Its safe to assume because its easily within an average occurrence. I got 5000 a couple times already just on 1 spin a day and sometimes I forget to check and lose spins so I've not done that many, I got 500 earlier just anecdotally its not going to be unexpected to gain 20 of this win per year if trying 6 times a day.
I believe all the 5000 prizes are over 1% probability or 13m out 1 billion possibilities, bar the golden tickets the 500 and 50 are even more probable and likely to occur so its easy to speculate how much you might win of each after a year because it'll average out. 100k satoshi isnt a kings ransom about .66 gold grams now, its reasonable if you did play that much every day. Maybe we can test this out, the site can count my gifted wheel wins perhaps; some will be more lucky then this and some less but its entirely reasonable as an aspiration.
I agree its a multi year prospect in its price vs this consideration, almost anything is multi year and this one isnt half as ambitious as half the hopium prospects I see around. Someone who adverse to gambling, risk and any uncertainties is entirely unsuited to this area but I wonder how they stumbled onto a gambling site then I reckon crypto is always going to be transactional in its nature
68% probability is not a safe assumption of occurrence. Again, I'm not talking about limited number set anecdotes, I'm talking about hard math, and hard math will trump the handful of spins you've done every time. There is a high degree of variance the lower your data set is. 68% likelihood means something will probably happen, but it's a long way still from that thing actually happening and it's definitely not a guarantee.
We don't need your gifted wheel wins, we already have the probability table and as long as that is faithful, that's all you need. The math here is an exact science. Variance from the expectation is what you would call luck, but luck isn't what people invest on, and FUN is very much being pitched as an investment.