Topic: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest - page 1162. (Read 559712 times)

Really? I thought the chances for the jackpot hit is 1 in 10,000? Because isn't that just the only requirement, to hit 8888? I've seen plenty of 7777... although, come to think of it, I don't recall ever hitting any of the big bonuses in freerolls, when the 9995 and above should really mean 5 in 10,000 or 1 in 2000 or do the freeroll odds play differently? Just never thought about it actually!

Edge only matters in Multiply, not jackpot or freeroll right?

Edit: just saw the reply above mine. So now I know, 1 in 20,000. Seems okay

The odds of hitting 10000 are actually 20000:1 due to rounding. The possible outcomes are not 1 to 10000 they are 0 to 10000 with 0 and 10000 having half the chance being rolled than all the other numbers. Have a look at the how the rolls are calculated section on the provably fair tab.
As for the endless discussions from people saying it can't be fair because they didn't roll it in xxx attempts, that is just crying about variance.

Strictly speaking, I don't know about the jackpot

And when I was playing at FreeDoge I didn't notice any discrepancies or inconsistencies in this regard, so it may well be the same with FreeBitco. But I remember discussion in this very thread a couple years ago when people calculated the chances of hitting high numbers and they were far from what you would expect out of a uniform distribution

In other words, your odds of hitting 10000 are far from being 1:10000 (as you would intuitively expect). I rolled a zillion times myself and never hit the two highest numbers. So, you know, you wouldn't actually be surprised to see something like that with the jackpot as well. If anyone wants to check how things really are, you are welcome

That is simply untrue.

Do math, not meth

The longer you play, the higher are your chances to eventually hit the jackpot, even if the outcomes of individual rolls are independent of each other. It is the same with martingale, i.e. the longer you play, the sooner you will hit a losing streak that will wipe away your account (actually, not sooner but you get the point). Otherwise it wouldn't be a losing strategy, as simple as it gets. But that's not the point here. If you had been using FreeBitco.in long enough, you would have known that your chances of hitting 8888 may be a little bit different from 1:10000

What is usually missed about random seed generators is that if they were not random they would be predictable and if anyone was to work that out they would be able to exploit the Casino.



Exactly. The chances of hitting the jackpot are precisely 10000:1 every time you roll. Running any sort of test to try and prove that will only confirm the existence of variance however large your sample size is.

There is no chain of reaction on betting. Each bet is individual which something gamblers try to deny as hard as possible. 8888 is 1 in 10000 chance of hitting, it is 1 in chance of hitting on your first ever bet and on your 10000th bet it is still 1 in 10000 chance. There is no chain betting that will allow you to finally hit that. You can hit 8888 on your first ever bet or you may not hit it on your 100kth bet.

There is no way of playing long enough to eventually hit it. However, the only reason people think its possible is that if you play long enough you create yourself more 1 in 10000 chances than just one. Same applies to people who gamble martingale for example, they think they can't lose 10 times in a row but your 10th loss is actually still %50 loss chance and not lower.

Well, that in fact remains to be seen

I don't mean to say that the case described here has anything to do with what I speak of further, but it is in fact a real problem with "math being perfect" as in real life it is far from being perfect. In real life we are dealing with physical devices like random number generators which may or may not be entirely random (as with physical dice you refer to in your post). And I'm not even speaking of purely software ones which are called pseudo-random for a reason

I hope you understand that that was just a coincidence. If you were conducting your study on physical dice you could probably come up with some useful data because indeed physical dice, due to their imperfection, can land on one side more frequently than on the other. But math is perfect,  and since all the game in question is based on it, all outcomes have equal probability.

Care to read what the whole thing is about?

Do read, not write. Or at the very least, read first, write later if you can't help writing (and try to understand in between what the point in question is). This is not about playing thousands of bets for its own sake or whatever you might think of, it is about finding out the odds of hitting jackpot, the thing which you chose to ignore but didn't ignore to write your "wise" comment here

I don't see why anyone would play thousands of bets on auto mode with a 5% house edge...

The most numerous the bets the more important the house edge becomes.
Don't do drugs kids,  do maths. Not meth.

