You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
Why not?
Topic: Fun Calculation For The Day - page 2. (Read 2898 times)
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"How do you eat an elephant? One bit at a time..."
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
Why not?
You all had some education at some point. Did you skip out on critical thinking class? You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?
hero member
Activity: 836
Merit: 1007
"How do you eat an elephant? One bit at a time..."
Why do you guys assume that the value of gold will stay at $1500/ounce? Bitcoin could easily exceed $10mio if the USD lost its global credibility.
Whether or not it ever reaches market share parity with gold is another issue... who knows. Perhaps one day the digitial nature will be seen as a boon rather than bane.
Whether or not it ever reaches market share parity with gold is another issue... who knows. Perhaps one day the digitial nature will be seen as a boon rather than bane.
No assumption here. I'm certain the money-printing will continue and these calculations could very well be understated!
Why do you guys assume that the value of gold will stay at $1500/ounce? Bitcoin could easily exceed $10mio if the USD lost its global credibility.
Whether or not it ever reaches market share parity with gold is another issue... who knows. Perhaps one day the digitial nature will be seen as a boon rather than bane.
Whether or not it ever reaches market share parity with gold is another issue... who knows. Perhaps one day the digitial nature will be seen as a boon rather than bane.
hero member
Activity: 836
Merit: 1007
"How do you eat an elephant? One bit at a time..."
Here's a fun calculation: There are 166,000 tonnes of gold in the world (source: World Gold Council). Each tonne consists of 32,150 troy ounces for a total of 5,336,900,000 ounces. Divide that amount by the eventual total number of bitcoin (21,000,000) and you get 254 ounces of gold per bitcoin. With gold at a US dollar value of $1,600 that would equate to $406,400 per bitcoin.
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
What do you think?
This calculation implies bitcoin completely replacing gold. I think that's unlikely. However, bitcoin will take market share from gold and other forms of money. And it will eventually be valued higher than gold due to its utility for commerce, it's decentralized nature, and its secure design (assuming we don't find any fatal technical flaws). So, I like to think in terms of bitcoin reaching parity with gold, which would put its value at half the figure you came up with (or ~$200,000/btc). But I think it will take at least 10 years to get there.32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
What do you think?My thoughts exactly.
Here's a fun calculation: There are 166,000 tonnes of gold in the world (source: World Gold Council). Each tonne consists of 32,150 troy ounces for a total of 5,336,900,000 ounces. Divide that amount by the eventual total number of bitcoin (21,000,000) and you get 254 ounces of gold per bitcoin. With gold at a US dollar value of $1,600 that would equate to $406,400 per bitcoin.
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea... What do you think?
This calculation implies bitcoin completely replacing gold. I think that's unlikely. However, bitcoin will take market share from gold and other forms of money. And it will eventually be valued higher than gold due to its utility for commerce, it's decentralized nature, and its secure design (assuming we don't find any fatal technical flaws). So, I like to think in terms of bitcoin reaching parity with gold, which would put its value at half the figure you came up with (or ~$200,000/btc). But I think it will take at least 10 years to get there. 32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
What do you think?
Most probably not - as with Bitcoin's intrinsic value due to the properties making it suitable for online transactions, gold has intrinsic value due to its perceived beauty and its industrial applications. Therefore neither gold nor Bitcoin will drop to zero for the foreseeable future and they also won't replace each other fully, as your calculation seems to imply.
But if Bitcoin ever reaches a mainstream reputation similar to gold regarding its usefulness as a store of value, we can probably expect price increases at the cost of the gold price.
But if Bitcoin ever reaches a mainstream reputation similar to gold regarding its usefulness as a store of value, we can probably expect price increases at the cost of the gold price.
hero member
Activity: 836
Merit: 1007
"How do you eat an elephant? One bit at a time..."
Here's a fun calculation: There are 166,000 tonnes of gold in the world (source: World Gold Council). Each tonne consists of 32,150 troy ounces for a total of 5,336,900,000 ounces. Divide that amount by the eventual total number of bitcoin (21,000,000) and you get 254 ounces of gold per bitcoin. With gold at a US dollar value of $1,600 that would equate to $406,400 per bitcoin.
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea... What do you think?
32150 x 166000 = 5,336,900,000 oz / 21,000,000 = 254 oz per 1 BTC or 254 x $1,600 gold = $406,400 per BTC
Do I think a bitcoin will eventually be worth $406, 400? I have no idea...
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