Topic: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market - page 2. (Read 3863 times)

.08/kwh


I got in on the bulk order, so the cost was only $469. I expect with adequate cooling I can run a 400 mhps bitstream on them. That puts the ROI at about 378 days.


They haven't arrived yet, but ETA looks like about 3 weeks.

So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ?


What is your power charged at if you dont mind me asking ?

looking at TP's calculator it puts  the Icarus at 467.9 days for ROI if you get free power.
So in reality if you want 100% return you should be looking at 900+ days.

http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1577913.4857&hashrate=380.00&exchangerate=5.02&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=569.00&powerconsumption=20.00&powercost=0.00&investmentperiod=365

How was shipping for your icarus ? quick ?

I picked up some Icaruses that'll break even in about 1 year. I expect them to last at least 2 years which puts the investment at over 100% return. I consider that most excellent.


Nobody has a warehouse of these things. Everyone is just doing small runs that are sold as soon as the orders are open for them.

Not many can play Dueling Banjos

Everyone likes the sound of their own but not anyone else's?

Ahh hurr duurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. No shit sherlock 
You cant really blame me for breathing air its called living.

my point is that they are running the risk of losing money with current prices and production volume.
Their ventures may simply not be profitable if they cannot shift enough volume in the next 6 months.
Investors venture would also most likely move from a ROI of 1 year to an ROI of at least 2, possibly 3.

If/Once the price tanks or difficulty sky rockets they will be left holding a warehouse of specialized devices whose only use is to lose money unless you have access to free electricity (ie solar).


Their order books are not swapped, they have less than 100 orders - for any company Id call that peanuts.


Indeed, I will be interested to see how quickly your order turns up.
Im still considering ordering one for a test myself, Id like to order 20 but alas their shipping times would need to be quicker for my to avoid a a long ROI.

You can't really blame board manufacturers for trying to make a profit. It's called capitalism.
If you want to have an inexpensive FPGA farm, design your own PCB and have the boards manufactured and assembled in China.
You don't even have to come up with your own bitstream - you can take one of the existing ones...

I really like the new ztex quad board and there is a price break at buying them, versus 4x single boards, but... I just put my BFL order in today for an undisclosed amount of singles. Even with the wait period of the BFL singles the ROI for me is still quicker than ordering anything else, receiving it instantly, and mining with it the next three to four months. If the quad Ztex boards were $800 USD I would have bought a quite a few of them instead of the BFL singles as they're more efficient and would have produced a quicker ROI.

I'm really not too sure how the market is going to do with the block reward drop and prices. We can speculate all we want, but in reality we're just going to have to wait it out. That's going to have a direct response on FPGA costs as well. The more profitable mining becomes the higher I see manufacturers slowly driving costs. We'll see....

Well you can't really expect them to sell them at a loss, especially when order books are swamped.

I want to invest some money into mining but atm - all offerings have serious short comings.

All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years.
Unfortunately BFL's have a wait time of 3-4 months which also makes its ROI time over 1 year.
Were I to order one now I could expect to start using it August - Sept, just ~2-3 months shy of the reward being halved and I would have waited 4 months not earning anything from my investment.

Im looking at buying 1-2 ATI 7970's despite the massive power consumption I can still make money off them until the end of the year (I live in au, power is $0.22c/kwh) and then reuse the cards for gaming and my media pc.

My prediction for ~4-5 months into the future:

* all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment.
* Several FPGA's will simply be pulled from the market or sold at a loss when their ROI times go past 2 years (nearly there already for quite a few).
* China starts thrashing out FPGA's priced to put all western competition out of the market.
* Difficulty goes through the roof due to mass amounts of BFL's online and possibly vladmir and other companies as well.
** All current FPGA investors lose out horribly due a massive difficulty spike - ROI times go past 2 years, for large investors possibly 4 years.