Its both really, you do get 'given' golden tickets for every chunk of bets you do on the site. Naturally the largest bettors are going to hold the most tickets unless someone really makes an effort to manually buy them up or perhaps gets very lucky on the wheel spins. Im pretty sure the majority of gold tickets will come from sports bets and similar large regular revenue on the site.
Feb BTC price seems like it will stay below the 200 day average not yet strong enough overall to challenge and probably above the very lowest range we saw. Within boundaries basically, I dont reckon we get especially bullish or bearish just yet. I'll check out wheres the best odds, I dont especially favor either side
Again, I'm still happy that there are more bets on the "More than $1,000,000" than for the "$10,000 or less" bets. Hopefully, bitcoin will reach those price sooner.
Also consider the disparity in the payout. So yes 1 mil is unlikely I agree but just talking numbers, the payoff is 200x the multiple of the 5000 dollar bet. I would guess done properly that has to be weighted into any betting odds in terms of cost to profit. Anything can happen, that much I do think is more true then for generations previous and in finance, markets, macro economics we are talking tectonic change i.e. every bettable outcome remains valid.
So maybe I should put this through a betting calc but roughly speaking, consider for a second if all outcomes are equal and we are just equating each set of odds here:
If >1 mil was odds of 10 and either of the 5k bets were odds of 2000 they would be equal in simple terms or in dollar terms at that moment in time. Taken to the extreme if you could bet price is zero dollars if you will win the bet your value will be zero at that moment. In BTC terms you'd get paid loads and I think zero value is almost impossible (even bankrupt companies certain to give no value back still trade above zero almost always).
So look at the screenshot or the prior one and the 1 mil bettors in simple terms are betting far smarter then the 5k bets. Of course its not simple, I'm just mentioning we cant consider outcomes equal payback vs cost.
So on the odds quotes above, bet 1 BTC its 384, 4.4 & 8.45 million dollars value paid out (best case scenario ignoring time factor). So to weigh it up, we need the 5k month end event to be 45x more likely to happen then the 1m spike up. Some will say it is 45x more likely and in march 2020 we did fall that low but now it would be even harder to go that low where as breaking upwards past prior volume becomes easier, spikes can happen especially where shorts exist perhaps.