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Topic: Fundamental Analysis Speculation (Read 1685 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
May 03, 2013, 12:46:41 AM
#33
100 is neglijable. Also 1000. Not all the people in the world would use BTC, as not all would use gold.

Also, the lost BTC will be felt, as in not being traded, not having any value

That isn't what this is about, it is the uncertainly of supposedly lost coins which is the issue. Remember the 78% of all coins ever never moved paper?
Now we could say that some fraction of these coins are most likely lost, but how large is it?

We have no way of knowing. Infinitely deflating currency can only work for either:
a limited time period and/or a limited economy
or if there is a mechanism of ensuring that some previously assumed "lost" substantial value doesn't suddenly resurface.

There may be some mechanism which could be implemented like a maximum transaction amount but I doubt this would be very well received by most.

Yes!

I was saying this yesterday. Eventually too many coins will be "lost" but we will never know exactly how many. The risk will become greater and greater as there is a chance that those coins could become "unlost" and crash the bitcoin economy.

Perhaps a solution is to require that coins move wallets every set amount of time, to prove that someone still has the private key to the wallet that holds them. If they aren't moved in some amount of time (like five years or something) they get deactivated by the system. Anyone wishing to save bitcoins could simply pass them back and forth between two wallets they own every once in a while. Or maybe sign a document with the wallet keys that hold the coins. It's too late to add this feature to bitcoin but maybe some future crypto currency will have it.

This would be unpopular - especially for those who hold physical coins such as Casascius or Bitbills.
It would be much less drastic to adjust the fee mechanism to take into account coin age - and  restrict the rate at which old lost coins come back into circulation by making it most cost effective to trickle them in.
It wouldn't stop someone who had a vast fortune spread across many separate private keys, flooding them back in - but it may stop sudden liquidity shocks, whilst not actually 'taking' money from people who have old coins but are patient.
This would probably be tricky to implement - and if not easily understood - may also be unpopular. You're right that this sort of thing would probably first appear on some other blockchain, and I suspect only if it's demonstrated to be a problem for the Bitcoin economy.







hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
May 03, 2013, 12:00:06 AM
#32
100 is neglijable. Also 1000. Not all the people in the world would use BTC, as not all would use gold.

Also, the lost BTC will be felt, as in not being traded, not having any value

That isn't what this is about, it is the uncertainly of supposedly lost coins which is the issue. Remember the 78% of all coins ever never moved paper?
Now we could say that some fraction of these coins are most likely lost, but how large is it?

We have no way of knowing. Infinitely deflating currency can only work for either:
a limited time period and/or a limited economy
or if there is a mechanism of ensuring that some previously assumed "lost" substantial value doesn't suddenly resurface.

There may be some mechanism which could be implemented like a maximum transaction amount but I doubt this would be very well received by most.

Yes!

I was saying this yesterday. Eventually too many coins will be "lost" but we will never know exactly how many. The risk will become greater and greater as there is a chance that those coins could become "unlost" and crash the bitcoin economy.

Perhaps a solution is to require that coins move wallets every set amount of time, to prove that someone still has the private key to the wallet that holds them. If they aren't moved in some amount of time (like five years or something) they get deactivated by the system. Anyone wishing to save bitcoins could simply pass them back and forth between two wallets they own every once in a while. Or maybe sign a document with the wallet keys that hold the coins. It's too late to add this feature to bitcoin but maybe some future crypto currency will have it.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
May 02, 2013, 10:03:20 PM
#31
People deal with far greater uncertainties in fiat currency.

I think you need to separate your concerns: A great currency and a fair world.

As they say: There should be a way to have our cake and eat it.

In an ideal world yes.

But don't become anorexic while trying.

Seriously -- I believe that the world's problems can't be solved through economics. In my mind, the USA is kindof a case in point. Equal rights and assured access to basics (e.g. education & healthcare) should be higher priorities than the success or failure of any economic model. Maybe I am just naiive, but I don't like seeing the tail wagging the dog.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 10:00:10 PM
#30
Quote
No to really change the world we need something better, humbler, deeper. I only wish everybody here had read Neil Stephenson's Novels...

I am a big Stephenson fan, and I am re-reading Cryptonomicon right now to give me a different frame for looking at Bitcoin. In your mind, what makes the fictional e-banking system they plan on running through the Crypt 'better & deeper' than the possibilities of Bitcoin?


