoin is in a battle for its life as a generally accepted global currency.  

I agree.  Despite exponential growth over the past few years, Bitcoin is still at the complete mercy of substantially larger markets and market players.   Although, I would argue that it's hands-down remarkable the resiliency it's demonstrated while competing on a global playing field.  It didn't have the luxury of growing in some economic Petri dish until maturation.  It's amazing that something so small has persevered and made it this far when it's subject to the influence of virtually everyone in the industrialized world.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
October 04, 2014, 09:32:45 PM
#7
I like your post and would like to add some other points.

Bitcoin price is purely speculative.  There are no fundamentals.  The only time we got near a bitcoin economy was silk road.  That is when goods are priced in bitcoin.  When goods are priced in bitcoin then you can estimate price by comparing the same basket of goods relative to other currencies.

Having a limited base supply means nothing.  You want to pay attention to velocity.  Whether 1 btc equals 300usd or 10usd it doesnt matter as long as velocity can keep up w transactions

Inelasticity actually inhibits economic growth.  Most if not practically all capital money exist as credit.  People borrow money to create business that generate future returns to pay off interest.  Inelasticity makes it difficult to build financial services.  Terrible for creating loans

Hoarding is like stuffing cash in a mattress.  It does nothing.  Theres no value creation.  

Thats why experienced investors don't hoard bitcoin.  They either invest in ventures or stay away totally.

The entire bitcoin investment thesis is based on false and ignorant understanding of economics

If you buy bitcoins you are just speculating.  Theres a real chance it goes to zero.  Personally i dont think itll go to zero cause theres a bunch of cultists who will keep HODLing.  But i think homeostasis will only be discovered once there is another real economy like silk road that comes along

Until then buying bitcoins are a gamble.  If you wanna use bitcoin then exchange your fiat money right before and spend the bitcoin.
The price determines how much the economy can support. No amount of velocity is going to let you keep 10 billion in a 5 billion market cap economy.

Loans allow profitable businesses to take off. It also allows unprofitable ones to get started. If loans were not available less successful businesses would start up, but so would less failed ones. It would bring some measure of stability to the economy, and would force people to be very sure they knew what they were doing. Net result likely to be positive.

Supply is super important. I do not have the patience to baby you through this one at the moment.

Saving money is generally something that people who can't or won't do it complain about.

Everything involving money, or indeed resources of any kind, falls under speculation. Be more specific.

cul... ok i see. That kind of post. Alright.

There is not a $5 billion bitcoin economy.  You dont use market cap to measure economic output.

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