Silver has been charted for the last 650 years, as a form of currency:
http://www.goldsilverchat.com/BBchat/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=9396&start=0
Before that, it was used for over 500 years by the Roman Empire as Denarius:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denarius
So, for over a 1000 years, this amazing malleable metal has carried its precious weight in coinage. It has been very consistent throughout history in maintaining a monetary value of exchange, whether for bread, for timber, or for dollars.
As we enter into the virtual sphere of currency exchange, perhaps Bitcoin is the new Silver of the Millennium.
Topic: Fun Calculation For The Day (Read 2840 times)
if you assume it will replace all money....
this means
each bitcoin is worth ......... 1 / 21,000,000 of the worlds "money"
omg BUY BUY BUY
this means
each bitcoin is worth ......... 1 / 21,000,000 of the worlds "money"
omg BUY BUY BUY
So, here's some more fun with the numbers...one post asked whether it's simply the amount of gold that determines its value...the answer is no, it's the amount of gold (the supply) as well as the demand. Another post mentioned that the dollar would have a very different value in 10 years, but when we talk about a bitcoin being worth $200,000 in 10 years, we are talking about its purchasing power as measured in today's dollars. So, that statement means that in 10 years you would be able to purchase with 1 bitcoin what can be purchased today for $200,000.
So, let's suppose that people did eventually come to value bitcoin similarly to gold (there are plenty of reasons one could argue that bitcoin is a pretty good gold substitute, but I won't here). Based on the OP's numbers and assuming a worldwide population of 7 billion, the amount of gold held on average by each individual is ~0.76 ounces. At $1500 that's a value of $1140. If everyone we're to take half of that gold wealth and put it into bitcoin, that's $570 of gold and $570 of bitcoin on average for everyone on the planet. $570 * 7,000,000,000 / 21,000,000 = $190,000.
So, yeah, I guess you're right, it probably won't be worth $200,000 in 10 years.
So, let's suppose that people did eventually come to value bitcoin similarly to gold (there are plenty of reasons one could argue that bitcoin is a pretty good gold substitute, but I won't here). Based on the OP's numbers and assuming a worldwide population of 7 billion, the amount of gold held on average by each individual is ~0.76 ounces. At $1500 that's a value of $1140. If everyone we're to take half of that gold wealth and put it into bitcoin, that's $570 of gold and $570 of bitcoin on average for everyone on the planet. $570 * 7,000,000,000 / 21,000,000 = $190,000.
So, yeah, I guess you're right, it probably won't be worth $200,000 in 10 years.
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
everytime i look at your name i see "groinkoin".
must be my twisted nature.
Think of 'kloink!' every time a bitcoin enters my account.
'KLOINK'! There's another coin ('koln')
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anyways its doesn't hurt to dream!
Of course it doesn't, it's fun! And dreaming is necessary for a happy life. I am still trying to figure out how much a Bitcoin weighs... It's not in the wiki.
It weighs thousands of forumposts.
Close. It weights the internet. Plus a few mining rigs.
I am still trying to figure out how much a Bitcoin weighs... It's not in the wiki.
It weighs thousands of forumposts.
So when will 1 BTC equal one BTC?
Shortly after the world finally realizes that credit cards should be abolished for the good of society.
Plastic is not the problem, fiat currency is. We'll still have credit cards in a bitcoin world - one will always be able to borrow now for higher repayment in the future. And a plastic card you can swipe at a store is extremely convenient, thus the market will demand it (unless mobile credit payments become easier which is very probable).
Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be a next gen currency? I'm not understanding why it's being compared to a commodity.
There are a few people who hope it one days becomes a currency. Right now it's just a pump and dump. Note all the threads that were talking about how boring it was when the price was "stable" for 2-3 days. And the biggest activity in the marketplace subforum here are gambling ponzi schemes.
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Believing one Bitcoin will be at parity with 254 ounces of gold is beyond delusional.
