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Topic: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market (Read 3863 times)

mem
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 501
Herp Derp PTY LTD
April 26, 2012, 03:14:26 AM
#30
FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones  Cheesy. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices.

Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices.

Methinks you're going to be waiting a long time then.  Don't see china making counterfit FPGAs anytime soon;  Last I checked they weren't making counterfit AMD/Intel processors and that's a much more lucrative market.



I had a quick scout myself, they all seem stuck on the Spartan 3 atm - definitely no cheap spartan 6's floating around.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones  Cheesy. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices.

Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices.

Methinks you're going to be waiting a long time then.  Don't see china making counterfit FPGAs anytime soon;  Last I checked they weren't making counterfit AMD/Intel processors and that's a much more lucrative market.

member
Activity: 93
Merit: 10
FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones  Cheesy. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices.

Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices.
mem
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 501
Herp Derp PTY LTD
* all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment
Seriously? Roll Eyes Get back to school and study the math....just another troll on my ignore list  Grin

seriously - you disagree with someone and their instantly a troll ?

You kids that fail to grasp memes but shoehorn them into every retort you possibly can.
Shouldnt you be screeching on xbox live ?
hero member
Activity: 628
Merit: 504
* all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment
Seriously? Roll Eyes Get back to school and study the math....just another troll on my ignore list  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
FPGAs get new generations as well, as fast as GPUs.

They will always be more power effective and less cost effective. We are just using cheapo FPGAs which are mainly educational products slapped on prototyping boards. The industry either uses the high end range (1-5k USD per piece) in single quantities or low end stuff for consumer electronics.
High performance FPGAs will never be cost effective for bitcoin mining because after a certain volume you quickly arrive at costs equal to ASICs masks.

Time will tell when the first ones come out. But this isn't the end of the road either since bitcoin is the first application where wafer scale integration makes sense.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1222
brb keeping up with the Kardashians
This made me laugh.
Do you really think bitcoin mining is a big deal in the FPGA industry?
Sure, we'll see repurposing of obsolete hardware (like in the BFL singles) but major FPGA manufacturers designing bitcoin mining hardware? No chance.

Gotta love security through obscurity.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
I want to invest some money into mining but atm - all offerings have serious short comings.

All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years.
Unfortunately BFL's have a wait time of 3-4 months which also makes its ROI time over 1 year.
Were I to order one now I could expect to start using it August - Sept, just ~2-3 months shy of the reward being halved and I would have waited 4 months not earning anything from my investment.

Im looking at buying 1-2 ATI 7970's despite the massive power consumption I can still make money off them until the end of the year (I live in au, power is $0.22c/kwh) and then reuse the cards for gaming and my media pc.

My prediction for ~4-5 months into the future:

* all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment.
* Several FPGA's will simply be pulled from the market or sold at a loss when their ROI times go past 2 years (nearly there already for quite a few).
* China starts thrashing out FPGA's priced to put all western competition out of the market.
* Difficulty goes through the roof due to mass amounts of BFL's online and possibly vladmir and other companies as well.
** All current FPGA investors lose out horribly due a massive difficulty spike - ROI times go past 2 years, for large investors possibly 4 years.

This made me laugh.
Do you really think bitcoin mining is a big deal in the FPGA industry?
Sure, we'll see repurposing of obsolete hardware (like in the BFL singles) but major FPGA manufacturers designing bitcoin mining hardware? No chance.
full member
Activity: 169
Merit: 100
Green Mining 85% Cheaper
I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.



recent prices on ebay for used 7970's:

apr 17th - $415
apr 18th - $470
apr 18th - $530
apr 18th - $510
apr 19th - $423 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $435 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $405
apr 19th - $435
apr 20th - $420
apr 20th - $450
apr 21st - $515 (+ "variable shipping rate)

so you could sell those eight for maybe $475/ea on eBay (being generous), subtract the 9% eBay electronics fee + the paypal fee....  end up with around $430 (more likely, $20 or $30 less)?   you're down $800 since feb 23rd, 150BTC doesn't even cover that


I wouldn't sell them on Ebay first of all. I have gaming forums I belong to where I could get $450-$475 pretty easily with payments that are fee free. So lets just say $450 for each card. I am down $80 per card. I purchased an $80 motherboard for each rig, and a $8 stick of RAM, and I got the processors and harddrives/cables as freebies from work as they were junking out machines. I purchased a $250 powersupply for $200 and I know I can re-sell for $200 for each rig. Taking all that into account I would be down $640 in cards, $0 in supplies, $160 in boards, and $16 in RAM. So a grand total of $810 in "loss" right now.  That 150BTC that I just sold for $5.30 per covers most of the hardware depreciation cost so far. On top of that I have none of the Singles I bought since then. So I would have made zero money if I had just bought all BFL singles. I have no idea when the singles are going to show up.

I am still satisfied with my purchase of the 7970s. I played around with voltages and I am now down to 940W per 2.5GH/s.

Extrapolate your numbers until December 23 assuming $5 per BTC, 940W@$.06 per KW. Set the resale value of BFL to $0, and the resale value of the 7970 at $250. Let me know what you come up with. Also set the delivery date of my BFL singles to May 1st at the earliest.

Then move the price of recovery of the BFL single up until you get a break even point with the 7970s. Let me know what it would have to resell for, and when, for it to have been a better purchase than the 7970s.

I bought the XFX Black Edition 7970s, and I might have to go to $425 due to the price drop.
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.



recent prices on ebay for used 7970's:

apr 17th - $415
apr 18th - $470
apr 18th - $530
apr 18th - $510
apr 19th - $423 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $435 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $405
apr 19th - $435
apr 20th - $420
apr 20th - $450
apr 21st - $515 (+ "variable shipping rate)

so you could sell those eight for maybe $475/ea on eBay (being generous), subtract the 9% eBay electronics fee + the paypal fee....  end up with around $430 (more likely, $20 or $30 less)?   you're down $800 since feb 23rd, 150BTC doesn't even cover that
hero member
Activity: 535
Merit: 500
Opinions are like assholes.

So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ?
A year from now GPUs will be irrelevant.
Not with 0.05$ per kwh. In my case FPGa's are worst choice, until prices for them will be much lower.
hero member
Activity: 575
Merit: 500
Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW.

Hand those prices over to me right know, I have a soldering gun and I'm not afraid to use it  Angry
full member
Activity: 169
Merit: 100
Green Mining 85% Cheaper
I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down?

Kill-A-Watt says 1050. That is with no voltage changes or memory downclock.

Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW.
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Seal Cub Clubbing Club
I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down?
full member
Activity: 169
Merit: 100
Green Mining 85% Cheaper
I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.

legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double.

I'm not too worried about the reward dropping. Either the price will go up or the difficulty will go down (or both). Either way, the profitability will still be good for mining with energy efficient FPGAs.
legendary
Activity: 1379
Merit: 1003
nec sine labore
719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI

No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double.

And 25 quads it's a 18K EUR investment (even more if you have to pay VAT).

spiccioli


hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
I heart thebaron
I am interested to see what Lancelot brings to the table, seeing as how Icarus was such a success (and learning experience for the designer/engineer).

I have a feeling BFL might be in trouble if they are unable to satisfy the needs of the masses before ngzhang launches his new would-be? hashing monster.
mem
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 501
Herp Derp PTY LTD
Damn that is cheap power, Im so jealous.

Shame the icarus board has been discontinued, it does seem like a viable option especially with the cheaper power consumption,
Good luck with your mining  Grin
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