Some way to form a social structure around it, in Diamond Age banking was tied to being a member of a phyle, It should encourage more cooperation in contrast to competition, IDK, but if I knew exactly I would probably be busy trying to code it,
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 09:54:40 PM
#29
78% of coins not moved paper? I don't know about that.
I was big news, I can vividly remember the reactions, mostly scepticism at first and then denial.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/

Being one of the maybe first 10,000 btc users, I am also assuming that many, MANY btc are lost forever. How? Deleted, when people got bored with mining. My assumption? somewhere from 2 to 4 mil coins

Well there should be at least one possibility to narrow that down somewhat: The coins generated before the advent of mining pools. Because once you bother with pooled mining you are most likely in it to stay,

You know what would be cool: To give everybody an incentive to move their coins at least once a year or so, whatever that may be.
newbie
Activity: 35
Merit: 0
May 02, 2013, 09:53:54 PM
#28
Quote
No to really change the world we need something better, humbler, deeper. I only wish everybody here had read Neil Stephenson's Novels...

I am a big Stephenson fan, and I am re-reading Cryptonomicon right now to give me a different frame for looking at Bitcoin. In your mind, what makes the fictional e-banking system they plan on running through the Crypt 'better & deeper' than the possibilities of Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 09:50:35 PM
#27
People deal with far greater uncertainties in fiat currency.

I think you need to separate your concerns: A great currency and a fair world.

As they say: There should be a way to have our cake and eat it.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
May 02, 2013, 09:46:40 PM
#26
100 is neglijable. Also 1000. Not all the people in the world would use BTC, as not all would use gold.

Also, the lost BTC will be felt, as in not being traded, not having any value

That isn't what this is about, it is the uncertainly of supposedly lost coins which is the issue. Remember the 78% of all coins ever never moved paper?
Now we could say that some fraction of these coins are most likely lost, but how large is it?

We have no way of knowing. Infinitely deflating currency can only work for either:
a limited time period and/or a limited economy
or if there is a mechanism of ensuring that some previously assumed "lost" substantial value doesn't suddenly resurface.

There may be some mechanism which could be implemented like a maximum transaction amount but I doubt this would be very well received by most.

People deal with far greater uncertainties in fiat currency.

I think you need to separate your concerns: A great currency and a fair world.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
May 02, 2013, 09:45:20 PM
#25
78% of coins not moved paper? I don't know about that.
I was big news, I can vividly remember the reactions, mostly scepticism at first and then denial.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/

Being one of the maybe first 10,000 btc users, I am also assuming that many, MANY btc are lost forever. How? Deleted, when people got bored with mining. My assumption? somewhere from 2 to 4 mil coins
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 02, 2013, 09:39:29 PM
#24
How is that a surprise? Most of my coins are in cold storage.

Most of my dollars also.  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 09:36:01 PM
#23
78% of coins not moved paper? I don't know about that.
I was big news, I can vividly remember the reactions, mostly scepticism at first and then denial.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
May 02, 2013, 09:32:53 PM
#22
78% of coins not moved paper? I don't know about that.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 09:27:43 PM
#21
100 is neglijable. Also 1000. Not all the people in the world would use BTC, as not all would use gold.

Also, the lost BTC will be felt, as in not being traded, not having any value

That isn't what this is about, it is the uncertainly of supposedly lost coins which is the issue. Remember the 78% of all coins ever never moved paper?
Now we could say that some fraction of these coins are most likely lost, but how large is it?

We have no way of knowing. Infinitely deflating currency can only work for either:
a limited time period and/or a limited economy
or if there is a mechanism of ensuring that some previously assumed "lost" substantial value doesn't suddenly resurface.

There may be some mechanism which could be implemented like a maximum transaction amount but I doubt this would be very well received by most.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
May 02, 2013, 09:15:36 PM
#20
I am agnostic on the long term prospects of Bitcoin itself.
That means I think it isn't possible to tell because the amount of chaos influencing it exceeds the amount if certainty by such an amount.

Fair enough. From my limited experience it seems to me that humanity has begun to make significant progress in finding tools that empower and liberate, and I don't see how we could fail to eventually put something like bitcoin to good use. I guess I am an optimistc agnostic in that case Smiley I do agree there is a large amount of chaos that one can only wish to unravel. But I think most large complex systems are this way.

Here is the thing: I don't view the way Bitcoin itself is implemented as particularly liberating for the whole world economy.

I always like to tell the hypothetical anecdote of the 100BTC hard-drive in some land-fill in 2050 when one BTC is supposed to be more than the annual earning of a middle class family. If that hard-drive isn't found and it surface in 2100 it might turn the economy into turmoil.
Freedom fighters in the past didn't have vouchers to inherit their decedents, and with good reason.