Whats the harm in promoting that a worthless set of characters in a text file will soon be able to buy you entire cities? I mean, it's not like people bought $50,000 worth of hardware specifically to...oh nm.
So the price of gold is completely based on how much there is?
I think we're talking about what's realistic and probable, not what's not-impossible.
People do tend to overestimate the probability of some very rare events (that's why they play the lottery) but then again, market prices often reflects psychology as well, so - who knows...I was just pointing out that your claim of some estimation being "unreasonable" is as hard to justify as everyone's else. Nobody knows the future, but if you already experienced a very rare event (dramatic price increase in short time) it is at least reasonable to think about possible underlying mechanisms which might have made the event not so improbable as you initially thought it to be.
Anyway, I personally don't think Bitcoin will ever be valued that high.
p(btc >= 200,000$) > p(btc == 0$), I would say
Finally we're talking numbers 
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
Do you think it's reasonable for the earth to be spherical? Do you really think humans could survive travelling at speed greater than 30 kilometers per hour? Do you think it's reasonable for information to travel through air without a wire?
I'm not saying it will happen, but man, if you see no possibility that it might, you seriously lack some imagination. Did your mother not tell you about having dreams? Or maybe hollywood?
p(btc >= 200,000$) > p(btc == 0$), I would say
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
everytime i look at your name i see "groinkoin".
must be my twisted nature.anyways its doesn't hurt to dream!
Here's a fun calculation: There are 166,000 tonnes of gold in the world (source: World Gold Council). Each tonne consists of 32,150 troy ounces for a total of 5,336,900,000 ounces. Divide that amount by the eventual total number of bitcoin (21,000,000) and you get 254 ounces of gold per bitcoin. With gold at a US dollar value of $1,600 that would equate to $406,400 per bitcoin.
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea... What do you think?
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
What do you think?Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be a next gen currency? I'm not understanding why it's being compared to a commodity. And specifically, gold. Why not silver? Or copper? All which have real world uses and thousands of years of history as a store of value.
Believing one Bitcoin will be at parity with 254 ounces of gold is beyond delusional.
So when will 1 BTC equal one BTC?
Shortly after the world finally realizes that credit cards should be abolished for the good of society.
Here's a fun calculation: There are 166,000 tonnes of gold in the world (source: World Gold Council). Each tonne consists of 32,150 troy ounces for a total of 5,336,900,000 ounces. Divide that amount by the eventual total number of bitcoin (21,000,000) and you get 254 ounces of gold per bitcoin. With gold at a US dollar value of $1,600 that would equate to $406,400 per bitcoin.
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea... What do you think?
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
What do you think?It might happen that bitcoin grabs quite a share from gold as globally accepted store of value, but at that time, I predict we won't be measuring it's value in $. We would generally measure value of stuff in BTC.
So when will 1 BTC equal one BTC?
And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...
Do you think he was talking about non-zero probability when he said:
"So, I like to think in terms of bitcoin reaching parity with gold, which would put its value at half the figure you came up with (or ~$200,000/btc). But I think it will take at least 10 years to get there."
And then someone else jumped in to say that value might be understated? I think we're talking about what's realistic and probable, not what's not-impossible.
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
0% probability for bitcoin value to fall under 0 USD. :p
Oh what limited imagination you have But I'll give you that - I think we can round those cases to 0%
Well, we already witnessed 100-fold increases within 7 months - would it have been reasonable to predict that back then?
Nobody knows the future - we can only try to make good use of the historical data we have and of the mechanisms we believe to be at work for the future.
And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...
0% probability for bitcoin value to fall under 0 USD. :p Nobody knows the future - we can only try to make good use of the historical data we have and of the mechanisms we believe to be at work for the future.
And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...
Well, we already witnessed 100-fold increases within 7 months - would it have been reasonable to predict that back then?
Nobody knows the future - we can only try to make good use of the historical data we have and of the mechanisms we believe to be at work for the future.
And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...
Nobody knows the future - we can only try to make good use of the historical data we have and of the mechanisms we believe to be at work for the future.
And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...
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