This is a really lame excuse you could ever come up with

As you don't need to track "those 8888 numbers" at all. If you hit the jackpot in the process, your balance will be increased immediately. The house edge is known, it is equal to 5%, and with so many rolls there will be very little variance. Therefore, if you wager 1 satoshi at each roll, your losses should be around 5000 satoshi on 99999 rolls. The jackpot cost is also known (with the lowest being 2 satoshi), so the whole thing will cost you around 205k satoshi minus the jackpots you may hit along the way. So more power to you in your testing journey (though don't forget to share your results here)

It can't be guessed, you have to experience it by play for real and study the system from it real outcome. This system you can't reduce any percentage to another percentage by ratio, the most important part is: some numbers tend to repeat itself more than other number for example, this come from my real statistic summarization: 9975 would appear much much more frequent than 9976 or 9974, 9999 would appear much more frequent than 10000 and 8888 would appear the least frequent, i see 10000 appear few times but not any matching count of 8888 in the collected statistic (~ 20millions result).

Grats on your win at Doge. I haven't tried multiplying on Doge, would do it soon.

But running the auto thingy for 99999 times, is there a way to track those 8888 numbers? Since I definitely won't spend time watching those rolls.

That's not the case

Well, technically, I don't know how it is with Bitcoin betting at FreeBitco.in but with its sibling (the one where you bet with doges) I hit jackpot pretty regularly in the past. Maybe it is different there, maybe it was different back in the day. Anyway, the odds are easy to check. You run an auto-bet like 99999 times with the minimum amount (not changing it on either win or loss) and see how often you will hit it (that won't cost you much). If odds are skewed (that will be easy to see), then you can start asking questions here

Haha, I'm not surprised! And the chances of striking a 8,888 is pretty much like 1 in a million. Even rarer than those bet IDs ending with postfixes/ prefixes.

That's a great idea, let's see what Quin says about this. But still, there are those who get triggered during a losing streak and immediately withdraw their investment funds

This is classic and I bet you a lot of people have experienced the same thing before. I usually configure a auto bet configuration, but the added cost to add the jackpots will clean you out in a matter of minutes if you not careful.

This is why I want Wetsuit to add a feature to separate your investment and gambling budget from your total bitcoins on the site.  

I've written about that above

To repeat, you either earn dust with losing streaks that are too long or end up burst pretty soon. I guess with 0.4% win chance and a losing streak of 2800, it would be equal to a win chance of 0.4x100=40% and a losing streak of 2800/100=28 rolls. But 28 losing rolls is not worth the risk as at any point you risk your whole amount while earning only dust when you win. Basically, no matter how you tweak the odds and amounts, it can always be reduced to these simple numbers (to make things easier to understand)

It is an open forum and they discuss what interests them. You've already been told countless times and heard people's opinions. Nobody thinks that if someone loses at gambling they are entitled to cheat the casino in return. I didn't steal anything from you, I caught you cheating free-rolls and referral income. Nobody thinks cheats are entitled to a refund. I can assure you no cheat that got away with a profit ever refunded anything to us.

Built-in martingale increase is too much, it would cost more than needed at higher loosing streak. Unless you write own script to bet on or use other bot already there from Seuntjie or broke_tradah but there is advantage and drawback of both. The earlier is open source and can gain trust from gamblers from malware but there is not enough calculation and feature of the bot later guy has. For the later, it somehow work but closed source and it is current & would't gaining trust from this community. I don't know why, but look like most of the people here defend the house, lol. Look like non-gamblers and/or people who hoping for free thing without cost/risk only.

Martingale on 1 satoshi plus profit of 1 satoshi every win, at first it look like too much risk for earning of 1 satoshi but actually it is not, due to rounding issue of the numbering system, depend on the streak you may get more than 1 satoshi profit at the time. Mixing of odds is also a point to consider, provided that the specified system is provably fair, and the numbers are from 0 to 10000. Mixing of high win chance and very low win chance will help too say 20% (less than 2000 or greater than 8000 to win) and 1% (less than 100 or greater than 9900 to win), most of the time the number would fall into 20% range and less of the time the number would fall into 1% range. You would bet on 20% most of the time, and by after random numbers of losing bet, continue to martingle with 1%.. catch up the spike to hope for a win.

For example, your 0.3 btc / 30 mil satoshi, say you are betting on 0.4% win chance or 237.50 odd. How big was the losing you've got at the time you were bursted? if you were able to scale this amount to withstand around 2800 losing streak, it is likely you would win in between.