No to really change the world we need something better, humbler, deeper. I only wish everybody here had read Neil Stephenson's Novels...

100 is neglijable. Also 1000. Not all the people in the world would use BTC, as not all would use gold.

Also, the lost BTC will be felt, as in not being traded, not having any value
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 08:42:28 PM
#19
I am agnostic on the long term prospects of Bitcoin itself.
That means I think it isn't possible to tell because the amount of chaos influencing it exceeds the amount if certainty by such an amount.

Fair enough. From my limited experience it seems to me that humanity has begun to make significant progress in finding tools that empower and liberate, and I don't see how we could fail to eventually put something like bitcoin to good use. I guess I am an optimistc agnostic in that case Smiley I do agree there is a large amount of chaos that one can only wish to unravel. But I think most large complex systems are this way.

Here is the thing: I don't view the way Bitcoin itself is implemented as particularly liberating for the whole world economy.

I always like to tell the hypothetical anecdote of the 100BTC hard-drive in some land-fill in 2050 when one BTC is supposed to be more than the annual earning of a middle class family. If that hard-drive isn't found and it surface in 2100 it might turn the economy into turmoil.
Freedom fighters in the past didn't have vouchers to inherit their decedents, and with good reason.

No to really change the world we need something better, humbler, deeper. I only wish everybody here had read Neil Stephenson's Novels...
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 08:19:08 PM
#18
Bitcoin finding its niche right now is like saying the internet had found its niche in 1990. The story is far too young. I am not saying that bitcoin will take over the world. I'm just saying the world has not fully processed this development, and since it's quite a dense (filled with content -- not stupid) read, it will take some time for this processing to occur.

Bitcoin isn't something like the Internet. It is something like cern httpd. A proof of concept of something which can potentially change the world.
The www has changed the world, but if we were to use httpd in our current time that would be silly.


You are saying bitcoin will be expanded upon with higher level monetary layers, improved, or serve as the proof of concept for a better system that could flourish and change the world, which directly contradicts the idea that bitcoin has currently settled into its niche. It sounds like you are a cautious long term bull who likes being short term bear. Not that I don't find that unreasonable, I just wish you would stop pretending you are bearish long term.

I am agnostic on the long term prospects of Bitcoin itself.
That means I think it isn't possible to tell because the amount of chaos influencing it exceeds the amount if certainty by such an amount.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 07:58:39 PM
#17
Bitcoin finding its niche right now is like saying the internet had found its niche in 1990. The story is far too young. I am not saying that bitcoin will take over the world. I'm just saying the world has not fully processed this development, and since it's quite a dense (filled with content -- not stupid) read, it will take some time for this processing to occur.

Bitcoin isn't something like the Internet. It is something like cern httpd. A proof of concept of something which can potentially change the world.
The www has changed the world, but if we were to use httpd in our current time that would be silly.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
May 02, 2013, 07:57:02 PM
#16
Extremely interesting read (your long answer to wobber). Thanks. And if you ever turn bull again, let us know.

That said, I find the statement below unlikely. A bigger market cap probably doesn't entirely suppress volatility, but it's quite unintuitive to think the two would be completely unrelated: two big factors in today's violent price swings are, in my opinion, individual traders with large amounts of fiat and btc playing the market, and fresh-faced newbies, trying to get in at all costs. Both factors will have less impact on the price if large, institutional investors would enter the market.

[...] One Bitcoin can be worth tens of thousands of dollars and still jump up and down in orders of magnitude over the course of a year.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
May 02, 2013, 07:44:08 PM
#15
You guys are the new Proudhon?
The future never looked so bright for Bitcoin! (Please note I didn't talk about price here.)

ElectricMucus, I'm wondering...
What's your opinion of the alt-coins, if you're so... let's say "dull" about Bitcoin.

No I'm not the new Proudhon. I will not make any promises regarding the price within any significant timeframe. You won't have me "calling the top" or such silly things.

Alt-coins are great for speculative gains. I'd say they have the potential to reach the same market cap as bitcoin if you add them all together. As for now there isn't really any coin which I would consider an innovation.
But the concept of crypto-currencies has a great potential, and if it does release that potential I think that during this decade some concept which is not in itself based on Bitcoin will surpass it, if even consume it.
I wouldn't bet on it though.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 02, 2013, 07:37:19 PM
#14
You guys are the new Proudhon?
The future never looked so bright for Bitcoin! (Please note I didn't talk about price here.)

ElectricMucus, I'm wondering...
What's your opinion of the alt-coins, if you're so... let's say "dull" about Bitcoin.
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