Topic: Fundamental Analysis Speculation - page 2. (Read 1654 times)

I've never gotten a satisfactory response as to whatever happened to that guy. Last I remember he was trying to get some sort of Bitcoin Conference in Pattaya, largely because he'd have open access to backdooring young Thai ladyboys.

The best part of Bruce Wagner was the "conference" he held in New York. It was billed as this super-organized, polished event (you know,  the same overselling of nearly everything Bitcoin-related) and the few pictures and "live feed" from the "event" showed it to be a room with a few chairs and tables and was filled with a smattering of people who looked like this was the first thing to break them away from the computer in their mom's basement for the past 10 years. Think LukeJr. An overpromoted dissappointment (much like every star-studded Bitcoin venture since).

But at the same time, I can't fault the optimism - it was new, Wagner was a dedicated con-artist and it seemed as if things were progressing.

It's hard to buy in to the optimism here now, and I'm willing to bet that many of the folks that populate this board, and lauding it as the next coming of Christ, are new to BTC.

Volatility can not be fixed with a technical solution imo. Only when the social structure of it's userbase transforms into it's final state it can happen.

What that is I already enumerated above. One Bitcoin can be worth tens of thousands of dollars and still jump up and down in orders of magnitude over the course of a year.

People have forgotten the drama surrounding Bruce Wagner and Bitcoinica. The vast majority of investors today have never heard of either. The bubble was not a surprise. I was a little surprised on how and why it popped but in retrospect I shouldn't have been.

Yes. bitcoin is volatile. It is volatile because it has insufficient market cap. And it is volatile because there isn't a robust trading platform for it. For example. it is too hard to short it. I personally believe that coinlab can save bitcoin if they do it right. If they make it easier for the average (Amercian, at least) investor to buy and sell bitcoins and also provide a way to short bitcoins, we'll be much better off. Shorting will help make bitcoin much less volatile and easier trading will let more people get involved and raise the market cap. And as bitcoin finds it's niche. it will become less volatile as there will be less pure speculation. And right now it is almost all speculation.

I personally believe that bitcoin has a good future as an inflation-proof store of value once it gets less volatile.

Finally, a sensible, even-keeled understanding of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not going to bring a new world order.

Bitcoin is not going to bring down the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin, or more likely a successor (which isn't so limited in available coins), will provide utility in allowing for pseudonymity with online transactions - a true equivalent of cash-in-envelopes transactions for the internet. And for this reason will hold some value.

Why do people always ask about fundamentals. There are NO fundamentals. Bitcoin is pure bubble, it is pure speculation. You can not apply the typical currency or security fundamentals to bitcoin! There is no country behind it, no GDP, no interests rates, no revenue, no liabilities, no assets. no nothing.

Throw all of that out the window. You can't "predict" the appropriate price of bitcoin using it. Everyone here is speculating based on how successful they feel bitcoin will be in the future. And no one knows for sure at all.

Scammer will always be in every community. Bitcoin is the best thing for paying (anonymously) over the web. This is fundamental fact #1

That wasn't really certain, he said to be connected to mybitcoin and them running away with half the funds but that wasn't that of a concern, at least for me.

I was the kind of back ground he came from, what a kind of person he was and such. For me he became a symbol for a certain kind of person present in our community.
People who aren't really into the technology, aren't into e-commerce or aren't into trading as such, which is all great.

These people remind me of used car salesmen, if you understand what I mean... Generating a hype as a means end, making up stuff selling cool-aid, shilling for the press, etc..

So what happened with Bruce and his whole Bitcoin show? I heard he scammed people or something?

It changed very much over the time.
Initially I was your run-of the mill bull, hoping that bitcoin will change the world. Then after witnessing the whole drama surrounding Bruce Wagner, the advent of Bitcoinica I became very bearish. That attitude hasn't changed since. Still I kind of anticipated this bubble, although I didn't really capitalize as much on it ("only" 10x before the pop, which I have increased some since). You guessed it I think we are still in Bubble territory.
I became largely annoyed by the thing we call the cargo cult: Guys playing financial experts, playing monopoly man and chanting the gospel of Bitcoin to be the biggest best thing ever.

I don't really believe in things like Bitpay, other payment processing, Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin "Supernodes" or Bitcoin stock exchanges. I think Bitcoin is an incredible useful tool as a financing model for non-profit websites, small webhosts, oh and of course Silk Road and the rest of the online black market. I also like Satoshi Dice and Seals with Clubs, great. Bitcoin has already found it's niche. It can be incredibly successful in it, possibly it can even sustain prices like we have seen this month in a few years.
But the gold-rush mentality has to stop. Bitcoin currently doesn't work as a currency not because it has insufficient market cap but because the crazy price swings make it unsuited to use it as such unless absolutely necessary.

That is as I would like Bitcoin to be, idealistically. For me personally the more dumb money there is in it the better. The volatility is incredibly predictable which is great for my way of trading, I kind of expect it to last as long as the current paradigm of the hype way of doing things holds.

ElectricMucus - what is your opinion on BTC and it's price in general. I'm asking because you're the most efervescent here and I really want to know.

+1

I can bet "99,999% cyprus people never heard what is Bitcoin(word bitcoin WTF?) ?"

Cyprus hadn't had and effect except that existing Bitcoiners saw a reason to buy in more.


If you are looking for fundamentals look for websites accepting BTC directly as a donation to pay for hosting costs.

In 2013 bitcoin has more mainstream attention than ever before. With good and bad sides. Cyprus crisis had a major role in the price change. Cyprus being just a small island. What can happen if Greece has the same issues?

Also, what will happen this year with all the exposure? People do forget fast, but that's why we have internet. Bitcoin will sooner or later reappear on their screens. And then what?

It seems we are in the very beginning and people think it's already over. One single major exchange, one major btc-only business, a few people controlling large amounts of coins.

Just wait for the next little economic shock. People will run away from banks and fiat. Now they have options.